Series Preview: Texas A&M vs. No. 25 South Carolina

Who:  University of South Carolina (30-21, 15-12 SEC)

Where:  Olsen Field @ Blue Bell Park — College Station, TX

When: 

Thursday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)

Friday 6:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)

Saturday 2:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Pitching matchups

Friday: Mitchell Kilkenny (RHP, 8-1, 2.12) vs. Logan Chapman (RHP, 3-1, 4.67)

Saturday: John Doxakis (LHP, 6-2, 2.86) vs. Adam Hill (RHP, 6-5, 4.08)

Sunday: TBA  vs. Cody Morris (RHP, 6-3, 4.23)

Scouting South Carolina

The Gamecocks are a hard team to figure out. On the surface, the team doesn't look that impressive by SEC standards when you look at their 30-21 record. The team ERA is a bloated 4.34, which is a full point above A&M's 3.33 collective ERA. They don't have a starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.00 and the bullpen looks pretty thin by the numbers. Although South Carolina has hit more long balls (64-45) than the Aggies, their team batting average of .276 is below A&M's .284. Yet, the Gamecocks are 9-3 and have won four straight SEC series enroute to a winning 15-12 conference record, while Texas A&M is 1-5 in the past two weeks with a losing 12-15 record in conference play.

There are good answers for these discrepancies. First-year head coach Mark KIngston was figuring out what he had with the roster he inherited, and the Gamecocks got off to a slow start losing to the likes of VMI, Furman, Charleston Southern and The Citadel. On March 25, South Carolina was 13-11 overall and in last place at 1-5 in SEC play. Since that time, they have gone 14-7 in conference including winning their last four SEC series. Now, the level of competition has something to do with that. South Carolina opened with No. 1 Florida and No. 16 ranked Georgia. It should also be noted that three of the four most recent series wins came at home. The Gamecocks are a sparkling 11-4 at Founder Park in Columbia, but just 4-8 on the road in the SEC. So, the question to be answered is whether South Carolina has truly turned the corner, or does this late surge have to do with a friendly schedule down the stretch? I guess we'll find out this weekend, where the games will be played at Olsen Field in College Station.

Despite the high ERA numbers, South Carolina has a couple of very talented and dangerous arms in the starting rotation. Junior Adam Hill has an elite college arm and will hear his name called early in the upcoming June draft, but a rash of untimely hits and periods of control problems have led to his 6-5 record and 4.08 ERA. But if you look at his innings pitched-to-hits ratio (64-38), strikeouts (87), and opponent batting average (.170), those are elite, all-SEC metrics. His downfall has been the 37 walks. By comparison, A&M's Mitchell KIlkenny has issued just 22 in 2018. Saturday starter Cody Morris has been hit-or-miss most of the season with a 4.22 ERA, but last weekend against Missouri he threw a gem, shutting out the Tigers and striking out 10. Thursday night starter Logan Chapman actually has the highest number of the weekend starters with an ERA of 4.67 and opponents hitting a juicy .257 against him. This will be one of the first opening games of an SEC weekend where the Aggies have a decided advantage on the hill according to the stats sheet.

At the plate, South Carolina has made quite a few moves during the season, but they appear to have found the right combination in recent weeks. The big power bat is Carlos Cortes with 14 home runs, including the walk-off game-winner on Sunday in the 9th inning of a 1-0 win. But otherwise, the talent and power is evenly dispersed throughout the lineup and not necessarily bunched in the middle of the order. J.T. Tolbert is in his third season as a starter and he's hitting .317 and leading the team with 43 RBI...and he's been hitting in the No. 6 hole in the lineup. Senior Justin Row is the leading hitter on the team at .362 and he bats in the No. 5 spot in the order. Coach Kingston has another senior in the clean-up spot. Jonah Bride is having a solid season hitting .324 and 25 RBI. So there are not many scary bats when you look at the lineup on paper, but there is solid run production up-and-down the order. There are few spots in this lineup where a pitcher can relax. Finally, South Carolina is reliable with the glove and does not beat themselves. Their team fielding percentage of .982 is one of the best in the SEC. The Aggies are sitting at .972 which is about average by college baseball standards.

Overall, this is a good, veteran Gamecock squad coming to College Station. But this isn't a dominant crew by any means, and they've struggled on the road in the SEC so far. So the opportunity is there for the Aggies to win this series....if they play well. Easier said than done in the 2018 campaign to date. 

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The major storyline this weekend is crystal clear. The Aggies must get the top of the batting order swinging the bat much better. Michael Helman has been hitting above .400 much of the season, but in the last 2-3 weeks, he's seen his average slip more than 40 points. You can't pin it on a run of bad luck either. He's looked lost at the plate with awkward cuts at the ball and quickly falling behind in the count. You can count on one hand the number of hard-hit balls generated from the Nebraska native over the last three weeks, and his strikeout totals have risen significantly. Braden Shewmake has scattered a few more hits over that same time period, but he's not delivering big, timely hits and he's not getting those home runs and extra-base hits in the No. 3 hole. For the season, Shewmake has only 14 extra base knocks and that is far below the expectations for the preseason all-American. He doesn't appear to be as selective this season only walking 18 times and swinging at multiple pitches out of the strike zone.

Brian Okosun

Zach DeLoach has been hitting the ball harder than his batting average would indicate, and he may be poised for a big weekend against the Gamecocks. 

On the other hand, I mentioned this in Tuesday's game thoughts, but freshman Zach DeLoach looks much better at the plate in recent weeks, but he has been bitten with some bad luck.  He's extending at-bats and he's putting the ball in play, and recently those balls in play have been hard grounders and line drives. On Tuesday, the stat sheet showed one hit and an RBI, but he hit the ball hard all four times at the plate. I like him back in the lead-off role, although he's not quite as selective as you like in that top spot.  

I mentioned those three hitters because for Texas A&M to be able to generate enough offense to win SEC ball games, they must get production out of DeLoach, Helman and Shewmake at the top of the order. They've got to put pressure on opposing pitchers and create tight spots for RBI bats like Hunter Coleman and Will Frizzell. If Helman can find his swing and become the .400 hitter he's been this season along with Shewmake that is not only hitting .340 but driving the ball into the gaps in all directions, and then have DeLoach drop some of those line drives in open spots, this will be a much different offense. It won't be an offensive juggernaut, but that lineup will be very capable of generating runs.

On the mound, it's no secret. This team needs quality sarts from the weekend rotation. The bullpen is thin and not very consistent, even though Kaylor Chafin and Cason Sherrod had good outings on Tuesday and could be turning a corner. But I'm in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode until I see these two seniors stack several effective performances in a row. Also pay close attention to closer Nolan Hoffman. His velocity has been down his last two outings, and he was hit pretty hard in both appearances. Was it a short-term deal, or is he starting to wear down from being the lone closer all season? We'll see this weekend.  

What's at stake this weekend 

It's the last regular season weekend of the year and a berth in the NCAA Tournament is now on the line after getting swept by Arkansas last week. At 12-15 in SEC play, a series loss to the Gamecocks would put the Aggies four games under .500 in the SEC heading to Hoover. A four-game sub-.500 team from the SEC has made the NCAA postseason, but not all four-game sub-.500 teams make it. Despite Texas A&M's high RPI of under 20, the team better not leave it up the committee going 1-2 this weekend and then losing the opener at the SEC Tourney. If that scenario occurs, the Aggies are sitting five games under .500 and would have finished the season going 2-8 in SEC play. I don't know about you, but that doesn't look good to me even if you slap a No. 20 RPI rating at the end of that resume'. But, other pundits think A&M should be safe barring a sweep at the hands of South Carolina. In my book though, A&M needs to remove all doubt and win at least two games against the Gamecocks this weekend.