From the study.

Quote:

---

The SEIRDC model estimates the fatality rate for 2019-nCoV is 6.50%. As a base of
comparison, the fatality rate for 2003 SARS was 7.66% and 3.61% for Beijing and
Guangzhou, respectively. We used the model to predict the confirmed case counts and death
counts in the first 80 days of the ongoing 2019-nCoV outbreak. We simulated these counts
for the 2003 SARS outbreaks in Beijing and Guangzhou as well, using the case counts as
input. The basic assumption is the absence of any control measures in all these scenarios. At
the end of this 80-day period, according to our simulations, the 2019-nCoV case counts
(35,454) is close to that of SARS in Guangzhou (37,663) and much higher than that of SARS
in Beijing (17,594). The 2019-nCoV death count (1,089) is much higher than that of SARS in
Guangzhou (725) and Beijing (690).

Our study also suggests that by reducing the average infectious period to <2.3 days,
the resulting will decease to a value less than 1, meaning the epidemic can be effectively
controlled.

In conclusion, considering transmissibility and fatality rate, 2019-nCoV poses a major
public health threat, at least at the level of 2003 SARS. Epidemiological studies are critically
called for to evaluate the effectiveness of stringent measures such as lockdown and help the
design of refinements and development of potential alternative strategies for the next phase of
the 2019-nCoV outbreak.

---

Incubation period of around 5-7 (but up to 14) days means that people infected last weekend are just beginning to show symptoms.

We don't have enough information to know how infectious it will be in the West.

Shanked Punt said:

---

Quote:

---

Two people in Siberia have tested positive for the new coronavirus, the first confirmed cases of the disease in Russia since the outbreak began in neighbouring China last month, Andrew Roth, the Guardian's Moscow correspondent reports.

Two Chinese citizens who had fallen ill in Russia tested positive for the disease, deputy prime minister Tatiana Golikova said on Friday. The cases were discovered in opposite ends of Siberia, in the Transbaikal and Tyumen regions. Officials said the two people had been isolated and there was "no chance" of the disease spreading in Russia.

---

Its popped up in Russia now. Though I would say the Russians should be well adept at putting people in isolation.

---

anyone against Putin will somehow have contracted it

JJMt said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

BowSowy said:

---

No denying the threat is real, but this thread definitely has its fair share of tin foil and doomsday. I think a few of y'all have gotten yourselves too deep into this

---

State your belief on why you believe that this virus is a real threat, but not enough to be alarmed.

---

I am concerned, but not alarmed. Here's why:

• We're not seeing pandemic-like person-to-person transmission outside of China, and particularly not in the western countries. We should have started seeing widespread transmission by now.
• The overwhelming majority of cases in the western countries are described as "mild" symptoms.
• Even in China, the growth of confirmed cases looks linear, not exponential. Yeah, I know, we can't trust data from China, but it's the only data we have. There is no reliable data showing exponential growth at this time.
• Even if we do start seeing person-to-person transmission in the west, differences in hygiene and personal space will likely dramatically reduce the R0 factor.

If those factors change for the worse, then my concern may grow to alarm. I am preparing for the possibility of that change, but my preparations will likely and hopefully prove unnecessary.

---

this article is interesting...

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/01/30/wuhan-coronavirus

JJMt said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

BowSowy said:

---

No denying the threat is real, but this thread definitely has its fair share of tin foil and doomsday. I think a few of y'all have gotten yourselves too deep into this

---

State your belief on why you believe that this virus is a real threat, but not enough to be alarmed.

---

I am concerned, but not alarmed. Here's why:

• We're not seeing pandemic-like person-to-person transmission outside of China, and particularly not in the western countries. We should have started seeing widespread transmission by now.
• The overwhelming majority of cases in the western countries are described as "mild" symptoms.
• Even in China, the growth of confirmed cases looks linear, not exponential. Yeah, I know, we can't trust data from China, but it's the only data we have. There is no reliable data showing exponential growth at this time.
• Even if we do start seeing person-to-person transmission in the west, differences in hygiene and personal space will likely dramatically reduce the R0 factor.

If those factors change for the worse, then my concern may grow to alarm. I am preparing for the possibility of that change, but my preparations will likely and hopefully prove unnecessary.

---

This is a good list and where I am. My wife is the executive in charge of risk for a major hospital system. She has access to way more data, real-time info, and briefings by her infectious disease experts on this than I do and she's not running for the hills. Shockingly, we're going to our son's basketball game tonight and a movie tomorrow night. Perhaps we're not serious enough people. I laughed when someone back up the thread that was SHOCKED people in College Station are partying and not taking this seriously.

Sid said:

---

JJMt said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

BowSowy said:

---

No denying the threat is real, but this thread definitely has its fair share of tin foil and doomsday. I think a few of y'all have gotten yourselves too deep into this

---

State your belief on why you believe that this virus is a real threat, but not enough to be alarmed.

---

I am concerned, but not alarmed. Here's why:

• We're not seeing pandemic-like person-to-person transmission outside of China, and particularly not in the western countries. We should have started seeing widespread transmission by now.
• The overwhelming majority of cases in the western countries are described as "mild" symptoms.
• Even in China, the growth of confirmed cases looks linear, not exponential. Yeah, I know, we can't trust data from China, but it's the only data we have. There is no reliable data showing exponential growth at this time.
• Even if we do start seeing person-to-person transmission in the west, differences in hygiene and personal space will likely dramatically reduce the R0 factor.

If those factors change for the worse, then my concern may grow to alarm. I am preparing for the possibility of that change, but my preparations will likely and hopefully prove unnecessary.

---

This is a good list and where I am. My wife is the executive in charge of risk for a major hospital system. She has access to way more data, real-time info, and briefings by her infectious disease experts on this than I do and she's not running for the hills. Shockingly, we're going to our son's basketball game tonight and a movie tomorrow night. Perhaps we're not serious enough people. I laughed when someone back up the thread that was SHOCKED people in College Station are partying and not taking this seriously.

---

The student who said that is a American of Chinese descent who lived in China for a time as a child and has family there. Given he was around for SARS and has first hand knowledge of China I think we was reacting based on his experiences, not our armchair analysis.

I just don't see how there is anyway China quarantined infected people fast enough.

Its like my Chinese buddy told me at Atami in College Station when I worked there during college.

Chinese, it's not where are they....it's where aren't they...

Sid said:

---

JJMt said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

BowSowy said:

---

No denying the threat is real, but this thread definitely has its fair share of tin foil and doomsday. I think a few of y'all have gotten yourselves too deep into this

---

State your belief on why you believe that this virus is a real threat, but not enough to be alarmed.

---

I am concerned, but not alarmed. Here's why:

• We're not seeing pandemic-like person-to-person transmission outside of China, and particularly not in the western countries. We should have started seeing widespread transmission by now.
• The overwhelming majority of cases in the western countries are described as "mild" symptoms.
• Even in China, the growth of confirmed cases looks linear, not exponential. Yeah, I know, we can't trust data from China, but it's the only data we have. There is no reliable data showing exponential growth at this time.
• Even if we do start seeing person-to-person transmission in the west, differences in hygiene and personal space will likely dramatically reduce the R0 factor.

If those factors change for the worse, then my concern may grow to alarm. I am preparing for the possibility of that change, but my preparations will likely and hopefully prove unnecessary.

---

This is a good list and where I am. My wife is the executive in charge of risk for a major hospital system. She has access to way more data, real-time info, and briefings by her infectious disease experts on this than I do and she's not running for the hills. Shockingly, we're going to our son's basketball game tonight and a movie tomorrow night. Perhaps we're not serious enough people. I laughed when someone back up the thread that was SHOCKED people in College Station are partying and not taking this seriously.

---

Haven't you seen Outbreak? Dustin Hoffman is gonna have to save your behind!

Lots of good info, especially on the Germany cases, which were mild. However the virus was spread asymptomatically. German case info starts at 5:40.

Is there any info in one place on total infections vs. recovery rate and timeline for the cases outside of China? I've seen sporadic things throughout this thread but no good summary.

As of now, all of that data is literally...MADE IN CHINA

Quote:

---

However the virus was spread asymptomatically.

---

Isn't that pretty common for the flu and viruses generally? It seems the fact that public doesn't have a naturally built up immunity and a functional vaccine has yet to be developed is a greater concern, no?

tysker said:

---

Quote:

---

However the virus was spread asymptomatically.

---

Isn't that pretty common for the flu and viruses generally? It seems the fact that public doesn't have a naturally built up immunity and a functional vaccine has yet to be developed is a greater concern, no?

---

Not sure.

Four German cases with 2 to 3 day incubation period and 2 to 4 day recovery period. After recovery a patient still had a high viral load of 10^8 viral particles per ml.

Lord....deep analysis of 4 patients in Germany you know you're hurting for pandemic news.

Waltonloads08 said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

The next three to four days are crucial IMO, the red flags I'm watching for 1) panic buying of groceries/supplies this weekend in the US 2) Trump announcing an incoming flight ban 3) Shanghai Stock Market not reopening on Feb 3rd, 4) the continued exponential growth of cases.

If none of those things happen, great. Life goes on as normal. If three or four things happen, I'm accelerating getting my affairs in order.


I'd rather be 10mins early than 1 second late.

---

thank God there isn't some major nationwide event this weekend where people buy inordinate amount of groceries and cooking supplies

---

What am i going to do with 20 blocks of Velveeta and 2 cases of Rotel?

claym711 said:

---

Lord....deep analysis of 4 patients in Germany you know you're hurting for pandemic news.

---

I trust the information from Germany much more than that coming from China. There is a lot of interesting information that came from that one incident.

Doesn't sound like a bad way to ride out a pandemic as long as you dont run out of tostitos!

tysker said:

---

Waltonloads08 said:

---

Mr.Infectious said:

---

The next three to four days are crucial IMO, the red flags I'm watching for 1) panic buying of groceries/supplies this weekend in the US 2) Trump announcing an incoming flight ban 3) Shanghai Stock Market not reopening on Feb 3rd, 4) the continued exponential growth of cases.

If none of those things happen, great. Life goes on as normal. If three or four things happen, I'm accelerating getting my affairs in order.


I'd rather be 10mins early than 1 second late.

---

thank God there isn't some major nationwide event this weekend where people buy inordinate amount of groceries and cooking supplies

---

What am i going to do with 20 blocks of Velveeta and 2 cases of Rotel?

---

Come to my house for the game. I'll provide chips.

scottimus said:

---

As of now, all of that data is literally...MADE IN CHINA

---

The question was about cases OUTSIDE of China

That's exactly what I'm talking about. Normal SB weekend, heavy shopping at grocery stores, happens every year. Potential this weekend for everyone to think, hmmm maybe I should pick up some extra items. Then just one dumbass Facebook from Aunt Erma and some Instagram influencer posting of an empty shelf or two and bam, we got the 2017 gas shortage all over again.

Never underestimate the stupidity of the below average American.

VaultingChemist said:

---

tysker said:

---

Quote:

---

However the virus was spread asymptomatically.

---

Isn't that pretty common for the flu and viruses generally? It seems the fact that public doesn't have a naturally built up immunity and a functional vaccine has yet to be developed is a greater concern, no?

---

Not sure.

Four German cases with 2 to 3 day incubation period and 2 to 4 day recovery period. After recovery a patient still had a high viral load of 10^8 viral particles per ml.

---

Can you explain this in plain language?

With what is know right now, this has very little chance of sweeping through the US. They got on it quick enough.

I hate to bring this up, but has anyone thought about the prospect of this virus taking hold in Mexico City? Can you imagine what that would mean for the US?

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

It's the wrong focus to have at this time. It distracts from the primary contagion threat by prioritizing other less risky considerations that are best dealt with at another time. I understand these temperamentally compulsive leftist can't help themselves, however. It is why they should never have sole administrative power: they are incompetent at weighing risks.

---

It's not a left or right issue, it's a human issue. The right is just as prone to this mentality in a crisis as the left.

I agree her duty should be to the country, but she's Chinese so her loyalty will always be to the Chinese people over any other ethnicity. Saying this is a leftist thing isn't correct, it's a human thing because humans are naturally tribal.

Why do you think it's so hard for Americans to see Europe falling down and being overrun and turned into a globalist dystopia? It's for the same reasons she is loyal to her people. That connection never goes away.

---

You underestimate the amount of people who go great strides to assimilate into American culture.
I am sure that your Harvard professor arrested for spying is certainly more tribal than my friends serving as a nukie. Or the one who is working as a doctor. Most Chinese assimilate within the first generation born in the US.

I fail to understand why this minister seems to be an idiot. My grandmother did the exact same thing when the SARS outbreak happened!

There is a very famous quote in Chinese history, "Between your family and liege, you may not always be able to have both". I have chosen where I stand, and it is not popular. The best way of resistance at times is ironically, silence.
You are better than Shanked, Shanked is a barbarian attempting to be seen as civilized. You on the other hand, I do not know whether to say you are misguided or a barbarian masquerading in a civilized man's shoes. Sadly politics is not always voted by what is logical, but by what is "right". People like you only encourage the Asian-American segment to vote democrat.

Indeed we reside in a bright and enlightened era.

Lets watch the Chicago Husband for clues about how bad or not this may get. He went to work for 2 weeks after his infected wife got back. If he infected only a person or two that's one thing if he infected dozens that another.

Failed attempt at justifying support for Dems.

erudite said:

---

Nuclear Scramjet said:

---

MouthBQ98 said:

---

It's the wrong focus to have at this time. It distracts from the primary contagion threat by prioritizing other less risky considerations that are best dealt with at another time. I understand these temperamentally compulsive leftist can't help themselves, however. It is why they should never have sole administrative power: they are incompetent at weighing risks.

---

It's not a left or right issue, it's a human issue. The right is just as prone to this mentality in a crisis as the left.

I agree her duty should be to the country, but she's Chinese so her loyalty will always be to the Chinese people over any other ethnicity. Saying this is a leftist thing isn't correct, it's a human thing because humans are naturally tribal.

Why do you think it's so hard for Americans to see Europe falling down and being overrun and turned into a globalist dystopia? It's for the same reasons she is loyal to her people. That connection never goes away.

---

You underestimate the amount of people who go great strides to assimilate into American culture.
I am sure that your Harvard professor arrested for spying is certainly more tribal than my friends serving as a nukie. Or the one who is working as a doctor. Most Chinese assimilate within the first generation born in the US.

I fail to understand why this minister seems to be an idiot. My grandmother did the exact same thing when the SARS outbreak happened!

There is a very famous quote in Chinese history, "Between your family and liege, you may not always be able to have both". I have chosen where I stand, and it is not popular. The best way of resistance at times is ironically, silence.
You are better than Shanked, Shanked is a barbarian attempting to be seen as civilized. You on the other hand, I do not know whether to say you are misguided or a barbarian masquerading in a civilized man's shoes. Sadly politics is not always voted by what is logical, but by what is "right". People like you only encourage the Asian-American segment to vote democrat.

Indeed we reside in a bright and enlightened era.

---

I think Nuclear Scramjet sees the world in some important way in terms of racial identity.

Zemira said:

---

Sid said:

---

JJMt said:

---

VaultingChemist said:

---

BowSowy said:

---

No denying the threat is real, but this thread definitely has its fair share of tin foil and doomsday. I think a few of y'all have gotten yourselves too deep into this

---

State your belief on why you believe that this virus is a real threat, but not enough to be alarmed.

---

I am concerned, but not alarmed. Here's why:

• We're not seeing pandemic-like person-to-person transmission outside of China, and particularly not in the western countries. We should have started seeing widespread transmission by now.
• The overwhelming majority of cases in the western countries are described as "mild" symptoms.
• Even in China, the growth of confirmed cases looks linear, not exponential. Yeah, I know, we can't trust data from China, but it's the only data we have. There is no reliable data showing exponential growth at this time.
• Even if we do start seeing person-to-person transmission in the west, differences in hygiene and personal space will likely dramatically reduce the R0 factor.

If those factors change for the worse, then my concern may grow to alarm. I am preparing for the possibility of that change, but my preparations will likely and hopefully prove unnecessary.

---

This is a good list and where I am. My wife is the executive in charge of risk for a major hospital system. She has access to way more data, real-time info, and briefings by her infectious disease experts on this than I do and she's not running for the hills. Shockingly, we're going to our son's basketball game tonight and a movie tomorrow night. Perhaps we're not serious enough people. I laughed when someone back up the thread that was SHOCKED people in College Station are partying and not taking this seriously.

---

The student who said that is a Chinese American who lived in China for a time and has family there. Given he was around for SARS and has first hand knowledge of China I think we was reacting based on his experiences, not our armchair analysis.

---

I was very young at the time and my memories of the event are extremely limited. My grandmother (retired) and several family members worked in the healthcare services during the outbreak and told me of the measures taken and their experiences on the front line of that outbreak (Especially the high mortality rate).

I do remember loosing several friends in the US because they had visited their family right before the outbreak and my parents would not let me play with them. My parents intuition was right when at least a few of their extended family were diagnosed.

A lot of these measures being taken right now, I checked with her. She does not remember ever ordering doors being forcibly barred with metal bars, nor the severity of the quarantine in Wuhan.

Edit: Chinese American implies naturalized Chinese people. I am American first, and everything else later.

Can we get the thread back on track? If you want to post about the hilarity of people sharing info about the virus or want to doomsday prep start other threads. Keep this one to sharing info about the virus.

I think we will end up seeing pockets of this develop in poor countries and maintained to reasonable levels in advanced countries.

GE said:

---

scottimus said:

---

As of now, all of that data is literally...MADE IN CHINA

---

The question was about cases OUTSIDE of China

---

DNE...latency period

"China Virus Cases May Be Undercounted Even With 3,000% Surge"




https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/china-virus-cases-surging-3-000-may-be-undercounting-infections


"Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College London, said his "best guess" was that 100,000 people could be infected around the world, according a Jan. 26 report in the Guardian."

That means even after the infected person begins to feel better, they may still be capable of transmitting the virus to others for a time.

That is his right to believe and associate as such. His past comments make me believe that he has had continued conflict with Chinese people to some degree.

He is to a degree (sadly) right. Many Chinese who are naturalized are in my opinion loyal to China. The American born ones, they are generally American but vote democrat. They are afraid of another repeat of the Chinese Exclusion act.

On the other hand, the democrats voting base do not like Chinese decent as well. The voting minority is stuck between voting for someone who they (for one reason or another) believe will bring back laws excluding Chinese, or a group that purportedly acts in the interests of minorities that doesn't include them.

They ought to have read the Art of War more.

Enough sidetracking.

Apparently, Most of northern China will resume work regularly, it is provinces surrounding Wuhan that will be closed until further notice. I wish I had picture proof but that was from a phone call with a relative last night.