75% ICU now COVID.............

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Gordo14
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In reply to TPS Reports • 4:22p, 1/8/21
McKinney Ag said:
Gordo14 said:
Just be glad the British strain didn't start here. According to NHS, 1 in 30 Londoners is actively infected with COVID. As long as we get vaccine rolling we should hopefully beat the worst of the new COVID strain.
And just like that the White House task force announces a potential new more transmissible USA variant.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/01/08/politics/white-house-coronavirus-task-force-reports/index.html


Yeah **** timing on my post part. Truly I couldn't have timed it better.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to cone • 4:32p, 1/8/21
AG
cone said:
from what i understand, the covid patients that can't get transfer or are piling up in ER hallways don't need ICUs (yet)

they need O2 and observation and typical standard of care

if that level of resource can't be found, then i hear that

but even non-covid patients can't obtain transfer now, because everything is full


Where is everything full? Are you speaking to a specific county in Texas? I'm in Virginia where we are far from full. OP is in Alabama which is one of the worst spots in the country at the moment.

Everything is definitely not full across the country. Covid tracking project has good state by state data showing the trends.
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ramblin_ag02
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 4:51p, 1/8/21
AG
North Texas, including the Metroplex and Wichita Falls, is full. We're having a difficult time getting out patients that are too sick for us.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 5:04p, 1/8/21
AG
Does this ever happen during a bad flu season? I know the pandemic documentary on Netflix showed some rural clinics and hospitals that are overwhelmed if there is a bad flu spike. I also heard that California has had to set up temporary hospitals in the past for bad flu years.

From your perspective is this the worst you have seen?
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cone
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 5:06p, 1/8/21
AG
Harris County Texas USA
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cone
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 5:08p, 1/8/21
AG
I have a family member on the frontline

in even bad flu season, you still still transfer a patient to a hospital somewhere within 100 miles
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to cone • 5:21p, 1/8/21
AG
cone said:
Harris County Texas USA


Interesting. Texas is at about a third of the hospitalizations per million that New York had at their peak. I wonder if there is a capacity issue in Texas or issue with rural areas and how spread out the state is. Or maybe its the shortage of health care workers that NY mitigated by people traveling there to help.
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tysker
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5:31p, 1/8/21
AG
There is so much unused medical office space here in north Dallas near Presby. I know this may come across as a silly question but why cant these offices be turned into makeshift ICUs? Seems better than using tents and convention center floors. Is there something specific about ICUs that make hard to convert space into? Is it an air ventilation issue, power concern for equipment, labor management, all the above? Or is it more likley that by time the area is situated, equipped and manned, the need is probably over?
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docaggie
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In reply to tysker • 5:46p, 1/8/21
AG
Personnel. Physical space is only part of the equation. Without people to staff them, it's useless.

We're on the verge of cancelling outpatient procedures to devote personnel to COVID ICUs.
Class of 1998;
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AggieMPH2005
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7:02p, 1/8/21
You can't easily turn medical office space to an ICU, the fire code requirements, air handling, medical gases and vacuum are vastly different.

I have managed clinics, ASCs and hospitals. They aren't comparable at all.
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Marcus Aurelius
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 7:15p, 1/8/21
AG
Gumby said:
Does this ever happen during a bad flu season? I know the pandemic documentary on Netflix showed some rural clinics and hospitals that are overwhelmed if there is a bad flu spike. I also heard that California has had to set up temporary hospitals in the past for bad flu years.

From your perspective is this the worst you have seen?



Been doing this 19 years (private practice) plus 11 years of med school residency fellowship. I have never ever seen anything like this. Nothing close. Including 2009 H1N1. Sheer volume, morbidity and mortality. From volume standpoint guessing 5 x worse with COVID. And it's getting worse. Mortality has to be higher with COVID. I saw data back in the summer showing that. Would like to see updated.

Not to mention flu is seasonal. This rages 365.
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docaggie
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In reply to Marcus Aurelius • 7:24p, 1/8/21
AG
Same. 15 years in tertiary care hospitals, plus residency years, and I've never seen anything remotely close. Makeshift ICUs, closed to transfers, canceling surgeries - nope, nothing even close to this. Never even had this kind of stuff as a contingency plan.

It's the kind of stuff that I used to see when my wife would watch Grey's Anatomy, and I'd snort, roll my eyes and say no way. (Granted, there's a whole lot of other stuff on there that's still 'no way'.)
Class of 1998;
Husband of an Aggie, Class of 1999;
Father to future Class of 2029 and 2031
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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ramblin_ag02
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 7:29p, 1/8/21
AG
Gumby said:
Does this ever happen during a bad flu season? I know the pandemic documentary on Netflix showed some rural clinics and hospitals that are overwhelmed if there is a bad flu spike. I also heard that California has had to set up temporary hospitals in the past for bad flu years.

From your perspective is this the worst you have seen?
It's never happened before. The closest we ever got in the past was when we have a critical patient in the ER, all ambulances running 911 calls and the weather too bad for helicopters. It's common for one big hospital or another to go on diversion, but never all of North Texas

Been at this hospital 10 years. Started med school in 2004 and nothing comes close. The swine flu had busy ERs, but that was more panic than anything. Tons of healthy or barely sick people were flooding the ER. All healthy and barely sick people are avoiding hospitals now and we're still overrun
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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cone
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 7:41p, 1/8/21
AG
Gumby said:
cone said:
Harris County Texas USA


Interesting. Texas is at about a third of the hospitalizations per million that New York had at their peak. I wonder if there is a capacity issue in Texas or issue with rural areas and how spread out the state is. Or maybe its the shortage of health care workers that NY mitigated by people traveling there to help.
i don't know what to tell other than the facts on the ground

i do think this is clearly seasonal though. but that likely means another 2-3 months of awfulness.

i'm hopeful with vaccinate rollouts that we crest by March
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to GAC06 • 8:50p, 1/8/21
AG
GAC06 said:
Duncan Idaho said:
If you are talking timeline, I am going to guess At least 3 weeks out when the new years deaths hit. If the new strain doesn't modify behavior, it will be further out.


If you are talking daily death count, I am going to say we will hit at 6-7k a day before we start declining.

Like I said when I said we were going to loose 100,000s to this virus, I hope to God I am wrong.

I truly hope you can rightfully ttt this response and laugh at me


Oh ok, so you were just stating your wild guess as fact. Neat.


You asked when he thought the peak would be, he told you, and then you mock him? WUT

Nobody knows EXACTLY when the peak will happen but I agree with Duncan
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 8:55p, 1/8/21
AG
Someone close to me tested positive, had low oxygen, walked into the hospital Tuesday. Got a room and Oxygen tank immediately. This is in San Antonio. Intubated the next day though, poor dude
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to Marcus Aurelius • 10:28p, 1/8/21
AG
Marcus Aurelius said:
Gumby said:
Does this ever happen during a bad flu season? I know the pandemic documentary on Netflix showed some rural clinics and hospitals that are overwhelmed if there is a bad flu spike. I also heard that California has had to set up temporary hospitals in the past for bad flu years.

From your perspective is this the worst you have seen?



Been doing this 19 years (private practice) plus 11 years of med school residency fellowship. I have never ever seen anything like this. Nothing close. Including 2009 H1N1. Sheer volume, morbidity and mortality. From volume standpoint guessing 5 x worse with COVID. And it's getting worse. Mortality has to be higher with COVID. I saw data back in the summer showing that. Would like to see updated.

Not to mention flu is seasonal. This rages 365.
I saw Alabama's numbers and it looks like things are as bad there as anywhere in the US right now. Why do you think things are so bad there?
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to ramblin_ag02 • 10:31p, 1/8/21
AG
ramblin_ag02 said:
Gumby said:
Does this ever happen during a bad flu season? I know the pandemic documentary on Netflix showed some rural clinics and hospitals that are overwhelmed if there is a bad flu spike. I also heard that California has had to set up temporary hospitals in the past for bad flu years.

From your perspective is this the worst you have seen?
It's never happened before. The closest we ever got in the past was when we have a critical patient in the ER, all ambulances running 911 calls and the weather too bad for helicopters. It's common for one big hospital or another to go on diversion, but never all of North Texas

Been at this hospital 10 years. Started med school in 2004 and nothing comes close. The swine flu had busy ERs, but that was more panic than anything. Tons of healthy or barely sick people were flooding the ER. All healthy and barely sick people are avoiding hospitals now and we're still overrun
Yeah, I know several people that caught it at the hospital so there is no way I would go to a hospital unless absolutely necessary. I haven't been to any medical care provider since March and I won't go until this all settles down unless it's an absolute emergency. Unfortunately there are people who should be going who are also avoiding care. I suspect the system is going to be quite busy for a while once these people start having issues.
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Marcus Aurelius
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 10:40p, 1/8/21
AG
Gumby said:
Marcus Aurelius said:
Gumby said:
Does this ever happen during a bad flu season? I know the pandemic documentary on Netflix showed some rural clinics and hospitals that are overwhelmed if there is a bad flu spike. I also heard that California has had to set up temporary hospitals in the past for bad flu years.

From your perspective is this the worst you have seen?



Been doing this 19 years (private practice) plus 11 years of med school residency fellowship. I have never ever seen anything like this. Nothing close. Including 2009 H1N1. Sheer volume, morbidity and mortality. From volume standpoint guessing 5 x worse with COVID. And it's getting worse. Mortality has to be higher with COVID. I saw data back in the summer showing that. Would like to see updated.

Not to mention flu is seasonal. This rages 365.
I saw Alabama's numbers and it looks like things are as bad there as anywhere in the US right now. Why do you think things are so bad there?


IDK. But it is horrible. Most people following mitigation rules.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Marcus Aurelius • 10:46p, 1/8/21
Marcus Aurelius said:
Gumby said:
Marcus Aurelius said:
Gumby said:
Does this ever happen during a bad flu season? I know the pandemic documentary on Netflix showed some rural clinics and hospitals that are overwhelmed if there is a bad flu spike. I also heard that California has had to set up temporary hospitals in the past for bad flu years.

From your perspective is this the worst you have seen?



Been doing this 19 years (private practice) plus 11 years of med school residency fellowship. I have never ever seen anything like this. Nothing close. Including 2009 H1N1. Sheer volume, morbidity and mortality. From volume standpoint guessing 5 x worse with COVID. And it's getting worse. Mortality has to be higher with COVID. I saw data back in the summer showing that. Would like to see updated.

Not to mention flu is seasonal. This rages 365.
I saw Alabama's numbers and it looks like things are as bad there as anywhere in the US right now. Why do you think things are so bad there?


IDK. But it is horrible. Most people following mitigation rules.

I can't even begin to tell you how many christmas parties I saw in and around Greystone.

Hell one chick in my girlfriend's bible study group "went and got tested on the way back from the gym. I just thought I had a cold but it was covid."

She was showing symptoms and still decided driving to her gym in hoover and working out with her trainer was a good idea.
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Not a Bot
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11:10p, 1/8/21
AG
Hospital census has been over 50% Covid+ for the last few weeks. Was hoping it peaked but not yet.
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Fitch
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1:03a, 1/9/21
AG
Not to add insult to injury here, but the hospitalization trends in Texas are showing no signs of abating anywhere east of Midland. Austin in particular has a near vertical trend line and this last week exceeded their summer peak.

Barring a white swan surprise turnaround Houston and San Antonio will eclipse their summer peak hospitalizations in the next week.

Dallas-Fort Worth is over 210% of that region's June-July peak and not yet showing signs of slowing.

The smaller cities are by and large no better off, with some exceptions along the coast and down in the valley.

Really need to get a handle on case growth.
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AgsMyDude
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In reply to Fitch • 7:31a, 1/9/21
AG
Bexar county itself has already surpassed July's peak in terms of hospitalizations. The entire TSA region of SA will very likely be there by Monday like you said.
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Not a Bot
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In reply to Fitch • 8:00a, 1/9/21
AG
Those spikes are going to put a huge pressure on staffing. Right now the agency nurses being brought in are sufficient, but now there's going to be even more demand for their services. Thankfully we've had a lot of people coming in from the Midwest and along the East Coast who are not having huge spikes right now, helping us out.
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BowSowy
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 9:12a, 1/9/21
AG
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to Not a Bot • 11:12a, 1/9/21
AG
Cactus Jack said:
Those spikes are going to put a huge pressure on staffing. Right now the agency nurses being brought in are sufficient, but now there's going to be even more demand for their services. Thankfully we've had a lot of people coming in from the Midwest and along the East Coast who are not having huge spikes right now, helping us out.


We had something like 30,000 health care workers lose their jobs in Virginia. Not sure if they have the right skills but there are definitely people in health care who aren't working.

Also wondering if all those practices that people are avoiding can shift manpower around. PCPs and other specialists have been closing their practices and laying off staff. Where are these people going? Maybe staying home to take care of kids because schools are closed? Should be a massive surplus of health care workers due to overall health care consumption decreasing.
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Big Al 1992
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11:51a, 1/9/21
AG
Are we still talking all ages, relatively fit filling up the hospitals or is like previously mentioned - a lot of 70-80 year olds or obese people.
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GAC06
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 11:54a, 1/9/21
AG
Was it ever "all ages, relatively fit people filling up hospitals"?
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Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag
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1:17p, 1/9/21
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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DCAggie13y
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In reply to Dr. Not Yet Dr. Ag • 2:52p, 1/9/21
AG
Thats pretty funny but personally I have trouble breathing with the cloth masks. I wear them as required and if I'm around people but I can't tolerate them for very long. When I take off the mask I notice a huge difference in how much air I take in.
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bay fan
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In reply to Sonic5678 • 3:21p, 1/9/21
S
Aggiegirl1977 said:
I will never have a DNR.
I do. You likely haven't watched someone you love dearly slowly die in a hospital setting. I don't want my kids in that situation. They both know, as do all my friends, the circumstances I want to just peacefully pass.
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bay fan
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:30p, 1/9/21
S
nortex97 said:
Aggiegirl1977 said:
I will never have a DNR.
I'll have one in place as soon as I think it's a risk to be in the hospital for more than 90 days, or by the time I hit 70, whichever comes first.
Why is it age related? I view it as a quality of life thing and accidents happen at all ages. I am 55 and have had one for many years. It's as much for my kids as me.
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bay fan
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In reply to cc_ag92 • 3:39p, 1/9/21
S
cc_ag92 said:
I am in Collin County, so yes.

It's such a big state that obviously behavior is different all over. There are some places where people have generally made significant lifestyle changes, but definitely other places where people have not.
My 20 something year old daughter in Dallas was very responsible until fall. Now she and her friends go out unfettered. Not surprisingly one of her friends infected her entire family in a different state at Xmas. That's how we are where we currently are, Covid fatigue.
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nortex97
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In reply to bay fan • 3:42p, 1/9/21
AG
bay fan said:
nortex97 said:
Aggiegirl1977 said:
I will never have a DNR.
I'll have one in place as soon as I think it's a risk to be in the hospital for more than 90 days, or by the time I hit 70, whichever comes first.
Why is it age related? I view it as a quality of life thing and accidents happen at all ages. I am 55 and have had one for many years. It's as much for my kids as me.
I admit to being a bit lazy/a coward about it.
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bay fan
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In reply to DCAggie13y • 4:07p, 1/9/21
S
Gumby said:
Yeah our mitigation measures in Virginia haven't changed since June and hospitalizations started increasing as temperatures dropped. We also had cases drop down in August with no changes. Its almost like this thing moves up and down regardless of intervention, though maybe mitigation limit the intensity of the increase.

Looking at Los Angeles, they are getting smashed and they have had the longest most aggressive lockdown in the country. They didn't relieve the lockdown before things took off.
The truth is LA is not compliant. Bars may be closed but people are still gathering in confined places and spreading the virus.

In Northern California, we are not in the same stratosphere as LA. Why? We have basically the same state mandates but my friends here in Northern CA are very conscientious and we don't gather.
Most of my social interactions are outside or with the same very small group who have been in my bubble since March.

My friends in LA think they are complying if they aren't eating out etc but the truth is, they mingle in groups all the time and their groups constantly change.

It's not the mandates failing, it's the people.
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