k2aggie07 said:

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The Hopkins tracker now showing 4474

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Exponential rate around 1.6 right now. That's brutal.

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Yesterday the 95% CI was 2.4 to 2.6.

Here is my Opinion:

Your average American person doesn't need to fear for their life, but a disruption of day to day life. Small children and the elderly need to be cautious regarding health as they are more susceptible.

What I'm fearing is a sever disruption of world trade. Consumer goods is one thing, but if the food supply/water supply is affected it will be very inconvenient to say the least.

I'm also of the opinion that I could be making this into more than it is, but I think it's worth considering.

KorbinDallas said:

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Here is my Opinion:

Your average American person doesn't need to fear for their life, but a disruption of day to day life. Small children and the elderly need to be cautious regarding health as they are more susceptible.

What I'm fearing is a sever disruption of world trade. Consumer goods is one thing, but if the food supply/water supply is affected it will be very inconvenient to say the least.

I'm also of the opinion that I could be making this into more than it is, but I think it's worth considering.

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I hope you are right. I am not that optimistic.

Look out for new cases around major airports. They will be the canaries in the coal mine.

The anecdotal evidence with hospital beds and the time line of roughly 15 days suggests an r0 between 2 and 3. And they are lying through their teeth on case counts.

Why do people think the "water supply" is going to be interrupted in most of this country?

Just curious if most folks know how that works?

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Africa is on the board. South America and Antarctica left to go.

KorbinDallas said:

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Here is my Opinion:

Your average American person doesn't need to fear for their life, but a disruption of day to day life. Small children and the elderly need to be cautious regarding health as they are more susceptible.

What I'm fearing is a sever disruption of world trade. Consumer goods is one thing, but if the food supply/water supply is affected it will be very inconvenient to say the least.

I'm also of the opinion that I could be making this into more than it is, but I think it's worth considering.

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Water will be fine

OnlyForNow said:

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Why do people think the "water supply" is going to be interrupted in most of this country?

Just curious if most folks know how that works?

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The general reasoning behind an impact to the water supply is if the employees working the treatment facilities can no longer work or are incapacitated, and the plant can no longer produce clean water at the needed capacity or at all

Mr.Infectious said:

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Africa is on the board. South America and Antarctica left to go.

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African Ebola says "hold my strain".

I don't have 100% first hand knowledge of the day to day, but a general knowledge of how water is supplied to neighborhoods and smaller municipalities in Texas, city of Dallas/Houston, I'm guessing it's the same but on a larger scale.

It's basically automated, and takes extremely minimal human interaction.l; plus, those guys that work there aren't gonna get paid if they ain't at work, so they probably already go to work sick. It's not like they come into contact with the water.

willjohnathan said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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The Chinese are vastly under reporting the number of cases. Wuhan has 49,000 hospital beds. Yet they are already out of room to treat new cases. That doesn't make any sense.

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Just to play devils advocate... That doesn't mean that there aren't people with other ailments in the city. What was their average number of open beds prior to the outbreak?

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That would require that 99.6% of the beds were occupied before this epidemic started.

Muy said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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Africa is on the board. South America and Antarctica left to go.

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African Ebola says "hold my strain".

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The difference is Ebola has such a high mortality rate that it burns itself out quickly when it flares up. In a sense it kills too fast. This appears to be easily spread before you know you are sick and take a while to make you so sick that you get quarantined. That's a bad combination.

foleyt said:

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keep them in Alaska. They hate Texas.

The fact that Wuhan has x number of beds does not mean that x number of beds are available and empty at the start of an outbreak.

Edit: i see this is already brought up

OnlyForNow said:

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Why do people think the "water supply" is going to be interrupted in most of this country?

Just curious if most folks know how that works?

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I'm not in the water industry, but. Sick people don't come to work. I know that if operators family's get sick they aren't coming into work. Of if they are scared they will catch a potentially deadly flu they will stay at home. When people don't come to work equipment breaks down, and it doesn't get fixed. Maintenance contractors have family too. If parts stop coming out of China things don't get fixed either. Lots of steel comes from China and India. If the Chinese quarantines don't work ships are next. Water treatment facilities probably have maybe a few weeks of treatment chemicals on hand. If those shipments stop water quality becomes questionable. There are lots of ways it could be effected.

I'll buy the parts shortage more so than folks staying home.

VaultingChemist said:

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willjohnathan said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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The Chinese are vastly under reporting the number of cases. Wuhan has 49,000 hospital beds. Yet they are already out of room to treat new cases. That doesn't make any sense.

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Just to play devils advocate... That doesn't mean that there aren't people with other ailments in the city. What was their average number of open beds prior to the outbreak?

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That would require that 99.6% of the beds were occupied before this epidemic started.

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what? The virus started a month ago. .4% of 49k is 196. Wuhan has a lot more sick than that.

I don't understand how this could of happened in China....libs have assured me that handing over all personal freedoms to the government solves all problems...The Chinese must not be doing communism right.

At the time that Wuhan's hospitals were being overrun, they were reporting only 200 severe cases.

javajaws said:

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As a communist country, China is better able to stop a pandemic than any democracy where people have rights.

Unfortunately as a highly populated still developing country they are more likely to START a pandemic as well.

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You're right in that being able to oppress people's rights temporarily can come in handy at a time like this.

But factor in the disinformation and national pride (a la Chernobyl), and suddenly it's not an advantage anymore.

mpl35 said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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willjohnathan said:

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VaultingChemist said:

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The Chinese are vastly under reporting the number of cases. Wuhan has 49,000 hospital beds. Yet they are already out of room to treat new cases. That doesn't make any sense.

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Just to play devils advocate... That doesn't mean that there aren't people with other ailments in the city. What was their average number of open beds prior to the outbreak?

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That would require that 99.6% of the beds were occupied before this epidemic started.

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what? The virus started a month ago. .4% of 49k is 196. Wuhan has a lot more sick than that.

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First cases of the virus were in early December (the 3rd I believe).

VaultingChemist said:

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At the time that Wuhan's hospitals were being overrun, they were reporting only 200 severe cases.

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49000 beds seems like a lot but it's only .44% of the population. I definitely agree that they are under reporting but hospitals are probably not mostly empty in a communist healthcare system.

Chernobyl could've been 1,000,000X worse if it wasn't the communist that it happened to.

VaultingChemist said:

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The Chinese are vastly under reporting the number of cases. Wuhan has 49,000 hospital beds. Yet they are already out of room to treat new cases. That doesn't make any sense.

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So, you contend they had nobody in those beds when this all started?

Without context on their availability before the disease, you have no idea the impact on filling hospital beds.

Some context... The State of Texas 57,895 staffed beds. Texas has a population of 28.7M people.

City of Wuhan has 11.1M people. Hubei province has 58M people.

I don't know if that is a good ration, or not.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51224504

I spoke with a Chinese national I work with today and he definitely agreed that the numbers are being underreported to keep the population from freaking out and rioting and making containment more difficult.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Africa is on the board. South America and Antarctica left to go.

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Oh it's no doubt in SA.

Tx-Ag2010 said:

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I spoke with a Chinese national I work with today and he definitely agreed that the numbers are being underreported to keep the population from freaking out and rioting and making containment more difficult.

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Makes sense. If the numbers are much higher, you would want to keep panic down by under-reporting, but they could also be the accurate number. The tell might be Xi's travel plans. I would need to go on some foreign relations trip if I were him and the numbers are as bad as some are speculating.

Mr.Infectious said:

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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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Bump....Virus tracking map.

"The 2019-nCoV Statistics Are Misleading: Why Everyone Already Knows And Acts Like This"

https://towardsdatascience.com/why-everyone-knows-and-acts-like-the-2019-ncov-statistics-are-misleading-5919b3c33476

Looks like it is creeping toward India, which might be another place that struggles to keep it under wraps.

Just tuning in to this thread.

It's clear the virus is spreading and even to here in the USA.

What actions are being made (other than containment and isolating carriers) to find a antivirus.
How would that aspect of this virus be fought? What do you expect our health authorities to be currently doing in reaction to what is happening?