Series Preview: A&M puts No. 1 ranking on the line in Tuscaloosa

Who: No. 18 Alabama Crimson Tide (24-13, 6-9 SEC)
Where: Sewell-Thomas Stadium – Tuscaloosa, Alabama
When:

Thursday: 6 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
Friday: 6 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 2 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching Matchups

Thursday: LHP Ryan Prager (7-0, 1.98 ERA) vs. LHP Greg Farone (3-1, 3.10 ERA)
Friday: RHP Tanner Jones (3-1, 3.86 ERA) vs. RHP Ben Hess (3-3, 6.41 ERA)
Saturday: LHP Justin Lamkin (2-1, 4.19 ERA) vs. LHP Zane Adams (3-2, 3.71 ERA)

Scouting Alabama

The Tide is high as the Aggies head to Tuscaloosa with a newly minted No. 1 on their backs. If you think that is going to intimidate this Alabama team, you didn’t read last weekend’s SEC baseball headlines. The Crimson Tide welcomed then-No. 1 Arkansas to town, sent the Hogs home with a series loss and, in the process, handed A&M the No. 1 baton — just in time to host the Aggies at the friendly confines of Sewell-Thomas Stadium. This is nothing new for the boys from Alabama, who climbed to No. 18 in the nation after taking a pair last weekend. In fact, the Tide also held their home turf earlier in the season with a home series win over No. 4 Tennessee and No. 20 South Carolina.

Overall, the Crimson Tide is very tough at home with an 18-5 record overall and a 6-3 mark in SEC play. They are winless in SEC action on the road at 0-6, so the 6-9 SEC record is deceiving when these two teams meet for a three-game set in T-Town.

Kelly Cothern, TexAgs

Against conference opponents, Ryan Prager is 3-0 with a 3.76 ERA in 26.1 innings pitched. That includes last week’s complete-game shutout vs. Vanderbilt.

Comparing SEC statistics, the Aggies have the advantage across the board both at the plate and on the mound.

A&M’s offense is playing at an elite level, averaging 7.9 runs per game against quality conference pitching compared to Alabama’s 4.7. A&M dominates in the power categories with a 33-18 lead in home runs as well as holding the upper hand in slugging percentage (A&M - .544, ALA - .444).

Despite A&M’s offensive statistical edge, Alabama is capable at the plate.

The top of the batting order is very dangerous, with Gage Miller (.339 avg.), Ian Petrutz (.379), Kade Snell (.375) and Will Hodo (.321) all sporting healthy OPS marks over 1.000. The quartet has combined for 13 homers and 38 RBI in 15 SEC games. But there is good news for A&M pitching. The bottom third of the Alabama batting order has been pedestrian in conference action, with TJ McCants struggling at the plate (.234) along with Mac Guscette (.175) and Evan Sleight (.172). That’s where A&M’s deep lineup has the advantage, along with elite power at the top of the order. There’s no spot in the Aggie lineup where an opposing pitcher can get comfortable, and any A&M hitter can leave the yard at a moment’s notice. That can mentally wear down the opponent on the mound.

The Alabama pitching staff has been up and down most of the season, but they certainly made their presence known in the Arkansas series, where the Tide allowed only eight runs throughout the series. Freshman Zane Adams had the best appearance of his collegiate career, throwing eight scoreless innings and walking just one batter in a 5-0 series clincher on Sunday. Adams barely made it out of the second inning the previous week in a 10-1 loss to Kentucky, so the freshman is still inconsistent. Righty Greg Farone (1-1,3.96 ERA) will get the start on Thursday against Ryan Prager in what should be a tight battle. The Aggies will have a big edge in Friday’s match-up against lefty Ben Hess, who is off the rails in SEC play with a 0-3 mark and a bloated 9.27 ERA. He’ll be facing Tanner Jones, who is coming off his best outing of the year against Vanderbilt.

Alabama’s weakness is in the bullpen, with no established closers or go-to arms to steady the ship or shut down a late-inning rally. The staff has registered just one save in SEC play. Braylon Myers (3.24 ERA) is one of the few weekend relievers in the bullpen with an ERA under 6.00. That’s not good with one of the best power-hitting teams in the nation coming to town. The Crimson Tide is a pretty good defensive ball club with a .973 fielding percentage.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

Sure, Alabama's pitching limited No. 1 Arkansas to eight runs last weekend, but let’s be clear: the Razorback offense is tepid and doesn’t come close to matching the explosiveness of the Aggies.

The top of the order is so power-hungry, yet the trio is also patient at the plate and willing to draw walks. It’s amazing that true freshman Gavin Grahovac and junior transfer Braden Montgomery have combined for 19 home runs in 15 SEC games. The duo surpasses Alabama’s team total of 18. Those two, along with Jace LaViolette, gut-punched Vanderbilt pitching in the open frame of the first two games to essentially grab control of the series before the Commodores could get settled in for the weekend. If the power trio can do more early inning damage, that’s a bad sign for the Crimson Tide with a team ERA of 6.23 and limited depth in the bullpen.

Another storyline to watch is the offensive production of Travis Chestnut. After missing some time with a minor injury, Chestnut got another shot at the starting second base job, and he’s making the most of it. He has only registered 10 official plate appearances in SEC play so far, but he’s stroking the ball at a .400 clip, and he’s flexing some power with a slugging percentage of .800 and an OPS of 1.300. I don’t expect those stratospheric numbers to continue over time, but getting some consistent punch in the nine-hole before the order turns back over to Grahovac, LaViolette and Montgomery will pay huge dividends the rest of the season.

Kelii Horvath, TexAgs

Last time out, Tanner Jones was brilliant in a 7.1-inning outing vs. Vanderbilt. Jones did not allow a run and gave up just six hits.

On the mound, Jones appeared to turn the corner with a quality start against Vanderbilt. If he can prove this is the new normal going forward with another good showing on Friday, he will make this starting rotation very difficult to navigate for opposing hitters. Justin Lamkin hasn’t looked sharp in a couple of weeks, and his recent statistics reflect those struggles. His SEC ERA has ballooned to 7.08. If the lefty can’t bounce back this weekend, you have to start thinking about inserting Chris Cortez back into the rotation after his two brilliant outings that garnered him SEC Pitcher of the Week honors. Ideally, Lamkin needs to deliver a sharp effort on Saturday, so Jim Schlossnagle can build depth in the bullpen alongside Evan Aschenbeck.

Finally, the Aggies need to show poise and maturity this weekend. Alabama smells blood in the water after taking down No. 1 Arkansas last weekend. They are licking their chops to hammer a second top-ranked squad in as many weeks when A&M shows up with a big target on its back. Can they handle the spotlight and the pressure? They will be the hunted from this day forward as long as they hold on to the top spot. With the veteran presence of Montgomery, LaViolette, Jackson Appel, Ted Burton and Hayden Schott at the plate and Prager, Jones, Aschenbeck and Cortez on the mound, I expect the team to play loose and not worry about defending the No. 1 spot. If A&M plays up to its capabilities, there’s a good chance the team flies back on Saturday with another road series win under its belt. The numbers simply favor the Aggies in multiple offensive, pitching and fielding statistical categories.

What’s at stake this weekend

The Aggies gained two games on Arkansas in the SEC West standings, and now the race is on for the division crown with the Razorbacks with A&M just one game back in the standings. The Hogs will have their hands full on the road playing No. 20 South Carolina. The key for A&M is to avoid a road sweep, which is the goal for every SEC road trip. At 11-4, the Maroon & White can digest a 1-2 weekend and still be in legitimate pursuit of the divisional crown. Now, to stay on this hot streak and possibly pull even with Arkansas, winning the series will be nice, and A&M is the better team than Alabama, at least on paper. The only hesitation is how well the Crimson Tide play at home having won four home games over top-five SEC competition.

However, this Aggie team is taking on a special aura.

The bottom half of the batting order is starting to get hot, and a few arms in the bullpen are figuring out the strike zone. Most importantly, this team has momentum, having won eight of its last nine SEC games and doing so in a dominating fashion. If A&M can get a quality start out of Jones and/or Lamkin and Cortez stays sharp, the Crimson Tide will have a hard time holding serve in Tuscaloosa, and that means the Aggies are making a move at the top of the SEC West.

It would also get this team another step closer to the golden ticket of college baseball…a national seed.