Get the Vax

72,525 Views | 709 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by The Hefty Lefty
Zobel
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Meh. You can't have it both ways. Either open datasets aren't useful for analyzing causation or drawing conclusion or they are.

The problem with information is it's essentially guaranteed these days that any information at all will be distorted and weaponized. The amount of active disinformation going around is truly impressive. Brandolini's Law comes into play.
chimpanzee
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Zobel said:

Meh. You can't have it both ways. Either open datasets aren't useful for analyzing causation or drawing conclusion or they are.

The problem with information is it's essentially guaranteed these days that any information at all will be distorted and weaponized. The amount of active disinformation going around is truly impressive. Brandolini's Law comes into play.

You start with an open data set and then you need answers to what you find. This seems important enough to warrant transparency rather than an appeal to authorities that pretend to know things that they don't and hide the rest.

People will believe falsehoods if they want, but incentives to operate off of the truth will win outside of politics.
Zobel
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I used to agree with you about information being open. I am not sure I do anymore.

There's a cost benefit to open information. There are people who actively do harm with it. This is why we can't have nice things.
NicosMachine
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The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant. The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID. So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.
NicosMachine
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Zobel said:

I used to agree with you about information being open. I am not sure I do anymore.

There's a cost benefit to open information. There are people who actively do harm with it. This is why we can't have nice things.
The government needs to control the flow of information to the rubes. Information is dangerous in their hands. Information should be controlled by a group of educated and technical persons, not by a bunch of dirty, blue-collar, NASCAR-watching, hillbillies.
NicosMachine
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Zobel said:

Meh. You can't have it both ways. Either open datasets aren't useful for analyzing causation or drawing conclusion or they are.

The problem with information is it's essentially guaranteed these days that any information at all will be distorted and weaponized. The amount of active disinformation going around is truly impressive. Brandolini's Law comes into play.
Some would argue that the data is being distorted and weaponized at the highest levels. Look at "Covid deaths" and "vaccine deaths". If the same standard were applied to determine "covid deaths" as there is to "vaccine deaths", there would be very few "covid deaths". When people die with 4 serious underlying conditions and had Covid, causation is very difficult to prove. Same with the vaccine. If someone dies shortly after getting a vaccine, causation is difficult to prove. Nonetheless, with Covid deaths, causation was assumed and with vaccine deaths it is not (and rightfully so).
chimpanzee
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Then you are at the mercy of the people with the data and whatever they come up with enforced at the point of a government rifle, that's terrible.
Zobel
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You're at their mercy anyway.
chimpanzee
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Zobel said:

You're at their mercy anyway.
Not if the government rifle keeps them from hiding it. Hard to trust how it's wielded though, I will grant you that.

You need some principles above your own power, don't know know if we can count on that.

I'm not counting out informed debate just yet, so I want to enable it.
nortex97
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NicosMachine said:

The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant. The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID. So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.
That's perhaps the only real risk for the elderly, but there is a real question as to long term health/fertility/stillborn rates for kids who are administered the vaccines, among others. There have been a lot of credible reports of an increase in miscarriages over the past year.
Zobel
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Quote:

The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant.

Facts which are inconvenient to your argument are not irrelevant.

Quote:

The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID.

This is false, except in a binary sense which is a false dichotomy. No vaccines are perfect. It's an odds ratio, a relative risk reduction.

Quote:

So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.

This is a truly impressive piece of distorted logic. Let's see you show your work. Start with relative risk for each and multiply them through.
Macarthur
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nortex97 said:

NicosMachine said:

The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant. The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID. So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.
That's perhaps the only real risk for the elderly, but there is a real question as to long term health/fertility/stillborn rates for kids who are administered the vaccines, among others. There have been a lot of credible reports of an increase in miscarriages over the past year.

What credible reports? And what constitutes 'a lot'?
Zobel
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NicosMachine said:

The government needs to control the flow of information to the rubes. Information is dangerous in their hands. Information should be controlled by a group of educated and technical persons, not by a bunch of dirty, blue-collar, NASCAR-watching, hillbillies.

Nice straw man, but that's not my argument.

We recognize that information has competing interests for public good between sharing and not. I doubt you'll argue for ending all classified documents or sealed public records.

Broad access to uncontrolled, unfiltered, or error-ridden datasets isn't an unqualified good. There's value in review of information before release.

There's a spectrum - like most things, it's not binary.
Zobel
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If he problem is there is a non-theoretical risk here. Demonstrable harm has been done by disinformation and dissemination of false or fraudulent research. There's value in review. Pre prints and open data sets aren't always good. VAERS and it's weaponization is a great example. Good tool, serves a very important purpose… probably shouldn't be open access to the public.
Zobel
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The "75% of people who died had 4 or more comorbidites" was the finding of a study of exclusively vaccinated patients.
NicosMachine
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Zobel said:

Quote:

The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant.

Facts which are inconvenient to your argument are not irrelevant.

Quote:

The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID.

This is false, except in a binary sense which is a false dichotomy. No vaccines are perfect. It's an odds ratio, a relative risk reduction.

Quote:

So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.

This is a truly impressive piece of distorted logic. Let's see you show your work. Start with relative risk for each and multiply them through.
You can't quantify the risk of getting Covid with a vaccine because the vaccine's efficacy wane so quickly. Are we talking 1 month after getting the vaccine, 6 months, 9 months? Evidence suggests the booster is effective at preventing Omicron, but even the CEO of Pfizer is recently on record saying the first two shots are not effective against Omicron. Additionally, several studies have quantified the risk of myocarditis after Covid vaccine but I've yet to see one quantify the risk of myocarditis after repeated vaccinations/boosters. The risk and reward of the vaccine insofar as it relates to myocarditis is not quantifiable.
chimpanzee
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Zobel said:

If he problem is there is a non-theoretical risk here. Demonstrable harm has been done by disinformation and dissemination of false or fraudulent research. There's value in review. Pre prints and open data sets aren't always good. VAERS and it's weaponization is a great example. Good tool, serves a very important purpose… probably shouldn't be open access to the public.
Demonstrable harm has been done by disinformation and dissemination of false and fraudulent research by the very same authorities you would have us defer to and on a massive scale while they suppress. Look at the rates of pediatric drug and alcohol deaths or the all cause mortality increases of everyone under 40 following the societal disruption caused by recommendations, research and information released by public health?

Can you see harm in an empty grocery store shelf, skyrocketing inflation, or people thinking they have 100x more risk than they actually do? How about people going out to a crowded indoor space with poor ventilation while sick but thinking it will be fine because they have a loose rag across their face? To me, that's far worse than dumb people listening to fringe voices that tell them to eat horse dewormer based on half cocked analysis.

Zobel
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You seem to be unaware that longitudinal studies have been done to evaluate vaccine efficacy over time.

You also are making the mistake of ignoring that vaccines have multiple efficacy numbers - for example vs infection, symptomatic disease, and against hospitalization. Hospitalization efficacy is extremely high and robust over time.

Studies have examined the safety profile of boosters. Your ignorance to a topic is not evidence.
Zobel
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I disagree. You're making a mistake by lumping in fraudulent research with research that is later falsified by newer research. There is a material difference between making a good faith effort to achieve the best public health outcomes and misinformation.

You yourself acknowledged the need to separate political influence out.

The problem is you have too much faith in medicine and public health. When they fail, you're incensed. But where did they succeed? What example can you put forward of somewhere that did a good job handling this? From what I see most of what we done was the broadly accepted response to pandemics going back for thirty years. You can't fault people for executing a plan that more or less everyone acknowledges was the right way simply because you have hindsight.

I'm not going to defend the noble lie, but I can understand it. But the noble lie from a public policy perspective is *not* the same topic or issue as whether unfiltered access to these kinds of datasets is on balance a good or bad thing. Keep the lines clear, and I suspect you'll find we agree more than we disagree.
chimpanzee
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NicosMachine said:

Zobel said:

Quote:

The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant.

Facts which are inconvenient to your argument are not irrelevant.

Quote:

The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID.

This is false, except in a binary sense which is a false dichotomy. No vaccines are perfect. It's an odds ratio, a relative risk reduction.

Quote:

So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.

This is a truly impressive piece of distorted logic. Let's see you show your work. Start with relative risk for each and multiply them through.
You can't quantify the risk of getting Covid with a vaccine because the vaccine's efficacy wane so quickly. Are we talking 1 month after getting the vaccine, 6 months, 9 months. Evidence suggests the booster is effective at preventing Omicron, but even the CEO of Pfizer is recently on record saying the first two shots are not effective against Omicron. Additionally, several studies have quantified the risk of myocarditis after Covid vaccine but I've yet to see one quantify the risk of myocarditis after repeated vaccinations/boosters. The risk and reward of the vaccine insofar as it relates to myocarditis is not quantifiable.
There's surveillance data out of the UK that shows the vaccinated getting infected at higher rates than the unvaxxed. There's some debate over the way the populations are pulled, but that disagreement is on the fringes of the internet in people talking up what they want to believe, and the agency pushing the data is not changing the way they show it.

It would be a hell of a sampling artifact, but it's worth trying to explain, and they are not, but credit to the UK for not yanking it offline yet.



NicosMachine
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Zobel said:

You seem to be unaware that longitudinal studies have been done to evaluate vaccine efficacy over time.

You also are making the mistake of ignoring that vaccines have multiple efficacy numbers - for example vs infection, symptomatic disease, and against hospitalization. Hospitalization efficacy is extremely high and robust over time.

Studies have examined the safety profile of boosters. Your ignorance to a topic is not evidence.
We were talking about myocarditis. There is a given risk of myocarditis associated with infection. That is proven. The vaccine efficacy against Covid infection is proven to wane over time. Two doses of Pfizer are projected to provide 30% protection against Omicron infection. There is a proven risk of myocarditis associated with vaccination. Therefore, if you are are vaccinated AND get Covid you have increased your risk of myocarditis relative to someone who has not been vaccinated. I understand there are other risks, but relative to myocarditis the statements I've made are accurate.
NicosMachine
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chimpanzee said:

NicosMachine said:

Zobel said:

Quote:

The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant.

Facts which are inconvenient to your argument are not irrelevant.

Quote:

The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID.

This is false, except in a binary sense which is a false dichotomy. No vaccines are perfect. It's an odds ratio, a relative risk reduction.

Quote:

So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.

This is a truly impressive piece of distorted logic. Let's see you show your work. Start with relative risk for each and multiply them through.
You can't quantify the risk of getting Covid with a vaccine because the vaccine's efficacy wane so quickly. Are we talking 1 month after getting the vaccine, 6 months, 9 months. Evidence suggests the booster is effective at preventing Omicron, but even the CEO of Pfizer is recently on record saying the first two shots are not effective against Omicron. Additionally, several studies have quantified the risk of myocarditis after Covid vaccine but I've yet to see one quantify the risk of myocarditis after repeated vaccinations/boosters. The risk and reward of the vaccine insofar as it relates to myocarditis is not quantifiable.
There's surveillance data out of the UK that shows the vaccinated getting infected at higher rates than the unvaxxed. There's some debate over the way the populations are pulled, but that disagreement is on the fringes of the internet in people talking up what they want to believe, and the agency pushing the data is not changing the way they show it.

It would be a hell of a sampling artifact, but it's worth trying to explain, and they are not, but credit to the UK for not yanking it offline yet.




Iceland, with one 90% vaccination rate, has similar numbers. While boostered persons have more protection against Omicron, double vaxxed persons are experiencing higher infection rates than unvaxxed. For purposes of this discussion I'll accept the South African data that Pfizer reduced infection by 30%.

Zobel
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Your analysis is incomplete. You need to reduce the increased risk of myocarditis from the vaccine by the relative risk reduction of infection and it's risk of myocarditis.

It's also oversimplified. Have you considered, for example, that COVID may carry a different myocarditis risk for vaccinated vs unvaccinated individuals? It reduces the risk of hospitalization this way.
nortex97
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Macarthur said:

nortex97 said:

NicosMachine said:

The question of whether COVID carries a bigger risk of myocarditis than the vaccine is irrelevant. The vaccine doesn't stop you from getting COVID. So if the vax increases your risk at all, and so does COVID, and you end up getting COVID while vaccinated ... vax increases risk of myocarditis.
That's perhaps the only real risk for the elderly, but there is a real question as to long term health/fertility/stillborn rates for kids who are administered the vaccines, among others. There have been a lot of credible reports of an increase in miscarriages over the past year.

What credible reports? And what constitutes 'a lot'?
What reports do I need to cite? The thread we had about miscarriages in Odessa/Midland late last year? The former Pfizer VP discussing the risk, and how the vaccine seems to concentrate in the ovaries? You have a web browser and can decide on your own to find the reports, just don't use google as a search engine. Anything I post is apparently just q-anon and conspiracy theories, so I am about done posting links here, just reporting what I've read.

People can ignore or look up or refute arguments as they wish. There's no need for sourcing on this forum.
NicosMachine
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Zobel said:

The "75% of people who died had 4 or more comorbidites" was the finding of a study of exclusively vaccinated patients.
Overwhelming percentage (93%) of all deaths attributed to Covid had at least one comorbidity. My point, as you know, was to illustrate the difficulty of attributing deaths "caused by Covid" and comparing that the way we don't attribute deaths or illness to the vaccine due to difficulty proving causation. Deaths of people who were sick from one or more causes AND had Covid were automatically attributed to Covid without proof of causation. Vaccinated persons who become sick or die shortly after vaccination are not presumed to be sick or die due to the vaccine because causation cannot be established. We count Covid differently that the vaccine. Proof of causation should be required for both.

NicosMachine
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Zobel said:

Your analysis is incomplete. You need to reduce the increased risk of myocarditis from the vaccine by the relative risk reduction of infection and it's risk of myocarditis.

It's also oversimplified. Have you considered, for example, that COVID may carry a different myocarditis risk for vaccinated vs unvaccinated individuals? It reduces the risk of hospitalization this way.
I agree that Covid MAY carry a different myocarditis risk for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The risk MAY be higher and it may be lower. I'm trying not to speculate and only speak to facts we know.
Zobel
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You can't cite reliable evidence because there isn't any.

You can't make a case against expert opinion when it is convenient (e.g., you can't listen to Fauci) then make the exact same structured argument by appealing to a former Pfizer VP.

The problem is that you have a confirmation bias issue. You accept without inspection ideas that confirm your worldview, and you're extremely suspicious of things that aren't. This is solider mindset in a nutshell. It's difficult, but when you find yourself doing this you should attempt to subject ideas to the same level of inspection, apply the same level of rigor, and be equally skeptical regardless of your prior inclination to believe them or not.

This doesn't mean you have to chunk your priors out the window! It also doesn't mean you can't hope to find one or the other false. But it does expect a higher level of intellectual curiosity and consistency than you're demonstrating here.

You would absolutely not accept the level of evidence you're presenting here to support your position as a rebuttal. When you are met with a request to provide better evidence, you just punt. It's crap.

The letter you linked that says ivermectin is a curative is junk that doesn't even try to present evidence.

The article you just linked is a cautionary tale that doesn't appeal to evidence of risk, instead relying on the fact that there is insufficient (in that person's opinion) demonstrated evidence of efficacy. There's a lot of rhetorical slight of hand with regard to the phrase "no evidence" and you can't shift between the different uses casually in any kind of discussion that you hope to get some value out of.
Zobel
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A majority of Americans have at least one of the comorbidities which increase risk of death from covid (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure) and something like 40% of adults have at least two. That percentage increases with age.

A comorbidity doesn't kill you. That's why it's not the cause of death. Being diabetic or overweight is a comorbidity to covid. Those aren't death sentences. This is such a tired and crappy argument.


Quote:

I agree that Covid MAY carry a different myocarditis risk for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The risk MAY be higher and it may be lower. I'm trying not to speculate and only speak to facts we know.
Great. I agree with what you've written here. Welcome to the realm of responsible opinion-having. You've gone from "if you are are vaccinated AND get Covid you have increased your risk of myocarditis relative to someone who has not been vaccinated" to "the risk may be higher and it may be lower."
Macarthur
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Zobel said:

A majority of Americans have at least one of the comorbidities which increase risk of death from covid (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure) and something like 40% of adults have at least two. That percentage increases with age.

A comorbidity doesn't kill you. That's why it's not the cause of death. Being diabetic or overweight is a comorbidity to covid. Those aren't death sentences. This is such a tired and crappy argument.


Quote:

I agree that Covid MAY carry a different myocarditis risk for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The risk MAY be higher and it may be lower. I'm trying not to speculate and only speak to facts we know.
Great. I agree with what you've written here. Welcome to the realm of responsible opinion-having. You've gone from "if you are are vaccinated AND get Covid you have increased your risk of myocarditis relative to someone who has not been vaccinated" to "the risk may be higher and it may be lower."

This is one of the most infuriating points that has come out of this, IMO. It's like people that are overweight mean less (that's the implication, I'm sure unintentionally) and that folks with these issues can't live a long life….
chimpanzee
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Zobel said:

I disagree. You're making a mistake by lumping in fraudulent research with research that is later falsified by newer research. There is a material difference between making a good faith effort to achieve the best public health outcomes and misinformation.

You yourself acknowledged the need to separate political influence out.

The problem is you have too much faith in medicine and public health. When they fail, you're incensed. But where did they succeed? What example can you put forward of somewhere that did a good job handling this? From what I see most of what we done was the broadly accepted response to pandemics going back for thirty years. You can't fault people for executing a plan that more or less everyone acknowledges was the right way simply because you have hindsight.

I'm not going to defend the noble lie, but I can understand it. But the noble lie from a public policy perspective is *not* the same topic or issue as whether unfiltered access to these kinds of datasets is on balance a good or bad thing. Keep the lines clear, and I suspect you'll find we agree more than we disagree.

I have zero faith in public health, if you are inferring it based on any of my positions, I have explained them poorly. I'm not incensed that they failed, I'm incensed that they would rather keep failing, lying, and causing more harm than admit that they were wrong.

The Kansas mask study was fraudulent, the CDC's mask mandate analysis was fraudulent, the use of PCR cycles amped to the moon was fraudulent and all were perpetrated by the people that are controlling what you can and can't do in your everyday life. The lie was never noble, that was the best spin they could put on their actions after the fact.

Masking was tried before and completely failed; it was subsequently studied over decades and understood to be pointless. Using PCR testing on large populations (and running with that data) was never done before. Quarantining and testing healthy people was never done before. Shutting down large swaths of the economy was never done before. Closing schools for years was never done before. I am not sure how you see consistency of approach with prior practice or recommendations, "more or less everyone" had no support for doing these things even if they bought into it for whatever reason. The idea that they were acting in informed good faith is not supportable. My guess is that they acted out of political panic in a rush to be seen as "doing something" and have continued to cover their own decisions by suppressing info and trashing those that question them.

Defending the noble lie is cover for hiding the data and demonizing those who disagree with them for good faith reasons. We're talking organized attack campaigns against top people in their fields to avoid debating their concerns and discredit them in broader media. Data that might support their positions is purposefully suppressed.

Any support of vax mandates right now is wholly unsupportable, and they keep right on with the conveniently demonizable "other" for political gain. The text of the Supreme Court's decision upholding the vax mandate on health care workers contains these same provably false assertions because the officials in charge of public health are suppressing facts and the most powerful people in the country believe the lies.
nortex97
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Zobel said:

You can't cite reliable evidence because there isn't any.

You can't make a case against expert opinion when it is convenient (e.g., you can't listen to Fauci) then make the exact same structured argument by appealing to a former Pfizer VP.

The problem is that you have a confirmation bias issue. You accept without inspection ideas that confirm your worldview, and you're extremely suspicious of things that aren't. This is solider mindset in a nutshell. It's difficult, but when you find yourself doing this you should attempt to subject ideas to the same level of inspection, apply the same level of rigor, and be equally skeptical regardless of your prior inclination to believe them or not.

This doesn't mean you have to chunk your priors out the window! It also doesn't mean you can't hope to find one or the other false. But it does expect a higher level of intellectual curiosity and consistency than you're demonstrating here.

You would absolutely not accept the level of evidence you're presenting here to support your position as a rebuttal. When you are met with a request to provide better evidence, you just punt. It's crap.

The letter you linked that says ivermectin is a curative is junk that doesn't even try to present evidence.

The article you just linked is a cautionary tale that doesn't appeal to evidence of risk, instead relying on the fact that there is insufficient (in that person's opinion) demonstrated evidence of efficacy. There's a lot of rhetorical slight of hand with regard to the phrase "no evidence" and you can't shift between the different uses casually in any kind of discussion that you hope to get some value out of.
No, the problem I have is that I am laughing again at this forum, in general, and you specifically. It's not a conspiracy, and Major Murphy is not some partisan imbecile a la O-5 Vindman who was the American people's Ukrainian policy director in his own mind at some point.

Quote:

In the video, Project Veritas identifies the author as Marine Corps Maj. Joseph Murphy, then-Commandant Marine Corps Fellow at DARPA. According to his LinkedIn page, Maj. Murphy is now at the Office of Naval Research.

After the date, the to/from, the subject line, and a list of attachments, the first page of the memo reads:
Quote:

SARS-CoV-2 is an American-created recombinant bat vaccine, or its precursor virus. It was created by an EcoHealth Alliance program at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), as suggested by the reporting surrounding the lab leak hypothesis. The details of this program have been concealed since the pandemic began. These details can be found in the EcoHealth Alliance proposal response to the DARPA PREEMPT program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) HR00118S0017, dated March 2018 a document not yet publicly disclosed.

The contents of the proposed program are extremely detailed. Peter Daszak lays out step-by-step what the organization intends to do by phase and by location. The primary scientists involved, their roles, and their institutions are indicated. The funding plan for the WIV work is its own document.

The reasons why nonpharmaceutical interventions like masks and medical countermeasures like the mRNA vaccines do not work well can be extrapolated from the details. The reasons why the early treatment protocols work as curatives are apparent.

SARS-CoV-2's form as it emerged is likely as a precursor, deliberately virulent, humanized recombinant SARSr-CoV that was to be reverse engineered into a live attenuated SARSr-CoV bat vaccine. Its nature can be determined from analysis of its genome with the context provided by the EcoHealth Alliance proposal. Joining this analysis with US intelligence collections on Wuhan will aid this determination.



https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2022/01/11/new-us-military-report-states-covid-19-was-created-by-a-us-funded-ecohealth-alliance-program-at-wuhan-institute-of-virology-n504679
nortex97
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Macarthur said:

Zobel said:

A majority of Americans have at least one of the comorbidities which increase risk of death from covid (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, high blood pressure) and something like 40% of adults have at least two. That percentage increases with age.

A comorbidity doesn't kill you. That's why it's not the cause of death. Being diabetic or overweight is a comorbidity to covid. Those aren't death sentences. This is such a tired and crappy argument.


Quote:

I agree that Covid MAY carry a different myocarditis risk for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. The risk MAY be higher and it may be lower. I'm trying not to speculate and only speak to facts we know.
Great. I agree with what you've written here. Welcome to the realm of responsible opinion-having. You've gone from "if you are are vaccinated AND get Covid you have increased your risk of myocarditis relative to someone who has not been vaccinated" to "the risk may be higher and it may be lower."

This is one of the most infuriating points that has come out of this, IMO. It's like people that are overweight mean less (that's the implication, I'm sure unintentionally) and that folks with these issues can't live a long life….
It's not about dehumanizing people, but a recognition that people who are morbidly obese, in America, in 2021-2022, probably have…made decisions about how they value their expected longevity/life expectancy, and to punish health, responsible people and kids to 'protect' them from an endemic upper respiratory virus, via mechanisms such as fictitious protection from exposure via cloth masks…is cruel and asinine to other members of society.

To argue otherwise is akin to saying I should morally be part of a nightly watch shift in my neighborhood to help make sure no crack cocaine dealers are selling on the basis of Hunter Biden's history.
Zobel
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When I say they followed the playbook they developed, I mean things like this from 2005.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pdf/professionals/hhspandemicinfluenzaplan.pdf

There are lots of documents you can read like this, and when you do you'll find that most of what we did was outlined in these plans going back decades.

I agree that in hindsight a lot of it was probably useless. We probably didn't have good enough models to guide any of our actions (see this for example https://cspicenter.org/blog/waronscience/have-we-been-thinking-about-the-pandemic-wrong-the-effect-of-population-structure-on-transmission/). We were working off of hypotheses that had never been tested in any real way in the past century (e.g., the effect of masking or large-scale lockdowns). Some of it was just run of the mill "problems with science" like the whole idea behind aerosols vs droplets (read this, for example https://www.wired.com/story/the-teeny-tiny-scientific-screwup-that-helped-covid-kill/). You're reading a lot of intent into it that I don't think is warranted.

You should also be more circumspect about your arguments - this statement "Quarantining and testing healthy people was never done before" is false. The whole idea behind quarantine is for people who may be ill but are not. Mandatory quarantines comes from the practice of keeping sailors under isolation and observation for forty days when they enter a port. That's different than isolation which is for people who are sick. "Shutting down large swaths of the economy was never done before" is also false. Much of this was done during the Spanish Flu pandemic. If you amend it to "in the past century" I'd agree.

I see consistency because I've gone back and looked. We did what we said we were going to do for thirty years. We just never had to try any of the crap before. It is incorrect to say people "had no support for doing these things." There is an entire field of literature and study which attempted to come up with answers to question of "what do we do when the next pandemic comes?" When, not if. I believe you are under-informed here.

Turns out
a) managing a pandemic is hard
b) medicine is hard
c) public policy is always clouded by political opportunism
d) a lot of this stuff is difficult-to-impossible to measure anyway
e) some populations aren't willing or able to engage in general self-sacrifice

The part of your post about willful attack campaigns and personal discrediting is kinda crap. There's been a ton of really good publications showing what I would call "dissenting" data, especially in the larger masks, lockdown, modeling etc. areas (for example, here's a good review on lockdown stuff https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lockdown-effectiveness-much-more). You've probably never heard of most of them, because you don't really pay attention (not a criticism) and because they don't make waves in the media. Loudmouths who make incredible claims, lead campaigns against the government, and generally make waves make headlines. The doctor I linked above who fought hard to correct the misunderstanding in the literature about aerosols vs droplets is perhaps the biggest dissenter of the past three years, and you never heard of her. And she was effective.

I don't agree with a federal vaccine mandate, so I'm not sure why its relevant. Again, this would be more productive if you kept the lines of inquiry clearer. You're all over the map.
Sapper Redux
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Masking works depending on the primary mode of viral transmission. They aren't 100% effective and no one has ever claimed that they are.

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abi9069
Zobel
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AG
I'm gonna ask you some honest questions. Did you read his email? Did you not notice that the cover letter had an inconsistent redaction method (sometimes actual black box redaction, sometimes blanks, sometimes xxxx)? Do you see that this doesn't actually look like an email that was ever sent?

Do you understand that anyone could have written that letter? Set your word template to use courier or download a military letter template from the net and you can recreate that document in a few minutes.

Do you realize that we have no corroboration that Maj Murphy actually wrote it?

Have you considered that there's a difference between the cover email, the letter, and the attached documents? Each has separate claims and separate potential problems and chains of custody.

Upon reading it, do you realize that a lot of it is nonsense? It says the spike protein itself is toxic (this is a misunderstanding of several research papers) and makes stupid claims like the virus was selected to be monoclonal antibody and vaccine resistant. Can you sit for even thirty seconds and think about why this is dumb? What mechanism would you select for to make something resistant to monoclonal antibodies specifically? And vaccines generally?

Did you note that it not only claimed ivermectin was a cure but also hydroxychloroquine and interferon? We have good evidence against both of the latter. Why do you accept the IVM claim on its fase?

Did you notice that it incorrectly conflates hydroxychloroquine with chloroquine phosphate? They're different drugs.

And for Pete's sake did it occur to you that even if this was written by who it claims to be, it could still be complete bull***** Why should we listen to this guy without any corroborating evidence?
 
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