Aggiebrewer said:

---

How would him resigning help control the outbreak?

---

If Steve Adler said he would resign if people promise to self-isolate if they start showing symptoms, I would take him up on it in a heartbeat.

Add Germany to the list.

foleyt said:

---

---

It's a sexist virus!,,,,

Big yike

Is this where exponential growth phase starts to appear, in China at least? It's taking the CDC 2-3 days to come up with test results, so how far behind is the Chinese Gov?

All the other cities that are freshly quarantined as of now have had walking carriers for days.

B-1 83 said:

---

foleyt said:

---

---

It's a sexist virus!,,,,

---

Could be that China kills all their girl babies and there is a higher percentage of males in their population.

Curious about the screening process for these folks.

Exponential growth is a mofo.

4285 confirmed cases? I don't see that anywhere else.

If so that could be a real accelerating rate.. or it could be accelerating rate of reporting.

Either way that's almost doubling in one day.

mathguy86 said:

---

Exponential growth is a mofo.

---

Username checks out.

Care to elaborate?

CDC Document -

Quote:

---

Get Your Household Ready for Pandemic Flu

https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions/pdf/gr-pan-flu-ind-house.pdf

---

Common sense information.....

Just came out. The update added there was only hubei province - national update isn't out

k2aggie07 said:

---

4285 confirmed cases? I don't see that anywhere else.

If so that could be a real accelerating rate.. or it could be accelerating rate of reporting.

Either way that's almost doubling in one day.

---

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Zemira said:

---

mathguy86 said:

---

Exponential growth is a mofo.

---

Username checks out.

Care to elaborate?

---

Exponential growth starts slow and looks innocuous but once it kicks in it's merciless.

If each infected person infects 2 more you get incredible growth.

1,2,4,8,16,32,64,128,256,512,1024. In 10 steps it goes from 1 to 1024.

The first 5 steps are only at 32. That sounds low. But you go From 32 to 1024 in the next 5. After 10 interactions 1 person generates 1024 infected people. The next 5 are 2048, 4096, 8192, 16384 and 32768. 1 person creates 32768 infected people in a double in 15 iterations. At day 20 it's more than a million.

Thanks!

And this is why people are being cautious and semi-freaking out. So the "it's not a big deal" group look at the math!! Math doesn't lie, at least as long as the statistics aren't massaged.

Those numbers represent new cases at each step, so you would have to add it up along the way.

foleyt said:

---

Just came out. The update added there was only hubei province - national update isn't out

---

Hubei: 2,714 cases,100 deaths, 563 serious, 127 critical

That is really dismal. They are admitting that over 29% of cases are serious or worse. These figures will only increase exponentially day by day.

Meanwhile, numerous cities are quarantined. Food supplies will become depleted within a couple of weeks, unless the Chinese can figure out an efficient way of distributing food without causing more infections.

The government will be devoting more and more of their GDP into fighting this epidemic, with little regard to the consequences of it spreading outside their borders.

They are truly fighting for the survival of their country and its leadership. It is time we do the same. There needs to be an immediate worldwide effort to help the Chinese fight this before it spirals out of control, if it is still possible.

Kind of like the penny a day doubled everyday for a month.

Air drops of supplies would work.

The Hopkins tracker now showing 4474

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Exponential rate around 1.6 right now. That's brutal.

foleyt said:

---

---

This says to me that China is just throwing **** against wall in the hopes that it will work. They really have no idea what they are doing or how to stop the spread. It also says that China views it as a pandemic already.

As a communist country, China is better able to stop a pandemic than any democracy where people have rights.

Unfortunately as a highly populated still developing country they are more likely to START a pandemic as well.

Exponential rate meaning the R0?

VaultingChemist said:

---

foleyt said:

---

Just came out. The update added there was only hubei province - national update isn't out

---

Hubei: 2,714 cases,100 deaths, 563 serious, 127 critical

That is really dismal. They are admitting that over 29% of cases are serious or worse. These figures will only increase exponentially day by day.

Meanwhile, numerous cities are quarantined. Food supplies will become depleted within a couple of weeks, unless the Chinese can figure out an efficient way of distributing food without causing more infections.

The government will be devoting more and more of their GDP into fighting this epidemic, with little regard to the consequences of it spreading outside their borders.

They are truly fighting for the survival of their country and its leadership. It is time we do the same. There needs to be an immediate worldwide effort to help the Chinese fight this before it spirals out of control, if it is still possible.

---

With a disease that spreads asymptotically, it's virtually impossible to stop. The fact that 5 million fled Wuhan the instant the quarantine was announced says that the people don't really listen to their government at all. It also means that containment is impossible.

With the virus being in so many countries now, I think it's pretty obvious we're going to have our own problems very shortly and won't be able to help.

k2aggie07 said:

---

The Hopkins tracker now showing 4474

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Exponential rate around 1.6 right now. That's brutal.

---

With an even 100 deaths shown for Hubei. What a nice, round, certainly manufactured number.

No, just the number of cases each day divided by previous day.

Yesterday 2700, today 4400, etc.

Means tomorrow 7200, Wednesday 11,800, Thursday we near 20k.

And by March everyone in the world.

k2aggie07 said:

---

No, just the number of cases each day divided by previous day.

Yesterday 2700, today 4400, etc.

Means tomorrow 7200, Wednesday 11,800, Thursday we near 20k.

And by March everyone in the world.

---

Give it to me straight. We gonna die???

Bobcat-Ag said:

---

Those numbers represent new cases at each step, so you would have to add it up along the way.

---

Oh, I know. I was just showing the simple effect of exponential growth rather than cumulative growth.

Cumulative doubling is really simple too. It's the next double less 1. At stage 10 the growth is 1024 and the cumulative growth is 2056-1. So the cumulative growth is also exponential.

Ah ok gotcha. Was thinking you meant R0 and was wondering where you saw that as it's most assuredly higher