Farmer1906 said:

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TCTTS said:

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Also, let's say Kenobi gets a Christmas 2020 release date. That means they wouldn't even have to start filming until around summer 2019, a year and a half from now. Heck, I bet we don't even hear anything official on this movie until this summer.

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So why does Ewan look like Obi if filming would be until summer of '19?

Cameo in Solo?

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Because he's an actor? And a different job is requiring a beard?

Episode IX is filming this summer for a late 2019 release. Why would Kenobi film this year as well, especially considering Disney/Lucasfilm is committed to releasing only one Star Wars movie per year?

Granted, Kenobi could technically release in May 2020 as opposed to December 2020, and in that case they would likely start filming in early 2019 as opposed to summer 2019, but either way I would bet money they're not filming it this year, anywhere near production of their huge saga finale. All focus is going to be on that movie first.

TCTTS said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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TCTTS said:

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Also, let's say Kenobi gets a Christmas 2020 release date. That means they wouldn't even have to start filming until around summer 2019, a year and a half from now. Heck, I bet we don't even hear anything official on this movie until this summer.

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So why does Ewan look like Obi if filming would be until summer of '19?

Cameo in Solo?

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Because he's an actor? And a different job is requiring a beard?

Episode IX is filming this summer for a late 2019 release. Why would Kenobi film this year as well, especially considering Disney/Lucasfilm is committed to releasing only one Star Wars movie per year?

Granted, Kenobi could technically release in May 2020 as opposed to December 2020, and in that case they would likely start filming in early 2019 as opposed to summer 2019, but either way I would bet money they're not filming it this year, anywhere near production of their huge saga finale. All focus is going to be on that movie first.

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I am not saying it should film earlier or should release earlier. I am using what you said to make a point that maybe, just maybe, Obi has a very small role in Solo.

We shall see. I seriously doubt it, though.

Do you think Christopher Robin looks like Obi when he grows up?

Maybe? I have no idea.

TCTTS said:

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Maybe? I have no idea.

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Looks like he shaved that beard he was sporting a few days ago.

Vader has to be the hunter.

New update to Star Wars mobile game Galaxy of Heroes:



"valiant heroes"

seriously

Flashdiaz said:

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bangobango said:

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TCTTS said:

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Seriously, though, this feels a bit like a the-Russian-is-bleeding type moment. Jumanji went up against TLJ, proved that other blockbusters can compete with Star Wars, and now they're doing the exact same thing again. Star Wars simply isn't the invincible monster it used to be.

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Goes with what I have been saying when everyone trots out box office returns for TLJ to say its a small minority who didnt like this movie. It's not a small minority. It is being covered for unlike any movie I've ever seen. And the long term fallout of this will not be realized until subsequent releases.

I have faith JJ Abrams will pull this out and the word of mouth will help with ticket sales, but unless they explicitly come out and say prior to the premier that they've heard the complaints and they're addressing them in this movie, then the opening weekend on episode IX will disappoint greatly.

The Rian Johnson trilogy will bomb (for star wars) unless the word of mouth saves it. Lot of people will refuse to go see that until they hear from others whether it's worth it or not.

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I actually think Rian Johnson will do well with a trilogy with new characters. The story will have an end in mind with the movies to support the idea.

A major problem many have with TLJ is how disjointed it is from the OT and even with TFA due to no skeletal structure of episodes 7-9.

Another positive is the fact JJ pitched his ep9 movie right after TLJ and the criticisms started coming out. it almost had a 'relax Disney, I have a story to fix it' vibe to it.

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That's why I mentioned word of mouth. If he puts out a good product, then people will go see it, but there are going to be a LOT of wait and sees with that trilogy.

What the hell?

fig96 said:

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Quote:

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it. Lot of people will refuse to go see that until they hear from others whether it's worth it or not.

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I think you grossly overestimate people "refusing" to go see it.

Episode IX will have a massive opening weekend. The new trilogy will have a massive opening weekend.

People will go see them because they're Star Wars movies.

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bet you episode 9 drops below TLJ.

Willing to bet a Bantha poodoo slap.

SeattleAgJr said:

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fig96 said:

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Quote:

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it. Lot of people will refuse to go see that until they hear from others whether it's worth it or not.

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I think you grossly overestimate people "refusing" to go see it.

Episode IX will have a massive opening weekend. The new trilogy will have a massive opening weekend.

People will go see them because they're Star Wars movies.

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bet you episode 9 drops below TLJ.

Willing to bet a Bantha poodoo slap.

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I think it most likely will simply due to oversaturation, the hype just isn't as high. But it'll still be huge, and could surpass TLJ overall with good word of mouth.

Remember there will be a longer lag between movies for Episode IX than there was for TLJ. 18 months instead of only a year.

SeattleAgJr said:

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fig96 said:

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Quote:

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it. Lot of people will refuse to go see that until they hear from others whether it's worth it or not.

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I think you grossly overestimate people "refusing" to go see it.

Episode IX will have a massive opening weekend. The new trilogy will have a massive opening weekend.

People will go see them because they're Star Wars movies.

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bet you episode 9 drops below TLJ.

Willing to bet a Bantha poodoo slap.

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Pretty sure there was also a drop from ESB and ROTJ

jokershady said:

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SeattleAgJr said:

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fig96 said:

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Quote:

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it. Lot of people will refuse to go see that until they hear from others whether it's worth it or not.

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I think you grossly overestimate people "refusing" to go see it.

Episode IX will have a massive opening weekend. The new trilogy will have a massive opening weekend.

People will go see them because they're Star Wars movies.

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bet you episode 9 drops below TLJ.

Willing to bet a Bantha poodoo slap.

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Pretty sure there was also a drop from ESB and ROTJ

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actually....no there was not. well not sure what you mean - they were both well below SW... but RotJ exceeded ESB which is kinda amazing. tickets prices only accounts for some of that.


on original BO releases (not re-releases):

SW: $307M
ESB: $209M
RotJ: $252M

with average tickets prices of 2.23 2.69 and 3.15 respectively the number of tickets sold was:

SW: 137.6M
ESB: 77.7M
RotJ: 80M

just out of curiosity.


TFA: $936M = 111M tickets
TLJ $606M = 67.55M tickets
IX: TBD

and RO: $532M = 61.8M tickets


So many many FEWER people have seen the last 3 SW movies than the original three. Domestic BO.

And that's despite huge population growth. Obviously cable, DVD/BR, streaming and pirating affects that.

But thats pretty interesting.

And the prequels followed a similar trajectory - huge 1st movie, 2nd movie was lowest, third movie rebounded some.

TPM: $431M = 84.8M tickets
AotC: $302 = 52M tickets
RotS: $381M = 62M tickets

Based on that my early projection for IX is $750M domestic and $1.7B worldwide.

Nevermind, you meant overall.

Since we're on the topic of BO, might as well finish out my chart. I doubt it climbs much more from here, maybe another $5-10 M at most. Should finish right below Avengers.

Brian Earl Spilner said:

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Nevermind, you meant overall.

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Kind of yes. BOth overall and comparable movies.

So fewer saw TFA then saw SW.
and fewer saw TLJ then saw ESB.

Solo apparently getting renamed for Chinese market.

Dropping the Star Wars moniker as it is seen as a hindrance to "selling" the movie there.

new title is "Ranger Solo" or

Confirmation now that there will be no Solo trailer during the Super Bowl, which is fairly shocking. At this point, I'm assuming this means Disney/Lucasfilm is just going to hold it 'til Black Panther the week of February 16th. So I would say to start expecting an online debut two weeks from this Monday, at the very earliest, unless they release it online for some random reason sooner than that, but I don't expect them to. If, in fact, our very first looks is with Black Panther, that'll be just three months and two weeks before the movie itself debuts in theaters. Never seen anything like this...

Isn't Deadpool2 debuting its trailer in front of Black Panther as well?

Flashdiaz said:

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Isn't Deadpool2 debuting its trailer in front of Black Panther as well?

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yes

I think Solo and Ep IX will be a lot more telling as far as how worried they should be.

If Solo is a bomb, and then IX falls below TLJ, then it's definitely a downward trend that they'll be hard-pressed to reverse.

Agreed. I doubt Solo bombs, but unless it's somehow flat out amazing, it will likely be the biggest under performer so far. That said, I think the year-and-a-half off from it to Episode IX will help a lot. I already have SW fatigue, but that gap, along with the return of JJ and a potential "end of the Skywalker saga" marketing push will do wonders for Episode IX's box office. I can't remember the exact quote, but I think it was Abrams who said that IX is not just the end of this trilogy, but of all the saga films. If they really capitalize on that angle both in the marketing and in the story, I could see fans getting super excited again and the movie doing better than TLJ.

So how do we go about blaming Rian Johnson and TLJ for Star Wars Battlefront II being on pace to sell a couple mission copies less that its predecessor?

On a serious note, as has been brought up in this forum, the box office has been underperforming all year industry wide. How much of that played into TLJ falling short of expectations and will play into the Solo box office numbers?