VaultingChemist said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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Research article on Washington State patient, 35-year-old male that visited family in Wuhan.

First Case of 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the United States

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On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient's clinical condition improved. Supplemental oxygen was discontinued, and his oxygen saturation values improved to 94 to 96% while he was breathing ambient air. The previous bilateral lower-lobe rales were no longer present. His appetite improved, and he was asymptomatic aside from intermittent dry cough and rhinorrhea. As of January 30, 2020, the patient remains hospitalized. He is afebrile, and all symptoms have resolved with the exception of his cough, which is decreasing in severity.

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The concerning part is that the patient required a significant amount of hospitalization with supplemental oxygen to recover.

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Somehow, I missed the really important part. An experimental drug used to fight the Ebola virus, remdesivir, was crucial in helping the patient recover.

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Given the radiographic findings, the decision to administer oxygen supplementation, the patient's ongoing fevers, the persistent positive 2019-nCoV RNA at multiple sites, and published reports of the development of severe pneumonia3,4 at a period consistent with the development of radiographic pneumonia in this patient, clinicians pursued compassionate use of an investigational antiviral therapy. Treatment with intravenous remdesivir (a novel nucleotide analogue prodrug in development10,11) was initiated on the evening of day 7, and no adverse events were observed in association with the infusion.

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From Gilead, the maker of remdesivir:

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"To my knowledge, this is the first reported case in the world where this drug has been used against this virus," Jay Cook, chief medical officer at the center, told reporters on a conference call Friday. "At the time, we felt the benefits of using this drug outweighed whatever potential risk there might be and we obtained his informed consent."

The patient's pneumonia appeared to improve within a day, with no obvious side effects, after the intravenous drug was administered, his doctors reported in the New England Journal of Medicine Friday. The finding should encourage randomized, controlled clinical trials to determine its safety and efficacy for treating 2019-nCoV infections, they said.
The drug was approved for use on compassionate grounds. It's not licensed or approved anywhere in the world, and hasn't been demonstrated to be safe or effective for any use, Foster City, California-based Gilead said in a statement.

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Granted this is a sample size of 1, but if remdesivir cures nCV2019, that is AWESOME news

Disclaimer: I don't believe this is true but I'm not following this like others on this thread.

I might blueve believe 150k infected and 5k dead in China, but 100k dead? That's even out there for me.

Isn't supposed to be a thumbs up.

JJMt said:

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It is not accurate to use total deaths to date divided by total cases to date since the folks that died today first contracted the virus several days ago when the total number of cases was lower. That's the discouraging news.

The encouraging news is that the total number of deaths outside of China, for which we have hard numbers, is only 1, I believe. In addition, to date, there has only been minimal person to person transmission outside of China.

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Interesting that the first case in the U.S. was almost a death statistic except for the use of an experimental drug for "compassionate reasons".

Dr Campbell explaining why the mortality rate is somewhere between 2% and 50%

Bobcat06 said:

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In the video, Dr. Campbell reviews stats from the Lancet nCoV study. Based upon Lancet modelling the estimated number infected in Wuhan is ~75,000 as of 31 Jan. In Wuhan the peak of the epidemic isn't reached until 20 April.

Also says that the rest of China is ~2 weeks behind Wuhan. The West is ~2 weeks behind the rest of China.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html

Hate this rag but there are very alarming quotes from very credible titles in it.

Paywalled. Care to post the highlights?

JJMt said:

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cbr said:

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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html

Hate this rag but there are very alarming quotes from very credible titles in it.

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And there are some not-so-very-alarming quotes from very credible titles in it, as well. Please be sure to post both sets.

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"It's very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic," said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

"But will it be catastrophic? I don't know."

It is "increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained," said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who now runs Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit devoted to fighting epidemics.

"It is therefore likely that it will spread, as flu and other organisms do, but we still don't know how far, wide or deadly it will be."

Other experts were more cautious.

Dr. Michael Ryan, head of emergency responses for the World Health Organization, said in an interview with STAT News on Saturday that there was "evidence to suggest this virus can still be contained" and that the world needed to "keep trying."

Bobcat06 said:

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Paywalled. Care to post the highlights?

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Some experts predicting a pandemic, others not. Sounds like stock market analysts just about every day. Some bulls, some bears.

This one stands out:

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It is "increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained," said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who now runs Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit devoted to fighting epidemics.

"It is therefore likely that it will spread, as flu and other organisms do, but we still don't know how far, wide or deadly it will be."

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Bobcat06 said:

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Paywalled. Care to post the highlights?

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Here is every quote from the story... this amounts to about 25% of the article base don word count itself so I think its still a reasonable copy/past amount and not me posting an entire story.

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"It's very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic," said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

"But will it be catastrophic? I don't know."

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Quote:

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It is "increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained," said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who now runs Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit devoted to fighting epidemics.

"It is therefore likely that it will spread, as flu and other organisms do, but we still don't know how far, wide or deadly it will be."

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In the early days of the 2009 flu pandemic, "they were talking about Armageddon in Mexico," Dr. Fauci said. (That virus first emerged in pig-farming areas in Mexico's Veracruz State.) "But it turned out to not be that severe."

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"This looks far more like H1N1's spread than SARS, and I am increasingly alarmed," said Dr. Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. "Even 1 percent mortality would mean 10,000 deaths in each million people."

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Dr. Michael Ryan, head of emergency responses for the World Health Organization, said in an interview with STAT News on Saturday that there was "evidence to suggest this virus can still be contained" and that the world needed to "keep trying."

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Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, a virus-hunter at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health who is in China advising its Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said that although the virus is clearly being transmitted through casual contact, labs are still behind in processing samples.

But Dr. Lipkin said he knew of one lab running 5,000 samples a day, which might produce some false-positive results, inflating the count. "You can't possibly do quality control at that rate," he said.

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Still, asymptomatic carriers "are not normally major drivers of epidemics," Dr. Fauci said. Most people get ill from someone they know to be sick a family member, a co-worker or a patient, for example.

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If anyone on the continent [Africa] has the virus now, "I'm not sure the diagnostic systems are in place to detect it," said Dr. Daniel Bausch, head of scientific programs for the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, who is consulting with the W.H.O. on the outbreak.

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At the moment, it seems unlikely that the virus will spread widely in countries with vigorous, alert public health systems, said Dr. William Schaffner, a preventive medicine specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

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"Every doctor in the U.S. has this top of mind," he said. "Any patient with fever or respiratory problems will get two questions. 'Have you been to China? Have you had contact with anyone who has?' If the answer is yes, they'll be put in isolation right away."

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"In God we trust," Dr. Schaffner said. "All others must provide data."

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It is wayyyyyy to premature to analyze any of this data factually. When you analyze the data you do have, combined with the worldwide rational assumption that the data is severely under reported and also misleading (deaths attributed to other chronic diseases, etc); one would be reckless to disregard this. I dont expect widespread contamination in the US, but I do think a disruption to our lives based upon a global economic downturn and supply chain struggles will occur at the least.

The hardest part about today is access to information in real time, what's fake and what's not? What's propaganda and who can gain from how this is portrayed should be asked with every view, but I will say I've seen some alarming and crazy videos the last week. And that's what has made it out and wasn't suppressed. The irregularities and weirdness to the studies on the virus and its origin also add to the fascinating appeal of this event.

CBR, what's your prepper stockpile look like? I imagine you consume a lot of conspiracy related media and live in isolation from most people.

Shanghai stock market is down 8.7% at market open...

Shanked Punt said:

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Shanghai stock market is down 8.7% at market open...

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How low do you think it goes?

VaultingChemist said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Shanghai stock market is down 8.7% at market open...

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How low do you think it goes?

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Low enough to get UK back into the european union?

US Futures up solid right now. Chinese are going to fly to international markets with their money for safety until China gets this under control

VaultingChemist said:

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Shanked Punt said:

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Shanghai stock market is down 8.7% at market open...

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How low do you think it goes?

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If it hits 10%, trading gets halted for the day. I'd say that's a real possibility

You sure about the 10%?

Isn't market cap $5 trillion for Shanghai? Dow Jones is $6.5 trillion?

FriendlyAg said:

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CBR, what's your prepper stockpile look like? I imagine you consume a lot of conspiracy related media and live in isolation from most people.

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Lol if you actually read my posts, you'll see that I just provide info. Not false alarm

I stay realistic. I don't fall for tinfoil crap

I also don't fall for blind msm ignorance.

I won't survive a zombie apocalypse most likely.

But I have been totally on my own, away from any help at all, many many times. I have not spent my life in suburbia with my head up my ass. I know history and I've lived it

So If I have to isolate for 3 -4 months, no problem. I was forced to for over A month just a few years ago.

Mr.Infectious said:

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You sure about the 10%?

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I can't find the scene from "My Cousin Vinny" but I read your post as Vincent Gambini when he was in court.

Prognightmare said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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You sure about the 10%?

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I can't find the scene from "My Cousin Vinny" but I read your post as Vincent Gambini when he was in court.

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You sure about that 5 minutes!?

Prognightmare said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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You sure about the 10%?

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I can't find the scene from "My Cousin Vinny" but I read your post as Vincent Gambini when he was in court.

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Do the laws of physics cease to exist on your stove?!?!?

Just ignore the criticism....Do what is right for you.

It took me days of hard work to get ready to take in people that need help. Family first, then close friends. It won't be easy but I'd rather be surrounded by people I trust in the country than being forced to beg and fight for scraps in a major metro area. I'm even warning neighbors and others. We are going to need strong communities to work through this. It's a really strange conversation w your pastor who barley knows you as you inform him of the potential dangers.....Get ready, it's coming.

I know people don't want to admit it but this is could get very ugly in the next few days/weeks.

17K confirmed cases now 2/2....Friday 1/31 was 9800. These exponential equation things, start slow the explode high really fast. Jan 20 was 139 confirmed cases.