First let's agree on the terms referenced; lockdowns, businesses closed, and mandates that masks be worn (and in fact generally followed) are measurable NPI's based on government mandates/dates and cases/deaths/positive test rates. Those are the NPI's I primarily track, anyway.Gordo14 said:nortex97 said:The data from Sweden says that is false. Countries in the southern hemisphere (but for Australia) also did not predominantly use the same NPI/mitigation measures the US and Europe have largely adopted.ramblin_ag02 said:I posted this on another thread that got booted to F16, but I don't believe this at all. We meticulously track RSV and influenza every single year. Our current mitigation protocols for COVID seem to have almost completely stopped the spread of those respiratory illnesses. The southern hemisphere basically skipped flu and RSV season last year, and we're well on our way to doing the same. This is profound evidence that out mitigation strategies reduce the spread of respiratory viruses. Since COVID is a respiratory virus, there is every reason to think we are making a big difference with our current strategies. We just can't tell because we have no past data to draw from. Maybe without our mitigations COVID levels would be double or more the current amount. We have no idea, because it's brand new. But we have seen a dramatic reduction in every other respiratory virus.Quote:
It is becoming increasing clear none of our mitigation protocols are working. Why that is seems up for debate but as I asked previously how is it possible the elderly and infirmed are still getting covid is beyond me. It cant all be because of f16. There must a breakdown occurring somewhere and no person, people, or institution wants to take responsibility.
Sweden is right in the middle of their peers and did no lockdowns/had normal restaurants/no mask usage practically in public all through about at least October.
There's no evidence, and in fact a lot of evidence to the contrary, that NPI's don't have an impact on Covid.
I would like to hear your explanation for why NPI's on a purely fundamental level (basically just government enforced social distancing) don't work. If, say, people don't go to a bar for drinks because bars are closed, how does the transmission of virus from that interaction still spread? Now scale that up to a country level with things that partially mitigate spread (like masks) and social distancing as well as fully mitigated spread like closed theaters and no live concerts. The only way these don't work would be if you argue these social interactions that fuel virus transmission happen anyway. That assertion is unfounded. Again the purpose of NPIs is to change the rate of transmission, not make it zero.
If lockdowns and NPI worked, California surely would be doing better, in the present resurgence, than Florida, right (hint, it's not, nor is NY, as shown in the video below)? Show me a case study where NPI measures correlate to cases dropping off 2 weeks after being implemented, or heck, anything beyond a R2 of .01 or worse.