I'm guessing Doomsday is going to be under 1.5 billion internationally….and that's bad with what the budget for this is going to be….

Endgames budget was reportedly around 350-400 million depending on where you check. I'm thinking it was 400 million before UK tax breaks (25%) which would've made it 300 million afterwards…and was also reported it was around 200 million marketing which meant Endgame needed to do 1 billion internationally to break even….and it crushed that with I think nearly 3 billion internationally….

Now….

Look at the cast for Doomsday and compare that to the cast for Endgame. Look at how costs have shot up since Endgame. And consider the idea that Marvel is having to go "all-in" with how these films and shows have been declining (generally speaking) since Endgame.

I think it's very plausible that the budget for Doomsday (prior to tax breaks) is going to be over 500 million not including marketing. When you factor in a 25% discount and estimated same marketing costs as Endgame of 200 million that's a total production cost of 575 million I feel as a minimum number.

That means this sucker needs to do around 1.2 billion globally at a minimum. I think it can do that. But I don't think it's going to top 1.5 billion.

But again, I don't think Marvel cares how much money this movie makes. I truly feel they are just hoping this thing breaks even cause I think they're gonna end up spending even more than the numbers I posted. I think they are counting on this movie being huge…really hyping the fan base back up again…and hoping that carries into the next round of films to where these things can possibly go back to being money printing machines.

TLDR: gonna do less than 1.5 billion globally but as long as it's over 1.2 billion the mouse is happy.

FL_Ag1998 said:

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Realistically, what is the total worldwide gross $$$ expectation for Avengers: Doomsday from you resident F13 box office experts? And I clarify worldwide because the international box office has made up the majority of total revenue for most of the MCU films. Sooo, how still invested is the world in the MCU and comic book movies?

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That's a big part of the problem….

Last year we saw this:

Cap 4 total revenue was 52% international
Thunderbolts total revenue was 50% international

(These two above were also a lot lower in total revenue compared to the others below)

Superman total revenue was 43% international
FF total revenue was 47% international

These were all considered low performing based on their budgets….

Now look at some of the really high hitters for the MCU in the past:

No Way Home 58% international
Infinity Was 67% international
Endgame 69% international
Both Dr Strange movies 66% and 57% international

And there's a slew of others….

Interestingly the only ones that were big financial success that didn't follow this formula was both Black Panther movies and Deadpool 3….

Spider-Man 4 is going to be a huge measuring stick for what's coming for the MCU regarding $$$$$ ….and I really want Spidey 4 and Doomsday to be awesome!!!

Simon Williams and Trevor Slattery will return for Marvel Television's #WonderMan Season 2, co-created by Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Guest, coming to @DisneyPlus. pic.twitter.com/XnOBYrYHaA

— Marvel Studios (@MarvelStudios) March 23, 2026

So the plan, at least for now, seems to be that Doomsday isn't budging, and is now basically going all "Who needs IMAX anyway?"

Disney is planning to push hard for ‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’ to be shown in premium theater formats such as Dolby, D-Box and 4DX.

They also plan to screen the film in AMC’s newest ‘XL’ format, designed to showcase blockbusters on larger, expanded screens.

(via… pic.twitter.com/gVQjRmRcyO

— Cosmic Marvel (@cosmic_marvel) March 23, 2026

Marvel isn’t worried about ‘AVENGERS: DOOMSDAY’ not being in IMAX theaters and here’s why you shouldn’t either.

Dolby is just better image and audio quality. If you want that OLED brightness and color like on an iPhone, you’ll only get it in Dolby Cinema.

Dolby Cinema screens… pic.twitter.com/qX2m4Jn1Zl

— Doom’s Servant (@lakersspammer) March 23, 2026

Just locally in Houston, how many screens are Dolby vs IMAX? I am guessing the vast majority are Dolby given my inability to see any movie on an IMAX screen without having to make a drive to a different part of town? Last one I saw on an IMAX screen was Infinity War, I believe that was a theater in Tomball. I don't typically want to leave my immediate area to see a movie. I'm expecting that Doomsday will do just fine without IMAX although I acknowledge other cities likely have a larger percentage of such screens.

All I know is that IMAX can account for over 20% of a major blockbuster's domestic box office, and Doomsday is as major as it gets. I'm sure it'll still do crazy good numbers in the long run, but sacrificing 20% of your potential gross + however much Dune: Part Three cuts into all other theaters/formats as well, just seems like such a needless self-own.

I guess I better book a babysitter now!

Btw, that weekend is ALSO the first round of the college football playoff. Imagine Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Part Three, and the Aggies all playing the same weekend. Throw in Christmas travel and I get overwhelmed just thinking about it.

TCTTS said:

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All I know is that IMAX can account for over 20% of a major blockbuster's domestic box office, and Doomsday is as major as it gets. I'm sure it'll still do crazy good numbers in the long run, but sacrificing 20% of your potential gross + however much Dune: Part Three cuts into all other theaters/formats as well, just seems like such a needless self-own.

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First of all, I 100% agree that Marvel/Disney really screwed the pooch here, but perhaps it really isn't the huge loss one might think because the Marvel movies haven't really done tremendous at the Imax anyways.

Does that math about losing 20% make sense? Because that's saying the people who would have gone to see it at the IMAX wouldn't choose another format to see it at all. That seems unlikely. It'll cut the gross because they'll have to go someplace that sells the tickets for less $ and a less impressive format.

It looks like Oppenheimer (21%), Dune 2(20-22%), and Interstellar (19%) are the only three to get around 20%.

Endgame was "only" 7.7% - $214.5 million out of $2.7 billion. Infinity War was at 7.0%.

All great points. So not 20%, but let's say the total difference between whatever non-IMAX tickets cost vs the cost of IMAX tickets. Whatever percentage that ends up equaling, plus all the Dune: Part Three non-IMAX tickets sold that cut into the Avengers: Doomsday non-IMAX tickets that would have been sold. Either way, it's a healthy chunk, at least over the first two or three weekends, that Disney is leaving on the table. Granted, there will be no other blockbuster competition until March 2027, so audiences will have plenty of time to see both movies. Still, it's crazy that it's coming to this, that we have to make a choice as to which one we see first (or at all opening weekend), and that, regardless, we won't be able to watch a freaking Avengers movie, of all movies, in IMAX.

I think they are hoping Dun3sday will be a thing like Barbenheimer was.

But I do think that first weekend is going to suffer for Marvel. I know no one that will pick seeing Doomsday over Dune 3, and the odds that both movies are approaching or over three hours in runtime is high. No way I get to two three-hour-movies in a weekend in December.

Honestly probably won't get to Doomsday until after Christmas.

What does Comfort mean in this chart?

Doomsday should move up to the week before Thanksgiving slot that allowed Wicked to crush in '24 and '25 by having a giant opening weekend and then a giant Thanksigivng weekend and cruise into the winter months.

Sunrise on the Reaping comes out around then, but it would crush that

The new Narnia movie, from Greta Gerwig (director of Barbie), is releasing then as well, Thanksgiving week, and it already has an exclusive two-week IMAX run. It's going to be massive. So Doomsday would have to compete with both Hunger Games and Narnia, and even I'd choose going against Dune over that combo.

Marvel really has screwed themselves. There's absolutely no where for them to go, unless they opt for a completely unconventional date in February or something.

YouBet said:

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What does Comfort mean in this chart?

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Recliners, which true IMAX theaters typically don't have.

veryfuller said:

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I think they are hoping Dun3sday will be a thing like Barbenheimer was.

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Barbenheimer worked because it was organically viral at first, wholly original, and those two movies were complete opposites in every way. There was an irony factor at play. Dunesday will likely catch on, and will make for an unprecedented/historical weekend, but it won't have that same, magic kitschy/irony factor. Especially considering both movies are basically the same audience.

Yeah I'd still say their best bet is to stay where they are…not that it's an amazing place to be in but all other options for a release date change suck even worse.

Considering the holidays and how long these films can hold out releasing between Thanksgiving and New Years I'd say it's in the best place it can be all things considered…

TCTTS said:

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The new Narnia movie, from Greta Gerwig (director of Barbie), is releasing then as well, Thanksgiving week, and it already has an exclusive two-week IMAX run. It's going to be massive. So Doomsday would have to compete with both Hunger Games and Narnia, and even I'd choose going against Dune over that combo.

Marvel really has screwed themselves. There's absolutely no where for them to go, unless they opt for a completely unconventional date in February or something.

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That is an extremely bizarre combo of director and film - the Internet says they're doing the Magician's Nephew which is an extremely hardcore Christian allegory complete with Aslan creating Narnia and the witch jumping the fence in the "Garden of Eden" to eat the fruit of the tree of wisdom.

The article I read says it's exclusively in Imax for a month and then straight to Netflix, so it definitely doesn't solve the Imax problem, but no way that the Magician's Nephew is doing anything next to Doomsday.

TCTTS said:

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YouBet said:

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What does Comfort mean in this chart?

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Recliners, which true IMAX theaters typically don't have.

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My spoiled ass children were horrified they couldn't put their feet up at Project Hail Mary yesterday.

You're probably right. Then, I guess after three weeks, Disney/Marvel can advertise a whole new "now in IMAX" campaign or whatever. Otherwise, there's a new Ice Age movie and a new Judd Apatow movie both the first weekend of February, but that's really it in terms of "competition" until March.

Personally speaking it's just going to be so weird to do Dune, along with college football (with or without the Aggies) that weekend, likely travel that weekend as well, then not even see Doomsday until the next week. Then again, Doomsday spoilers are going to be impossible to avoid, so maybe it's either Dune or Doomsday Thursday night, the other Friday afternoon, then college football/travel the rest of the weekend. All I know is the Aggies either need to not make the playoff or get a first-round bye, because attending a game that weekend (which I would definitely do) would royally screw everything up.

CharleyKerfeld said:

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TCTTS said:

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The new Narnia movie, from Greta Gerwig (director of Barbie), is releasing then as well, Thanksgiving week, and it already has an exclusive two-week IMAX run. It's going to be massive. So Doomsday would have to compete with both Hunger Games and Narnia, and even I'd choose going against Dune over that combo.

Marvel really has screwed themselves. There's absolutely no where for them to go, unless they opt for a completely unconventional date in February or something.

---

That is an extremely bizarre combo of director and film - the Internet says they're doing the Magician's Nephew which is an extremely hardcore Christian allegory complete with Aslan creating Narnia and the witch jumping the fence in the "Garden of Eden" to eat the fruit of the tree of wisdom.

The article I read says it's exclusively in Imax for a month and then straight to Netflix, so it definitely doesn't solve the Imax problem, but no way that the Magician's Nephew is doing anything next to Doomsday.

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Yeah, color me wildly skeptical that Gerwig is going to do right by that film, but we can discuss that on the Narnia thread when it's created.

Thanks for that idea, re Thursday/Friday. I had been thinking I would just start my Christmas PTO a day early and spend the day at the theater.

As for the Aggies, I certainly hope they make it again, but I am not going to count on it. I went to the Miami game, which let me meet up with my son who lives 5 hours from me. That time with him that day made it a truly special day for me despite the outcome on the field. Would I go to a playoff game again this year? Maybe, but at this point I am leaning no.

We can see two movies in a weekend. We don't have to choose one.

We could even see them both on the same day! Twice each!!!

maroon barchetta said:

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We can see two movies in a weekend. We don't have to choose one.

We could even see them both on the same day! Twice each!!!

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Back in Old Army, I saw Dodgeball and Anchorman on the same day in 2004. Everything has been downhill since.

Just for some fun….care to take guesses on what the official film run time will be?

Infinity war was 2 hr 29 min
Endgame was 3 hr 2 min

I'm guessing it'll be inbetween at 2 hr 45 minutes and if so secret wars will surpass endgame and be the longest MCU film to date

I think both Dune and Doomsday will each be 2h 45m+. One is obviously the culmination of a trilogy (that's seemingly combining the contents of two books + original ideas into one movie), while the other is stuffed with more characters than I've seen in maybe any movie ever.

https://instagr.am/p/DWRMx6Bjar_

maroon barchetta said:

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We can see two movies in a weekend. We don't have to choose one.

We could even see them both on the same day! Twice each!!!

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Rich.

I didn't say you had to buy two tickets.

maroon barchetta said:

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I didn't say you had to buy two tickets.

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Excellent point. I saw Doc Hollywood, Terminator 2, and the Naked Gun 2-1/2 all on the same day for the price of one "magic" ticket and lax theater security.

When the price of tickets were $2?

CharleyKerfeld said:

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maroon barchetta said:

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I didn't say you had to buy two tickets.

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Excellent point. I saw Doc Hollywood, Terminator 2, and the Naked Gun 2-1/2 all on the same day for the price of one "magic" ticket and lax theater security.

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now they check your phone for those tickets….

I think at this point the whole Dunesday situation is pure ego.

Disney thought they could get Dune to move. Dune dug in their heels, and now Disney loses face if they blink.

Someone at Disney doesn't want to look weak and thus they refuse to budge, even if it means losing out on millions due to the IMAX premium.

Dr. Watr said:

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When the price of tickets were $2?

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If we're talking about 1980, probably about $2. A decade later they were triple that.

Disney making a poor decision that will affect them financially is brand new information!