Zemira said:

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88planoAg said:

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I am following this story with interest, although I have changed nothing so far in my personal life. I don't feel at risk. Yet.

However my 80 year old parents are going on a trip to India beginning Feb 28th. They are in reasonably good health and are very seasoned travelers.

I'm not sure whether to be concerned about their travel plans at this point.

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Do they have travel insurance? A lot will or will not happen in a month. No one can predict the future.

Myself I am a planner. I am normally risk adverse unless I can mitigate the risk. I do that by planning and learning everything I can to avoid all the bad scenarios. I have a crappy immune system and if I was traveling like your older parents were in a month I wouldn't change anything yet in my plans. I would wait and see. I might be an overreaction, it might not be. No one knows anything yet.

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Yes, they have started buying the travel insurance that has everything including shipping them home if necessary. They are under-reactors and were on one of the first international flights after 9/11, traveling to Bhutan, but also are planners. I haven't talked to them about this yet, but I know their reaction will be 'meh'.

bmks270 said:

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When has the US ever evacuated US diplomats and citizens out of a foreign city that is on lockdown over a virus? Must be pretty bad in Wuhan.

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It may be more of a logistics issue, ie getting basic products and services to function, since it sounds like commerce has been seriously disrupted in the city.

For those watching at home this is what a Socialist, Communist, Fascist government does. They dictate and you follow or else.

Yep. I said this in another thread, but this is one of the very few instances where a communist country being at the helm of this is a good thing.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Yep. I said this in another thread, but this is one of the very few instances where a communist country being at the helm of this is a good thing.

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I don't know if it's a good thing combined with what are probably lies and propaganda coming out of the government. I realize they don't want to incite fear and panic but their draconian reaction is likely not helping.

IrishTxAggie said:

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Two neighboring school districts to us in Texas shut down for a week because of flu risks.

Just throwing that out there.

My reference is more towards the control of the population movement and quarantine. The disinformation doesn't help matters, but that's nothing new regardless of government.

I'm aware. Just sharing the information.

Zemira said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Yep. I said this in another thread, but this is one of the very few instances where a communist country being at the helm of this is a good thing.

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I don't know if it's a good thing combined with what are probably lies and propaganda coming out of the government. I realize they don't want to incite fear and panic but their draconian reaction is likely not helping.

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Well it certainly is in keeping schools closed. Those are absolute disease transmission mills in any epidemic; even the more milder ones, because of the less parented or responsible students come anyway and infect the others.

titan said:

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Zemira said:

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IrishTxAggie said:

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Yep. I said this in another thread, but this is one of the very few instances where a communist country being at the helm of this is a good thing.

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I don't know if it's a good thing combined with what are probably lies and propaganda coming out of the government. I realize they don't want to incite fear and panic but their draconian reaction is likely not helping.

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Well it certainly is in keeping schools closed. Those are absolute disease transmission mills in any epidemic; even the more milder ones, because of the less parented or responsible students come anyway and infect the others.

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I agree with you on closing the schools, but shutting down roads so supplies cannot get in or out of cities?

They're still allowing supplies in. They're controlling the people's movements outside of the city. Not complete isolating the cities and shutting them off.

foleyt said:

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Nature providing a low cost solution for the homeless problem....

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

Estimates of R0 between 3 and 5.

lunchbox said:

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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

Estimates of R0 between 3 and 5.

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I guess I missed something in the previous 30 pages because I don't know what this means.

So I thought a ATM student had the Corona Virus. I am not seeing that shown anywhere.

Wouldn't the R0 value be heavily affected by the fact that the areas of China impacted so far are extremely population dense? My understanding is that it's not a constant for a given pathogen regardless of environmental/social variables.

Rocky Rider said:

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lunchbox said:

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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

Estimates of R0 between 3 and 5.

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I guess I missed something in the previous 30 pages because I don't know what this means.

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On average 1 infected person will infect between 3-5 others. You have to be below 1 for a disease to die out.

FCBlitz said:

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So I thought a ATM student had the Corona Virus. I am not seeing that shown anywhere.

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I don't think that was ever confirmed but I could be mistaken. I thought the student was under observation.

FCBlitz said:

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So I thought a ATM student had the Corona Virus. I am not seeing that shown anywhere.

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No results yet...which is a bit troubling. Other possible cases that were reported AFTER the A&M case have come back as negative.

Quote:

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So I thought a ATM student had the Corona Virus. I am not seeing that shown anywhere.

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Suspected. Results from CDC have not yet been released, but should be by tomorrow.

https://texags.com/forums/35/topics/3090843

FCBlitz said:

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So I thought a ATM student had the Corona Virus. I am not seeing that shown anywhere.

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That's because the media was being ****ty when pushing that headline. It specifically stated that there was a confirmed case of a "possible" infection.

They trotted that headline out like there was a confirmed infected person, when they just found someone that was at risk, but wasn't confirmed as having the virus. (Yet)

Fenrir said:

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Wouldn't the R0 value be heavily affected by the fact that the areas of China impacted so far are extremely population dense? My understanding is that it's not a constant for a given pathogen regardless of environmental/social variables.

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Yes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

R0 is a modeling value dependent on environmental and cultural conditions, not a hard calculated scientific number. Chinese cultural practices like wet markets, customary medicine and public spitting likely enhance the infectivity. However, the official numbers are so unreliable that we dont have a decent estimate. Anything in the 3 range is scary.

Im curios if the R0 value lowers much in Western societies where hygiene is better. However, if the rumor of being asymptomatically contagious for a week are correct, it may not drop by much.

I haven't yet found a link to the CDC update
Edit: CDC update was a telebriefing for reporters so no link. Will post tweets of anything else notable

They haven't posted anything off the call yet

lunchbox said:

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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

Estimates of R0 between 3 and 5.

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if that is true, and reports of 2 week asymptomatic infectious period are also true, then i'd say it pretty much means we have a global pandemic already and every government is way behind the curve.

i understand R-0 to mean anyone with it will likely give it to 3-5 people. that is higher than spanish flue pandemic and higher than SARS.

yes, that number fluctuates.

total problem then falls back to how many peolpe had/have it before quarantined, and how many people did they interact wth and pass it to.

and of course how lethal it really is.

Sine poena nulla lex.