Thanks. Appreciate what you are doing here with the translations and providing some perspective.

https://streamable.com/l4dft

If you are really going to translate all these things for us, I encourage you to go ahead and make a new thread for translations only. Hopefully we can get staff to police it for any offenders. We can leave speculation and discussion over here.

Some new information from UK. Coronavirus will spread faster than SARS.

Text of Study

So I've got a buddy who's traveling with his wife in Seoul right now. They're scheduled to go to Japan in the next few days then on to Thailand.

I told him he's nuts and even though it's not China I wouldn't be caught anywhere in any Asian country. Much less traveling.

Page 1 key finding 2 - only 5.1% of cases are estimated to have been identified. I stopped right there

Ag In Ok said:

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Page 1 key finding 2 - only 5.1% of cases are estimated to have been identified.

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so If they are reporting 1000 that would mean 20,000 infections? Holy crap that is scary as ****!?!

erudite said:

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Video part two:
I have very bad news, preliminary government info has stated that the virus has further mutated into a 2nd generation. In other words, in the first generation, we could treat the patient. Upon the 2nd stage evolution the virus is lethal, the infection ratio is no longer 1:14, but is explosive (exponential). Everyone must hold strong, do not go outside, do not meet people, do not eat out. Thank you everyone.

Send me anything in Chinese and I can translate it aside from maybe the local accents.

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holy ***** i just got chills reading this big time.

reposting my post from yesterday, when i did not believe this was likely the case:

"I am going to go ahead and post this. I dont want to over-alarm, and dont know anything about this outbreak, so i am not saying this is what is happening. So far i dont even think this is what is happening, and am not personally acting in any major way to prepare for anything. But aggies deserve to know the worst case - proven to be possible - scenario.

The russians in the 80's and 90's are known to have engineered *and produced* viruses as deliverable biowarfare agents that are air-transmitable, and hit like the flu for 2 weeks; then symptoms subside like normal flu, patient believing recovered. Then it hits again with reportedly 100% fatality rates.


Several books are out on it. The us had no clue until a defector tipped us and yeltsin ended up admitting he had continued the biopreparat program.

If the chinese with their corrupt culture and construction practices built a bio research lab near the origin point and were copying something like that, it might explain them quarantining 11 cities. Which by the way is now the top 11 quarantines in all of human history.



'The favorite "battle strains" were anthrax (Strain 836), Pasechnik's super-plague, and a special Russian strain of tularemia (Schu-4). By 1991, Alibek stated that Russian scientists had "improved" all three of these so that they could overcome all immune systems and current medical treatments.24 In May 1998, Alibek testified before the U.S. Congress:
It is important to note that, in the Soviet's view, the best biological agents were those for which there was no prevention and no cure. For those agents for which vaccines or treatment existed such as plague, which can be treated with antibiotics antibiotic-resistant or immunosuppressive variants were to be developed.25
Although Biopreparat had worked with a highly virulent, rapidly infectious "battle strain" of smallpox (India-1) since 1959, they began research in 1987 to develop an even more virulent smallpox weapon, and tested it in 1990.26'

[url=https://fas.org/irp/threat/cbw/nextgen.pdf][/url]https://fas.org/irp/threat/cbw/nextgen.pdf

Sleep well folks."





Bio research lab 2 miles from epicenter.
2 stage flu
2 weeks second until second stage hits and is untreatable and fatal.
unprecedented quarantine
censorship



you honestly cannot add this up and think any other scenario is more likely than a catastrophic biowarfare agent is on the loose. one deliberately designed to be a doomsday agent.


either that or this person knows about the russian program and is fear mongering. unlikely.

in my opinion, it is now time to personally prepare for a pandemic. because if what seems to add up is what is really going on, the quarantines, even locally, will not have effect. they were too late, and treated 'recovered' people were released too soon and still infections - which is WHAT THAT BIOPREPARAT PROGRAM INTENDED.

i hope to god it isnt so.

My estimated chance of that video being real information is 0.001%

erudite said:

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HumpitPuryear said:

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couple of observations about this, specifically the lady reporting from Wuhan....

There's also news coming out that authorities are running out of test kits, ie they can't actually confirm infections any longer. Did they really have the resources in Wuhan to verify 90,000 infections? That seems like a wild number.

Regarding the mutations, is that a likely thing to happen already and would the government even let that info get circulated?

There's a major emphasis in both videos about staying put at home and not making contact with anyone. There could be various motives here. Someone earlier mentioned Hong Kong activists. Could the government even be OVER hyping this in an effort to keep people in one place and hammer the message that staying home is safer for them (and less likely to spread the infection, create civil disobedience, and otherwise stress government resources trying to respond)? Staying home seems like really good advice. Could the government be using some scare tactics to drive home the point?

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I cannot tell you because I do not know. It is possible if she was not censored. However, if it was from telegram I do not think that the government would deliberately loose face.

Link to test kit source, I do not know.
Her statement with infection implies it was something she overheard. And likely no.

I will tell you when my source outside the outbreak zone (small town of ~3M people) tells me when they start sealing off likes SARS. Then we will know it is worse then SARS. During the SARS outbreak they would quarantine the entire building, street, city. You would haves armed units turn back people from all major cities.

You are underestimating the role of lunar new year. China has very few national holidays with days off and Chinese people work 6 day weeks. Lunar new year is one of the few 2+ days off on the calendar. That and many people see their family once a year and it is then.

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According to the analysis that was posted above, it is predicted to be worse than SARS.

Page 4

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/view

Ag_07 said:

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So I've got a buddy who's traveling with his wife in Seoul right now. They're scheduled to go to Japan in the next few days then on to Thailand.

I told him he's nuts and even though it's not China I wouldn't be caught anywhere in any Asian country. Much less traveling.

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Japan would certainly risk as would like to visit, but I would avoid the mainland for now.

Ag In Ok said:

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Page 1 key finding 2 - only 5.1% of cases are estimated to have been identified. I stopped right there

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Key Findings:

Quote:

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We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (0) to be significantly greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing.
We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.85.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.
If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days' time (4 February 2020), our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250 thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February.
There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These should be considered when interpreting our findings.

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It is hard to validate any number from their. Govt lies to protect themselves and social media can lie to go after the govt.

90k is still less than 1% of the Wuhan population.

So who knows at this point.

Rapier108 said:

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Oh good grief.

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Yeah... I'm not plannning my working from home for a month plan yet.

Rapier108 said:

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Oh good grief.

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the bio agents i posted are factual. IF the purported video is factual, then there is at significant possibilty that this is a major worldwide issue. it is certainly an absolutely unprecedented local issue in china already. they are 100% certainly lying about the truth of the matter.


im not suggesting run to the desert and hide.

but i am going to top off the gas, water and food, and stay away from crowds for a week and see how this plays out.

if you dont do the same, you are unwise, IMO.

mocking it is worse.

No **** they traveled to China

bmks270 said:

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https://streamable.com/l4dft

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already translated.

yukmonkey said:

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No **** they traveled to China

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The fun starts when they do the case histories and find that people who didn't travel in the West have it.

If you want to believe this is some Soviet/Russian bio weapon, knock yourself out.

That is just way too far out there. Occam's razor is almost always right about stuff like this, not the outrageous doomsday theories.

aezmvp said:

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yukmonkey said:

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No **** they traveled to China

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The fun starts when they do the case histories and find that people who didn't travel in the West have

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Hopefully A&M, if are smart, tested other people that the individual came in contact with to see if they are already infected.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3091049/replies/55884962
Translation thread up.

scottimus said:

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aezmvp said:

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yukmonkey said:

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No **** they traveled to China

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The fun starts when they do the case histories and find that people who didn't travel in the West have

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Hopefully A&M, if are smart, tested other people that the individual came in contact with to see if they are already infected.

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They won't even inform people they might have been exposed because it would "violate the patient's privacy."

Rapier108 said:

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scottimus said:

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aezmvp said:

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yukmonkey said:

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No **** they traveled to China

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The fun starts when they do the case histories and find that people who didn't travel in the West have

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Hopefully A&M, if are smart, tested other people that the individual came in contact with to see if they are already infected.

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They won't even inform people they might have been exposed because it would "violate the patient's privacy."

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HIPPA I think. Layman EMS understand we are not allow to disclose under any reasons. Leave it to PR people lest we get sued into oblivion.

Rapier108 said:

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scottimus said:

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aezmvp said:

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yukmonkey said:

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No **** they traveled to China

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The fun starts when they do the case histories and find that people who didn't travel in the West have

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Hopefully A&M, if are smart, tested other people that the individual came in contact with to see if they are already infected.

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They won't even inform people they might have been exposed because it would "violate the patient's privacy."

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You would think that for the sake of national security and a viral pandemic...they would let that slide.

The kid is not even American (likely).

If it is an A&M student, and the university knows who it is, the university can release the information because at that point it would fall under FERPA (because FERPA trumps HIPPA if the record can be classified as a FERPA record), and FERPA allows for the release of information without student consent in a health or safety emergency.

The catch here is A&M would have to know who it is.

scottimus said:

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Rapier108 said:

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scottimus said:

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aezmvp said:

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yukmonkey said:

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No **** they traveled to China

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The fun starts when they do the case histories and find that people who didn't travel in the West have

---

Hopefully A&M, if are smart, tested other people that the individual came in contact with to see if they are already infected.

---

They won't even inform people they might have been exposed because it would "violate the patient's privacy."

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You would think that for the sake of national security and a viral pandemic...they would let that slide.

The kid is not even American (likely).

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If the case is confirmed I believe the CDC or State Department of Health Services would be sending people to make a contact tree. Could be wrong there but I doubt it. Feel for the folks back there, wish they'd confirm whether or not it's a case.

Rapier108 said:

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If you want to believe this is some Soviet/Russian bio weapon, knock yourself out.

That is just way too far out there. Occam's razor is almost always right about stuff like this, not the outrageous doomsday theories.

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i just said i didnt believe it at all at first.
then i said IF this chinese video is true, then that is the only explanation i know of for it.

it doesnt mean 'this IS the old russian bioweapon. who knows what it is, but that weapon exists and the chinese government would be just the kind of folks that would be studying it today. they are known for corruption and poor quality and frankly lots of neurotic people... so it could get out by accident, or on purpose, for who knows what reason or no good reason.

then i said based on these facts, you should prepare accordingly.

if you think there is no reason to consider that possibility, based on 'occams razor' then good for you. I suggest you dont mock other people who think applying the known information to 'occam's razor' gets a different result.

your occams razor is "it cant be serious because it usually isnt'


my occams razor formula is:

"china has forcibly quarantined over 12 cities with over 46 million people' + 'no one has ever attempted such a radical move in human history' + 'china is reporting (untruthfully of course) that only a few thousand people are sick' + 'the epicenter is nearby a recently built bioresearch faciilty' + 'the russians created a 2nd kick fatal flue weapon 20 years ago' +'now a purported bootleg video shows a chinese nurse warning that this flue has a fatal second kick and the government numbers are way wrong' + 'there are confirmed cases in the US already = go buy some water and stay away from crowds fora week or so.

you interpret that as:

'you idiot, good grief'


ok genius. whatever.

cbr said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Oh good grief.

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the bio agents i posted are factual. IF the purported video is factual, then there is at significant possibilty that this is a major worldwide issue. it is certainly an absolutely unprecedented local issue in china already. they are 100% certainly lying about the truth of the matter.


im not suggesting run to the desert and hide.

but i am going to top off the gas, water and food, and stay away from crowds for a week and see how this plays out.

if you dont do the same, you are unwise, IMO.

mocking it is worse.

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Living in a hurricane-prone area, we usually buy extra water/food/batteries/etc in the spring and then use/replenish as the summer goes on.

I'm gonna go ahead and start a little earlier this year.

Chengdu might get quarantined.

That's like NYC/ LA getting quarantined.

aezmvp said:

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yukmonkey said:

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No **** they traveled to China

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The fun starts when they do the case histories and find that people who didn't travel in the West have it.

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You will find they got it from being in proximity to someone who did travel to China though in almost all certainty.

Tramp96 said:

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If it is an A&M student, and the university knows who it is, the university can release the information because at that point it would fall under FERPA (because FERPA trumps HIPPA if the record can be classified as a FERPA record), and FERPA allows for the release of information without student consent in a health or safety emergency.

The catch here is A&M would have to know who it is.

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Do you guys know at least which part of the campus to avoid, which building went to?

titan said:

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Tramp96 said:

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If it is an A&M student, and the university knows who it is, the university can release the information because at that point it would fall under FERPA (because FERPA trumps HIPPA if the record can be classified as a FERPA record), and FERPA allows for the release of information without student consent in a health or safety emergency.

The catch here is A&M would have to know who it is.

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Do you guys know at least which part of the campus to avoid, which building went to?

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Nope, because they won't tell anyone, anything.

Rapier108 said:

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If you want to believe this is some Soviet/Russian bio weapon, knock yourself out.

That is just way too far out there. Occam's razor is almost always right about stuff like this, not the outrageous doomsday theories.

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Another point. Even if all was stipulated, the assumption that 21st Century China chose to replicate that Soviet stuff and build it in just the past decade does not at all follow from the first.

This isn't an outbreak starting from a closed old Soviet lab area in Russia, for example, or the possible connection would have to be considered.