Who: No. 13 Mississippi State Bulldogs (38-14, 15-12 in SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park - Bryan-College Station, TX
When:
Thursday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Friday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 11 a.m. CT (SEC Network)
Pitching matchups
Thursday: LHP Ethan Darden (4-1, 3.33 ERA) vs. LHP Tomas Valincius (8-2, 2.52 ERA)
Friday: TBA vs. RHP Duke Stone (6-1, 4.65 ERA)
Saturday: TBA vs. TBA
Scouting Mississippi State
Brian O’Connor has wasted no time in getting StarkVegas back near the center of the college baseball universe. After winning a national championship at Virginia and turning the Hoos into Omaha mainstays, the 55-year-old has the Bulldogs fighting to host a regional for the first time since Mississippi State’s title-winning season in 2021...all of this in his first season in Starkville. Sitting at 15-12 in conference entering the final weekend of the year, a series victory would almost assuredly secure postseason baseball at one of college baseball’s crown jewels in Dudy Noble.
Away from the SEC’s largest ballpark, Mississippi State is 13-6 overally, including a 9-5 record in true road games. Like Texas A&M, the Bulldogs have also dropped back-to-back series, falling in Austin to begin May before losing a home series to Auburn a week ago. Entering this weekend in a three-team logjam for sixth place in the SEC, State would need to take the series at A&M and get some help to ultimately secure a coveted double-bye at the conference tournament next week.
Of course, there is plenty more to play for as O’Connor & Co. are likely more focused on cementing their hosting status before they get to Hoover.
It’s as talented a roster as any in the league, but the Bulldogs are led by third baseman Ace Reese, who happens to be MLB.com’s No. 28 draft-eligible prospect entering July’s selection process. A transfer from Houston and a native of Canton, Reese is enjoying an All-American season that has him pacing the club in OPS (1.133), home runs (18) and RBI (63). The left-handed power bat is as big a superstar as you’ll find in the SEC, and while his average dips below .270 in conference, Reese is still slugging over .600 with 10 homers in 27 league contests.
Graduate student centerfielder Bryce Chance actually paces State in average at .371 to lead a group of six qualifiers above .300. Behind him, Reese (.335), Noah Sullivan (.330), Gehrig Frei (.326), Jacob Parker (.318) and Reed Stallman (.311) all figure to be tough outs. Beyond Reese, only Parker and Stallman own OPSs over 1.000, and they’re actually tied for second on the team with 11 home runs. When it comes to running, Chance leads the way with 12 stolen bases, and Sullivan is the only other Bulldog in double digits at 10.
Collectively, it’s an offensive unit among the nation’s top 15 in average (.313, 14th), doubles (117, 11th), hits (554, 15th), home runs (91, 15th) and slugging (.538, ninth).
On the mound, Mississippi State has one of the best tone-setters in the conference taking the ball on Thursday evening. Left-hander Tomas Valincius has a sub-1.00 WHIP at 0.99, and in his nine SEC starts, it’s actually a better 0.94. Across his 54.1 innings vs. league offenses, the southpaw has struck out 79 while walking just 10 and holding opponents to a .202 average. That’s a 13.14 K/9 average, which certainly does not bode well for an Aggie lineup that struck out 41 times in the Magnolia State a week ago. An elite strike-thrower with elite strike-out stuff, Valincius is nearing the end of an All-SEC campaign, and one more sparkling outing could earn him first-team honors.
However, Duke Stone has been much less dominant. The right-hander will go on Friday night, and in conference, his ERA balloons further from 4.65 to 5.28 with his WHIP moving from 1.44 to 1.74. SEC opponents are hitting .301 against him, which points to possible success for A&M in the middle game. Further, O’Connor has left Saturday’s season-finale as “TBA,” but State is a respectable 4-5 on getaway day without having a defined Sunday starter.
Out of the bullpen, right-handers Ben Davis and Maddox Webb are the most reliable arms with five and three saves in 19 and 22 appearances, respectively. Left-hander Dane Burns owns a respectable 2.61 ERA and 1.31 WHIP across 20.2 innings in his 24 relief stints, and RHP Jack Gleason has provided some depth with 24.1 innings in 21 appearances. Freshman lefty Maddox Miller has a 2.28 ERA with 39 strikeouts in his 23.2 innings, but that ERA drops to 1.13 in his six relief outings vs. SEC foes.
| Hitting | Avg. | Runs/Game | Slugging % | On-Base % | K/Game |
| Aggies | .304 | 9.14 | .574 | .424 | 8.14 |
| Bulldogs | .313 | 8.42 | .538 | .412 | 8.25 |
| Pitching | ERA | WHIP | BB/Game | Opp. Avg. | K/Game | Fielding % |
| Aggies | 4.85 | 1.36 | 2.69 | .265 | 8.51 | .980 |
| Bulldogs | 4.04 | 1.27 | 3.42 | .232 | 11.17 | .977 |
Texas A&M storylines to watch
Wednesday’s news regarding Aiden Sims didn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence for a club that has been bitten time and again by the injury bug over the last three weeks.
First, it was Chris Hacopian colliding with Jorian Wilson at Florida, as the second baseman has been in a DH-only role since. Then, Nico Partida slipped while fielding a ground ball against Auburn, and a hamstring pull has kept him out of commission for five straight games now. Last Friday, Boston Kellner took a fastball to the face and missed the doubleheader at Ole Miss with an orbital fracture.
While a true diagnosis on Sims is still unknown beyond Michael Earley’s somewhat alarming usage of “tight” and “rest,” the right-hander’s absence will most certainly be felt, especially when you factor that the above injuries mean that just three everyday position players (Bear Harrison, Caden Sorrell and Wilson) are currently manning their respective natural positions.
The biggest question facing Earley and Jason Kelly is how they cover 27 innings on the mound. As far as starting pitching goes, all we know is that southpaw Ethan Darden will open the series on Thursday night, six days after his first start as an Aggie in which he allowed two runs on two hits in just two innings in Oxford. More length will certainly be required of Darden, and how deep he takes this series-opening outing will determine when Shane Sdao and Weston Moss throw. In an ideal scenario, Darden doubling his start, getting a lead from a still-potent offense and another stout relief appearance from Sdao seems to be a winning formula under the Thursday lights. Such a combo would push Moss to Friday night with a fresh Gavin Lyons and Clayton Freshcorn behind him.
Of course, “ideal” is an antonym for A&M’s last three weeks, which means it’ll be all-hands-on-deck from the pitching staff, and more of the same will be required from Hunter Bond, along with some standout showings from the likes of Grant Cunningham, Juan Vargas, Cooper Powell, Hunter Vincent and others, whenever their number is called.
The pitching predicament certainly puts more onus on the offense.
Still among the nation’s elite, the Aggie bats will likely have to carry the Maroon & White inside the hitter-friendly confines of Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park. It’s going to feel like mid-May in Aggieland with a heat index in the 90s and a south wind carrying baseballs out of the ballpark. Indeed, it’ll be perfect weather conditions for an offense that is already among the program’s top three in home runs in a single season (108 ranks behind 2024’s 136 and 1999’s 128).
The focus will always be on a three-headed monster of future first-rounders in Gavin Grahovac, Sorrell and the one-legged Hacopian.
A standout at both corner infield spots, Grahovac would have a better case for SEC Player of the Year if Georgia’s Daniel Jackson wasn’t on triple-crown watch. After a quiet weekend in which he only accumulated three hits at Ole Miss, Grahovac’s SEC-only numbers included a .349 average, 1.164 OPS and 11 home runs in 26 games to go along with season-long totals of 70 hits, 15 doubles, 17 homers and a team-leading 68 RBI. Atop the lineup, he is the straw that stirs the potent drink, regardless of whether he’s playing first or third.
Sorrell has shown signs of breaking out of one of his slower spurts with four hits, including his club-best 22nd homer, against the Rebels. An important left-handed bat, the star centerfielder could cement his All-American candidacy with a strong final week of the regular season as he’s hitting .340 overall and .310 in confernce with an SEC-only OPS of 1.028. Meanwhile, Hacopian has homered three times in his last four games, as the swing shows minimal signs that he’s playing through a lower-leg issue. In a year dampened by injury adversity, the Maryland native is approaching those .300 and 1.000 benchmarks in average and OPS at .296 and .923, respectively.
Beyond the big three, Bear Harrison has been the biggest bat. Another All-SEC candidate at catcher, he’s an on-base machine with a 1.133 OPS and 11 homers. More will be expected from Jake Duer as he’ll be honored at some point this weekend on Senior Day. Just 2-for-23 in his last six SEC games, the left-handed professional hitter must produce, especially if A&M is willing to give up elite defense in left field to keep Duer’s bat in the lineup.
And then there’s the Johnny-come-lately exploits of Ben Royo. His offensive heroics in Oxford helped the Ags hold serve on the road, but more production from him toward the bottom of the lineup would surely bolster this unit, even if it’s not a 7-for-7 day with three homers that saw him reach base in all eight of his plate appearances. His ability to move the baseball as opposed to striking out (another tangent we could go down a rabbit hole on) is a welcomed, necessary part of the offensive machine Earley & Co. will be relying on against Mississippi State.
What’s at stake this weekend
There’s still plenty of hope that we’ll be back together at Blue Bell Park two weeks from now for another Bryan-College Station Regional. It might even feel likely despite the injury issues and back-to-back series losses.
But what about the weekend after that?
Both of these clubs — at No. 10 and No. 11, respectively, in the latest RPI rankings — are very much alive in the hosting conversation.
The easiest path to staying in the top-eight discussion is winning your final home series of the season. By taking two of three, A&M would head to Hoover with a minimum of 18 conference victories. A year ago, the SEC had six of the top eight, and five of those finished with at least 18 league wins.
That’s just to illustrate that there’s precedent on A&M’s side if they get to 18, but what if the Ags earn the No. 2 seed at next week’s SEC Tournament? Finishing second in the nation’s best college baseball league has to count for something.
A&M begins the weekend tied with Texas for second place in the SEC, clinging to a double bye in Hoover by half a game ahead of Auburn and Alabama, so get ready to scoreboard watch games on The Plains (Tigers vs. Georgia), Austin (Longhorns vs. Missouri) and Tuscaloosa (Tide vs. Ole Miss).
Again, the easiest path is simply handling your business by playing clean, fundamental baseball as the Aggies did throughout April.
Of course, it’s easier said than done, but taking the easiest path this weekend could ensure the Aggies have their easiest path possible in the NCAA Tournament.
