AG 2000' said:

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Mr.Infectious said:

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azulAg said:

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It's pretty rational to think the worst in order to prepare, Id rather be prepared and not need it than vice versa

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You can greatly reduce your chances of getting sick with simple behavior changes....get sleep, taking vitamins to boost your immune system, practicing good sanitation.


In the 15% chance you do get this virus, you're way more likely to live than die. You'll feel like **** for a couple of days maybe a week and wish your were dead, but you'll live. Just be prepared to ride it out at home.

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15% chance? Where's that number coming from Infectius.

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Lancet study.

claym711 said:

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Just a bit worse than the common cold.

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Great insight. Chime in some more, we are all listening.

I was scheduled to travel to Quindao and Jinan later this week but our China office cancelled the meetings due to Coronavirus. Our colleagues in China are taking this very seriously.

claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

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Thats an 8% chnce of dying, a miserable death, thats why.

This sure seems normal for 800 infections and a few deaths....

FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

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I'll bite further, if this is simply an addition to common viruses or illnesses that cause death then why shouldn't people be alarmed? I'm healthy and young now but at the rate of sars, corona, etc then I'll be a pretty terrified old

cbr said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

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Thats an 8% chnce of dying, a miserable death, thats why.

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Have you been drinking? There are a lot of grammatical errors in your last few posts.

I will bite again. What percentage are you associating with "most likely won't die"? You are making an assumption based off his post, but I am pretty sure no one really knows.

FriendlyAg said:

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cbr said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

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Thats an 8% chnce of dying, a miserable death, thats why.

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Have you been drinking? There are a lot of grammatical errors in your last few posts.

I will bite again. What percentage are you associating with "most likely won't die"? You are making an assumption based off his post, but I am pretty sure no one really knows.

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I think he meant most likely WILL die

FriendlyAg said:

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cbr said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

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Thats an 8% chnce of dying, a miserable death, thats why.

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Have you been drinking? There are a lot of grammatical errors in your last few posts.

I will bite again. What percentage are you associating with "most likely won't die"? You are making an assumption based off his post, but I am pretty sure no one really knows.

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Im on mobile, no autocorrect and seems like the wrong letter gets hit. Correct no one knows stats yet - i was just joking off 15%/most likely post

TAMUallen said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

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I'll bite further, if this is simply an addition to common viruses or illnesses that cause death then why shouldn't people be alarmed? I'm healthy and young now but at the rate of sars, corona, etc then I'll be a pretty terrified old

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Why? Because you are mortal and will die of something eventually. Why be alarmed that you may die in the future?

Premium said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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cbr said:

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FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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If there's a 15% chance you get this virus and most likely won't die, you should be highly alarmed.

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I will bite. Why?

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Thats an 8% chnce of dying, a miserable death, thats why.

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Have you been drinking? There are a lot of grammatical errors in your last few posts.

I will bite again. What percentage are you associating with "most likely won't die"? You are making an assumption based off his post, but I am pretty sure no one really knows.

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I think he meant most likely WILL die

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Why make that assumption?

He is obviously using 49% of 15%.

15% of 7.8B with a 2% death rate is the worst pandemic ever.

claym711 said:

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15% of 7.8B with a 2% death rate is the worst pandemic ever.

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Yep, and china is certainly acting as if that is the case.

Mr.Infectious said:

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azulAg said:

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It's pretty rational to think the worst in order to prepare, Id rather be prepared and not need it than vice versa

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You can greatly reduce your chances of getting sick with simple behavior changes....get sleep, taking vitamins to boost your immune system, practicing good sanitation.


In the 15% chance you do get this virus, you're way more likely to live than die. You'll feel like **** for a couple of days maybe a week and wish your were dead, but you'll live. Just be prepared to ride it out at home.

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Clay was responding to this.. 15% chance you get the virus and you are way more likely to live than die. Then clay changed it to 15% you get the virus and more likely to live than die. Then the next guy assumed that "likely" meant 50/50.

I feel as if the last two pages validate my original point that people are looking for this to be a big deal. It's really weird.

You guys remember the great gas shortage in DFW like a year ago?

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/texas/2017/09/01/how-panicked-drivers-are-making-north-texas-gas-shortages-worse/

There wasn't really an issue at all, but this is the bad side of the internet. Someone says something, then it blows up, people panic and extrapolate it because they think its the end of times or something. Then boom there is an actual problem. It's very emotionally driven.

Obvious caveat here, is of course you want to take precautions and be healthy/prepared. I am not advocating against that. I guess I just don't understand the jump to conclusions and confirmation bias of negative outcomes without real facts.

Posting hysterical videos of people's in hospitals in third world countries doesn't really lend it self to being hard data.

Hospital making progress...

This board promised me Ebola was gonna spread in the US and kill lots of us a few years back.

This board is known for overreacting to potential pandemics.

Personally I don't think this will have any significant impact on the US. China? Huge.

I'm just trying to post relevant facts here without the sensationalist videos and other bs

Woody2006 said:

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This board promised me Ebola was gonna spread in the US and kill lots of us a few years back.

This board is known for overreacting to potential pandemics.

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That's because 98% of the people commenting online about this have no clue what they're talking about. Anybody who was afraid a massive international pandemic of ebola did so out of ignorance. Ebola simply isn't capable of causing pandemics on the level of respiratory viruses.

Respiratory viruses spread via airborne droplets are however much more terrifying in their potential. Theoretically, you could inoculate an entire city with a novel virus before the first person actually gets sick.

claym711 said:

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15% of 7.8B with a 2% death rate is the worst pandemic ever.

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I am not a statistician, but doesn't this assume that you have to be close enough potential for exposure to be counted towards the 15%?

For instance, let's assume that it was in a city near you. If 15% was the rate at which people would come down with the virus, I can follow along with your math. However, if there are zero confirmed cases in the US, then what is the % of potential exposure to each individual person? Wouldn't it be less?

Maybe I am over thinking it.

foleyt said:

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Hospital making progress...

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My source says these makeshift hospitals are simply quarantine centers with no treatment capabilities. Said when they had built these during SARS, anyone who entered them never left. Hope that's not true.

The ones who left were those strong enough to survive, or lucky enough to pay enough bribes. They didn't have enough doctors to treat.

Edit: At least that is what I remember.
Double edit: I was pretty young at the time...

FriendlyAg said:

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claym711 said:

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15% of 7.8B with a 2% death rate is the worst pandemic ever.

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I am not a statistician, but doesn't this assume that you have to be close enough potential for exposure to be counted towards the 15%?

For instance, let's assume that it was in a city near you. If 15% was the rate at which people would come down with the virus, I can follow along with your math. However, if there are zero confirmed cases in the US, then what is the % of potential exposure to each individual person? Wouldn't it be less?

Maybe I am over thinking it.

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Somewhat over thinking. Current odds of US exposure are small, but the quote is merely an assumption of possible outcome.

scottimus said:

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He did say there is an outbreak, just that this virus isn't as lethal as SARS.

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SARS has a mortality rate of about 11%. The latest figures on the Coronavirus are about 3% to 4%.

Not as lethal, but potentially capable of killing as many humans as the Spanish Flu of 1918.

I do have relatives that travel to China and the Far East often, so I am concerned for their safety.

I don't know how many of you are in College Station...but one way or another we are going find out the true effects of this bug...praying for the better.

I think this thread is a good indicator of how the public would react(in CS). A couple a crazy's and mostly people wanting information to make an informative decision for their family.... Just like we talk about winning a MNC every season...its an Internet forum, we go there.

No one is clamoring for violence or hysteria...Houston, however, God help them.

VaultingChemist said:

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scottimus said:

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He did say there is an outbreak, just that this virus isn't as lethal as SARS.

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SARS has a mortality rate of about 11%. The latest figures on the Coronavirus are about 3% to 4%.

Not as lethal, but potentially capable of killing as many humans as the Spanish Flu of 1918.

I do have relatives that travel to China and the Far East often, so I am concerned for their safety.

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SARS is also a coronavirus

So is MERS, which is really the one you should hope never breaks loose. 35-40% mortality. ****ing camels.

VaultingChemist said:

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scottimus said:

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He did say there is an outbreak, just that this virus isn't as lethal as SARS.

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SARS has a mortality rate of about 11%. The latest figures on the Coronavirus are about 3% to 4%.

Not as lethal, but potentially capable of killing as many humans as the Spanish Flu of 1918.

I do have relatives that travel to China and the Far East often, so I am concerned for their safety.

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Where are you getting the 3-4% figure? Only medical data I have seen is Lancet which is only 41 patients and 15%

They kicked the BBC reporter that went into the quarantine zone out already. They initially told him they'd let him in but he couldn't leave.

>High demand of the crematoriums.
>56 deaths

Okay yeah sure I definitely believe the official numbers.