titan said:

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What are the alert levels? What would 1918 be classed as today?

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These are the CDC travel alert levels. 3 is the highest.

Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.

Alert Level 2 (Yellow): Practice enhanced precautions for this destination. The Travel Health Notice describes additional precautions added, or defines a specific at-risk population.

Watch Level 1 (Green): Practice usual precautions for this destination, as described in the Travel Health Notice and/or on the destination page. This includes being up-to-date on all recommended vaccines and practicing appropriate mosquito avoidance.

Infected people seen 'dead in streets'

Some else had a better post.

Ewww, yikes. It is ALREADY at the highest level? Had assumed there were at least two more. So where can it go. So that is what 1918 would be called now?

The Senate needs to dismiss this stupid farce so that Trump can focus on possible actions for an epidemic. Good thing don't have some wobbly POTUS if something like this is rising up.

There are a ton of videos of people collapsing and medics in full iso suits attending to them on Twitter but there's no way to tell if any of them are real

We need to know the morbidity rate and the mortality rate.

Morbidity rate tells us the rate at which people contract the virus

Mortality rate tells us the rate at which people who have contracted the virus die.

If we have those measures we'll know how severe it is. The liklihood China will provide that is low.

JB99 said:

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We need to know the morbidity rate and the mortality rate.

Morbidity rate tells us the rate at which people contract the virus

Mortality rate tells us the rate at which people who have contracted the virus die.

If we have those measures we'll know how severe it is. The liklihood China will provide that is low.

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Well any real 00 type `deep plant' agents that happen to be there hopefully will be re-directed to simply intelligence gathering. I am sure the Japanese have some.

Anyone up to speed on how SARS and swine flu responses were compared to this?

titan said:

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What are the alert levels? What would 1918 be classed as today?

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https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices#travel-notice-definitions

• Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.
• Alert Level 2 (Yellow): Practice enhanced precautions for this destination. The Travel Health Notice describes additional precautions added, or defines a specific at-risk population.Watch Level
• 1 (Green): Practice usual precautions for this destination, as described in the Travel Health Notice and/or on the destination page. This includes being up-to-date on all recommended vaccines and practicing appropriate mosquito avoidance.

CDC just pushed this to a level 3 for the Wuhan province. Rest of China is still level 1, for some stupid reason.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/warning/novel-coronavirus-wuhan-china

titan said:

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Ewww, yikes. It is ALREADY at the highest level? Had assumed there were at least two more. So where can it go. So that is what 1918 would be called now?

The Senate needs to dismiss this stupid farce so that Trump can focus on possible actions for an epidemic. Good thing don't have some wobbly POTUS if something like this is rising up.

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Alert level 3 for Wuhan province makes sense, as China's banning all travel in and out of there already. Why would our CDC do anything less?

I'm pretty sure Trump and his team are capable of multi-tasking, especially as he's largely unconcerned with the trial (it ain't like he's stuck in the Senate chamber every day for this).

It does feel like if China is locking down high population cities that the CDC should be bumping our alert level to a 2 or 3 for the entirety of China.

I travel to China 2-3 times a year. I made the mistake one year of traveling over there around their CNY. It makes our Thanksgiving travel looks small by comparison. The timing of this couldn't have been worse from a containment perspective (in my very amateur opinion).

yukmonkey said:

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Anyone up to speed on how SARS and swine flu responses were compared to this?

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China in 2003 was a very different and less mobile China. It's hard to overstate how far they've come in only 20 years.

That said, they have zero qualms about the "human rights" of individuals, and can probably quarantine more...effectively than most. That said, their population is so large that a fraction of the population is still millions of people.

RAB91 said:

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I travel to China 2-3 times a year. I made the mistake one year of traveling over there around their CNY. That was a mistake. It makes our Thanksgiving travel looks small by comparison. The timing of this couldn't have been worse from a containment perspective (in my very amateur opinion).

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You're correct but worse than that is that because of their increased middle and upper classes travel internationally at a much higher rate as well which could lead to a significant problem. Especially if this thing has an extended incubation time of more than 5 days, lots and lots of people could have it, have no fever (which is the easiest trackable symptom in mass at airports) and then be just a disaster on every major neighboring country and tourist destination.

foleyt said:

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4 cities in lock down. In US equivalents.....Lock down the entire state of Illinois or Pennsylvania.


I am not saying its time to panic, but they are certainly not telling the truth about what is actually happening.

The Fife said:

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titan said:

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What are the alert levels? What would 1918 be classed as today?

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These are the CDC travel alert levels. 3 is the highest.

Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.

Alert Level 2 (Yellow): Practice enhanced precautions for this destination. The Travel Health Notice describes additional precautions added, or defines a specific at-risk population.

Watch Level 1 (Green): Practice usual precautions for this destination, as described in the Travel Health Notice and/or on the destination page. This includes being up-to-date on all recommended vaccines and practicing appropriate mosquito avoidance.

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US State Department travel Advisory is Level 2 for China. Travel Advisory level 4 is no travel at the State Department which is different than CDC travel alert, but we should still watch.

Quote:

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Level 1 Blue Exercise Normal Precautions: This is the lowest advisory level for safety and security risks and at the moment, it includes countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Norway, Finland and Japan.

Level 2 Yellow- Exercise Increased Caution: The State Department says that travelers to these countries should "Be aware of heightened risks to safety and security." This is a very wide category indeed and includes countries such as Italy, Belgium and Denmark, all of them singled out for possible occurrences of terrorism. South Africa and Brazil make this list for crime, as does Mexico.

Level 3 Orange Reconsider Travel:

"Avoid travel due to serious risks to safety and security," says the State Department, of this list that currently includes Turkey, Chad, Haiti and Russia.

Level 4 Red Do Not Travel:

The highest advisory level "due to greater likelihood of life-threatening risks. During an emergency, the U.S. government may have very limited ability to provide assistance. The Department of State advises that U.S. citizens not travel to the country or to leave as soon as it is safe to do so." This list singles out Afghanistan, Central African Republic, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Mali, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen.

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/everettpotter/2018/08/23/us-state-departments-new-travel-warning-system/#429672f6deeb

aezmvp said:

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RAB91 said:

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I travel to China 2-3 times a year. I made the mistake one year of traveling over there around their CNY. That was a mistake. It makes our Thanksgiving travel looks small by comparison. The timing of this couldn't have been worse from a containment perspective (in my very amateur opinion).

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You're correct but worse than that is that because of their increased middle and upper classes travel internationally at a much higher rate as well which could lead to a significant problem.

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So now Chinese tourists won't be cutting all the lines to get into attractions faster, they'll be cutting lines to get everyone inside infected quicker!

RAB91 said:

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I travel to China 2-3 times a year. I made the mistake one year of traveling over there around their CNY. That was a mistake. It makes our Thanksgiving travel looks small by comparison. The timing of this couldn't have been worse from a containment perspective (in my very amateur opinion).

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True, but that is where the nature of that regime may prove a plus for once. If anyone can shut down a festival season on demand, it is Maoist-marinated China. No Western nation would have a shot at the resolve needed or the lack of legal encumbrances. That they are even trying to cancel it is scary to scared-out-of-wits kind of concern.

Mr.Infectious said:

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foleyt said:

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4 cities in lock down. In US equivalents.....Lock down the entire state of Illinois or Pennsylvania.


I am not saying its time to panic, but they are certainly not telling the truth about what is actually happening.

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Not panicking here, but i am curious as to how the Chinese governments response is being described in the controlled media. When this all started what jumped out to me was their emphasis on order and control. Seems like they knew early on this would get out of hand. Easier to control a cover up when the message early and often is "not the government "

They have to be getting close to closing the borders completely. Nothing moves in or out of China for a minimum of 10 days. No planes, ships, trains, hot air balloons, walkers or yak riders. Given how its already in the wild elsewhere I don't know that will stop the spread but it will contain the continued spread from the largest infected population.

mathguy86 said:

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They have to be getting close to closing the borders completely. Nothing moves in or out of China for a minimum of 10 days. No planes, ships, trains, hot air balloons, walkers or yak riders. Given how its already in the wild elsewhere I don't know that will stop the spread but it will contain the continued spread from the largest infected population.

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As JB99 pointed out, what will come to bear on whether that approach could be successful is mortality and morbidity rates. If it is something where containing or slowing continued spread is enough time for it to fizzle out, that will be important.

mathguy86 said:

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They have to be getting close to closing the borders completely. Nothing moves in or out of China for a minimum of 10 days. No planes, ships, trains, hot air balloons, walkers or yak riders. Given how its already in the wild elsewhere I don't know that will stop the spread but it will contain the continued spread from the largest infected population.

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Geez, how many billions of dollars would that cost the world? Would think we would need to be living the plot of The Stand before that happens.

Zemira said:

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The Fife said:

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titan said:

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What are the alert levels? What would 1918 be classed as today?

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These are the CDC travel alert levels. 3 is the highest.

Warning Level 3 (Red): Avoid all non-essential travel to this destination. The outbreak is of high risk to travelers and no precautions are available to protect against the identified increased risk.

Alert Level 2 (Yellow): Practice enhanced precautions for this destination. The Travel Health Notice describes additional precautions added, or defines a specific at-risk population.

Watch Level 1 (Green): Practice usual precautions for this destination, as described in the Travel Health Notice and/or on the destination page. This includes being up-to-date on all recommended vaccines and practicing appropriate mosquito avoidance.

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Alert level 4 is no travel per state department travel alerts which are different than CDC

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Too bad the state dept. is too busy trying to get Trump. China's quarantined cities with populations totalling over 20 million so far, yet those responsible for this part of our national safety seem unconcerned enough to ban travel over there.

SJEAg said:

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mathguy86 said:

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They have to be getting close to closing the borders completely. Nothing moves in or out of China for a minimum of 10 days. No planes, ships, trains, hot air balloons, walkers or yak riders. Given how its already in the wild elsewhere I don't know that will stop the spread but it will contain the continued spread from the largest infected population.

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Geez, how many billions of dollars would that cost the world? Would think we would need to be living the plot of The Stand before that happens.

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Earlier I said the economic impact would be huge if China has to close borders and specifically ports. Manufacturing goods would be impacted dramatically.

The other question is if you can contain it outside China, but it is running rampant in China, how long this fizzles out? Weeks? Months!

This **** is scary since China is never honest about anything!

mathguy86 said:

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They have to be getting close to closing the borders completely. Nothing moves in or out of China for a minimum of 10 days. No planes, ships, trains, hot air balloons, walkers or yak riders. Given how its already in the wild elsewhere I don't know that will stop the spread but it will contain the continued spread from the largest infected population.

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If you see a lot of video of people in the streets motionless or of say a crazy pile of bodies in a morgue... I think something along those lines might cause the borders to get closed. A lot of these surrounding countries would sacrifice a huge amount of money missing on the tourism. Nothing short of a really massive leak or China shutting down say Guangzhou (Canton), Shanghai and Tainjin or equivalents would do it.

aezmvp said:

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mathguy86 said:

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They have to be getting close to closing the borders completely. Nothing moves in or out of China for a minimum of 10 days. No planes, ships, trains, hot air balloons, walkers or yak riders. Given how its already in the wild elsewhere I don't know that will stop the spread but it will contain the continued spread from the largest infected population.

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If you see a lot of video of people in the streets motionless or of say a crazy pile of bodies in a morgue... I think something along those lines might cause the borders to get closed. A lot of these surrounding countries would sacrifice a huge amount of money missing on the tourism. Nothing short of a really massive leak or China shutting down say Guangzhou (Canton), Shanghai and Tainjin or equivalents would do it.

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Well another factor is to consider the difference between something that makes many sick, and kills a few. If it is more flu like in that it doesn't just kill most, then things are not going to be shut down or commerce stop just to arrest its progress. But if it is something that does kill more often than not, then there will be escalating quarantines.

Shutting down cities of millions over a few hundred deaths? Come on man that's malarkey. The actual numbers must be orders of magnitude worse.

And the time to close down Chinese air traffic is now. Not after it already has shown up in significant ways in other countries.

aezmvp said:

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mathguy86 said:

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They have to be getting close to closing the borders completely. Nothing moves in or out of China for a minimum of 10 days. No planes, ships, trains, hot air balloons, walkers or yak riders. Given how its already in the wild elsewhere I don't know that will stop the spread but it will contain the continued spread from the largest infected population.

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If you see a lot of video of people in the streets motionless or of say a crazy pile of bodies in a morgue... I think something along those lines might cause the borders to get closed. A lot of these surrounding countries would sacrifice a huge amount of money missing on the tourism. Nothing short of a really massive leak or China shutting down say Guangzhou (Canton), Shanghai and Tainjin or equivalents would do it.

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Well...just today I have seen at least 4 videos on twitter of people laying motionless on the street/hospital/market....

Hogties said:

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Shutting down cities of millions over a few hundred deaths? Come on man that's malarkey. The actual numbers must be orders of magnitude worse.

And the time to close down Chinese air traffic is now. Not after it already has shown up in significant ways in other countries.

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IMO They knew (or at least suspected) that it was from the lab in Wuhan from the start.

It's hard to believe, they would go through all of these extreme measures unless they knew for certain how dangerous the virus is.


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Hogties said:

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Shutting down cities of millions over a few hundred deaths? Come on man that's malarkey. The actual numbers must be orders of magnitude worse.

And the time to close down Chinese air traffic is now. Not after it already has shown up in significant ways in other countries.

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Joe Biden will not tolerate that stuff. He will just declare a cure soon.

I read the incubation period of this can be up to 14 days. If that's true, we probably already missed the window to contain this. It's already in Beijing and Hong Kong and outside China. The next 7 days could be eye opening.

Mr.Infectious said:

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Hogties said:

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Shutting down cities of millions over a few hundred deaths? Come on man that's malarkey. The actual numbers must be orders of magnitude worse.

And the time to close down Chinese air traffic is now. Not after it already has shown up in significant ways in other countries.

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IMO They knew (or at least suspected) that it was from the lab in Wuhan from the start.

It's hard to believe, they would go through all of these extreme measures unless they knew for certain how dangerous the virus is.

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That is what is so worrisome. It suggest China knows exactly what it is, so they are not dragging feet about it. Its our side that seems to be dragging feet. Congress is worthless -- someone needs to ask Trump at the next interview if he will order a shut off from there--- make it the topic of the moment, and he will focus on it.

Its even worse if it is really entirely man-made. It wouldn't have natural weaknesses.

Jeez, I just started reading World War Z last night!

Seriously this is scary bad.

If this gets worse it's going to be brutal for countries like Thailand, Cambodia, etc.

This time of year they receive tons of visitors from mainland China. It's going to hit their economies hard if those numbers dramatically fall off. Not to mention the threat will start causing Europeans and Americans to cancel their plans to travel in the region.