willjohnathan said:

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So my bartender in Denver just told me that her sister got an email stating a student at co st tested positive for coronavirus. She showed me the email, but still not seeing it reported anywhere. Might be time to start bunkering down

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Nothing in the news.

OldAg89er said:

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moses1084ever said:

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Singapore to distribute flu masks to all households in the country:

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/wuhan-virus-every-household-in-singapore-to-get-4-masks-collection-starts-on-feb-1

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Instead of masks - they should hand out chapstick so they can bend over and kiss their butts goodbye.

Question to thread readers: got food, medicine, and water for your family if your area is quarantined?

Best go get some while the getting is good. Dont empty your saving, but do spend enough to have 30-60 days of canned food, rice, and beans on hand.

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Still waiting for a response to this. Are you there?

And please PM me the details about your farm

Anything to this??

Big Al 1992 said:

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Anything to this??

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It's possible that China has reached the IQR and a reached a region of linear growth (see exaplanation below).

If so, China will have about 4M (10K*4*100) cases of infections.

Quote:

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Math nerd thoughts:

I don't trust the numbers coming from China, but I suspect they represent the real numbers scaled down by several factors of 10. That is I believe that rather than having 7,800 case, the real number is around 780,000 cases (or maybe even 7,800,000 cases). While the raw numbers are fudged, I believe the rate of growth to be accurate.

The spread of an infection can be modeled by population saturation curve or the logistic function (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function), which is the integral of a Gaussian distribution. The first half of the curve is exponential in growth until the 50% inversion point, where it becomes an exponential decay as the population becomes saturated. As a result, you see exponential growth from 0-25%, linear growth from 25-75% (inter quartile range or IQR), and exponential decay from 75-100%..

If the drastic confinement measures are true (welding doors shut, temperature police, etc), I would max exposure population to be limited and the saturation point to be finite. With this in mind, China would hopefully be reaching the IQR where growth goes from exponential to linear.

When the rate of growth eventually slows to a linear pace, that will be approximately 1/4 of the total impact. At that point, reported number of cases * 4 *Chinese fudge factor (100 or 1000 or whatever) = total cases.

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From what I've seen, I doubt China is accurately recording infections because they don't have the ability. Plus, the inability to test and care for the infected is keeping a majority unrecorded as they stay at home

All that math analysis reminds me why I changed my major to accounting. I was considering math and realized I didn't want to think that hard all the time.

Plus if they aren't recording all of those who report to hospitals with valid symptoms for assessments of the coronavirus then I could easily see them passing them off as other reasons especially since the elderly and susceptible are most likely to succumb first

Not a positive sign when doctors are being infected.

VaultingChemist said:

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Not a positive sign when doctors are being infected.

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Certainly not at first glance but perhaps we can thank paranoia and a rapid spread of information as to being a reason for direct contact with doctors as being among the beginning cases beyond the known contagion zone?

fullback44 said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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Bought a months supply of groceries, medicine and extra masks tonight.

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Same here, already Bought 4-5 months of dry good and canned vegetables and plenty of seeds for a garden... it may be time to head out to the ranch and get away from the crowds real soon... was thinking about electricity ideas if power went out but I don't see power going out

always wanted to see how long I could live off the deer and hogs... may need to take out one of those 450 lbs calves we have.. bbq everyday!

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How are you going to handle the influx of city people requesting to come stay with you if SHTF?

I've already had the conversation w one friend. Told her to find other accommodations if/when things go south. My family coming from the city get first dibs. It wasn't a good feeling.

Truth be told, I've got a list in my head of those that I will take their call and those that I won't. It makes me ill, but reality is finite/limited resources means tough decisions.

I had a conversation w another friend (married mid 30s) over a couple beers. When this virus thing was just getting rolling, I asked him what he do it a worst case. He admitted that w/o Uber eats he and his wife were screwed. Smart guy but zero common sense. Needless to say he's not on my invite list.

Bobcat06 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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Anything to this??

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It's possible that China has reached the IQR and a reached a region of linear growth (see exaplanation below).

If so, China will have about 4M (10K*4*100) cases of infections.

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Quote:

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Trump Administration Popped 2017 Bitcoin Bubble, Ex-CFTC Chair Says

Christopher Giancarlo, who left the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at the end of his five-year term as chairman in April, told CoinDesk in an interview:

"One of the untold stories of the past few years is that the CFTC, the Treasury, the SEC and the [National Economic Council] director at the time, Gary Cohn, believed that the launch of bitcoin futures would have the impact of popping the bitcoin bubble. And it worked."


In a speech at the Pantera Summit in San Francisco on Monday, Giancarlo elaborated further, saying bitcoin's dramatic price run-up in December 2017 was the first major bubble following the 2008 financial crisis. That's why the Trump administration acted in concert to address it in a pro-markets manner, he said.

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[url] https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says[/url]



I don't trust our government. And sure as hell don't trust the Chinese to be honest.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Bobcat06 said:

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Big Al 1992 said:

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Anything to this??

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It's possible that China has reached the IQR and a reached a region of linear growth (see exaplanation below).

If so, China will have about 4M (10K*4*100) cases of infections.

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Quote:

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Trump Administration Popped 2017 Bitcoin Bubble, Ex-CFTC Chair Says

Christopher Giancarlo, who left the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) at the end of his five-year term as chairman in April, told CoinDesk in an interview:

"One of the untold stories of the past few years is that the CFTC, the Treasury, the SEC and the [National Economic Council] director at the time, Gary Cohn, believed that the launch of bitcoin futures would have the impact of popping the bitcoin bubble. And it worked."


In a speech at the Pantera Summit in San Francisco on Monday, Giancarlo elaborated further, saying bitcoin's dramatic price run-up in December 2017 was the first major bubble following the 2008 financial crisis. That's why the Trump administration acted in concert to address it in a pro-markets manner, he said.

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[url] https://www.coindesk.com/trump-administration-popped-2017-bitcoin-bubble-ex-cftc-chair-says[/url]



I don't trust our government. And sure as hell don't trust the Chinese to be honest.

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Username checks out

Someone at my wife's work apparently was in Wuhan 2wks - 3wks ago for a wedding... just found out and still shows up to the office without a care in the world .... yay...

Singapore not letting in Chinese:

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3048441/singapore-closes-borders-all-chinese-travellers-stem?utm_content=article&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1580464957

Some good news. Some not so good.

BowSowy said:

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No denying the threat is real, but this thread definitely has its fair share of tin foil and doomsday. I think a few of y'all have gotten yourselves too deep into this

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State your belief on why you believe that this virus is a real threat, but not enough to be alarmed.

I suggest you get to at least a page 18 response and get some beans and rice...lol

JJMt said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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BowSowy said:

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No denying the threat is real, but this thread definitely has its fair share of tin foil and doomsday. I think a few of y'all have gotten yourselves too deep into this

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State your belief on why you believe that this virus is a real threat, but not enough to be alarmed.

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I am concerned, but not alarmed. Here's why:

• We're not seeing pandemic-like person-to-person transmission outside of China, and particularly not in the western countries. We should have started seeing widespread transmission by now.
• The overwhelming majority of cases in the western countries are described as "mild" symptoms.
• Even in China, the growth of confirmed cases looks linear, not exponential. Yeah, I know, we can't trust data from China, but it's the only data we have. There is no reliable data showing exponential growth at this time.
• Even if we do start seeing person-to-person transmission in the west, differences in hygiene and personal space will likely dramatically reduce the R0 factor.

If those factors change for the worse, then my concern may grow to alarm. I am preparing for the possibility of that change, but my preparations will likely and hopefully prove unnecessary.

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Pretty much where I'm at. Plus, all of this is out of our control.

It's a good idea to have some extra food and water in case things get crazy, but I'm sure as hell not going to drive myself crazy worrying about this being the end of days. If it ends up that bad when we deal with it when that day comes.

Having the 2nd most populous and 2nd largest economy on lock down should raise alarm bells in your head. If not, you are living up to your handle. You won't be able to survive this on Fight Milk.


I said it earlier In this thread, I'm not so worried about the virus itself. I'm more concerned w 1) people panicking (domestically and internationally) and 2) the economic impacts short and long term.


The governments around the world have kept a good handle on FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) by slow rolling "official" Chinese confirmed numbers by we all know they wouldn't have done all the drastic measures for a handful of illness/deaths. Something doesn't add up there. No government would commit economic suicide for 300 deaths.


The next three to four days are crucial IMO, the red flags I'm watching for 1) panic buying of groceries/supplies this weekend in the US 2) Trump announcing an incoming flight ban 3) Shanghai Stock Market not reopening on Feb 3rd, 4) the continued exponential growth of cases.

If none of those things happen, great. Life goes on as normal. If three or four things happen, I'm accelerating getting my affairs in order.


I'd rather be 10mins early than 1 second late.

Charlie Kelley said:

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The Venn diagram between the q thread and this one is two circles on top of each other.

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Yep, but I think these people do need a break from hunting the Illuminati every once in awhile. Just for the change of pace.

This seems smart.

Oh

Quote:

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First two cases of coronavirus confirmed in Russia, both Chinese citizens

Russia has registered its first patients diagnosed with the new Chinese coronavirus, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Golikova has confirmed. The alarming news comes just a day after Moscow closed its Far Eastern border with China.
Golikova told reporters that the two patients are Chinese citizens, one in the eastern Zabaikalsky Region, and the other in Tyumen Region in western Siberia which are separated by a distance of about 4,000km.

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Nuclear Scramjet said:

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This seems smart.

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from the article:

Quote:

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Flying with China Southern Airlines Co. to John F. Kennedy International on May 20 costs only $193, according to travel booking site kayak.com. The trip includes 6 hours and 35 minutes in Wuhan.

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I mean if this is still going strong through mid-May we'll probably have a larger worldwide issues on our hand so why not take a shot...

This chart is the clearest explanation of the German cases I've seen so far. Supposedly two generations of asymptomatic spread

Quote:

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We're not seeing pandemic-like person-to-person transmission outside of China, and particularly not in the western countries. We should have started seeing widespread transmission by now.

The overwhelming majority of cases in the western countries are described as "mild" symptoms.

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-The virus can mutate into a less virulent strain. Doesn't always have to get more deadly.

-infected people outside of China may just think they have a cold, no need to go to a doctor unless symptoms get much worse.

Quote:

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Two people in Siberia have tested positive for the new coronavirus, the first confirmed cases of the disease in Russia since the outbreak began in neighbouring China last month, Andrew Roth, the Guardian's Moscow correspondent reports.

Two Chinese citizens who had fallen ill in Russia tested positive for the disease, deputy prime minister Tatiana Golikova said on Friday. The cases were discovered in opposite ends of Siberia, in the Transbaikal and Tyumen regions. Officials said the two people had been isolated and there was "no chance" of the disease spreading in Russia.

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Its popped up in Russia now. Though I would say the Russians should be well adept at putting people in isolation.