A Natural Experiment in the Effectiveness of Mask Mandates (Univ. of Kansas)

10,215 Views | 106 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by NASAg03
ORAggieFan
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Federale01 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/pandemic-states-virus-rebound-429753

In many parts of the country, yes they are.
It's typical media BS. Utah currently has the same hospitalizations per million as NJ, 1/9 of what the NJ peak was.

NY never needed the additional capacity they brought in and we won't hit anything near NY levels anywhere in the US.
AggieSarah01
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I am kind of wondering about NM's hospitalizations. It has been steadily climbing for about 2 weeks now.
nortex97
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https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/
fat girlfriend
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Federale01 said:

What is the "other side" other than not wanting to and freedom? I have yet to see someone present a logical reason for not wearing a mask. I have heard, "there is no evidence they are effective," "Freedom/America," "God will protect me," "I don't want to," and "I have a health condition." Other than the last one, what excuse not to wear them has any validity for folks to be so understanding about?
I think it's pretty easy to imagine an argument against wearing masks like this:

"If it's not selfish to refuse to a wear a mask during flu season in any normal year, then it's not selfish to refuse to wear a mask right now, at least in all environments in which the large majority of people are under 70.
But you agree that it's not selfish to refuse to wear a mask during flu season in any normal year. So you should concede that it's not selfish to refuse to wear a mask in most places today, too."

I work at a small college. We've had like 300 faculty and students infected since the beginning of the year. Not a single one has even had to go to the hospital. In my context, it's hard to stay scared of this infection.
Keller6Ag91
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texagbeliever said:

Little Bill said:

What I don't understand is the almost religious zeal against wearing masks. It reminds me of those who are extremely anti-vaccinations.

Wearing a mask isn't a giant imposition on personal freedom. It doesn't prevent you from going out, living your life, or running your business. It is much better than the asinine government-ordered shut downs that destroy the economy.

Is the scientific evidence 100% in support? No.

Is there strong evidence in support? Yes.

Wearing a mask is part of our civic duty while we muddle our way through this fiasco/pandemic. Wearing masks is a good way to be a helpful and patriotic member of society and to help those who are more vulnerable.

If there is a 50/50 chance that wearing a mask saves your neighbor or grandparent, why wouldn't you do it?
So let me replay this post for you:
  • You paint people opposed to wearing masks as being fringe lunatics who are anti-science
  • Then you make a veiled threat: Wear a mask otherwise we will shut everything down again
  • Then you make an emotional plea to people's "civic duty" and "patriotism". With no regard to bill of right's or anything that is remotely civic or patriotic
  • Then you make the ultimate emotional plea that you have a 50% chance to save grandma

My follow up to you is this.
  • If someone has already had covid and recovered why should they wear a mask? Please be as scientific as possible in your explanation.
  • What is the "math" behind that 50/50 chance reduction?
  • Will you admit that your argument for wearing a mask is largely based on emotion and not logic?
  • Do you have an agreeable or disagreeable personality? I would bet the overwhelming number of mask pumpers have agreeable personalities and a strong desire to be liked. People who are "anti mask" create a direct conflict with agreeable personalities because no matter what they do is going to be seen as "wrong" to some people. So an agreeable personality is likely to choose to slander one side while appealing using centrist overtones. In this case a disagreeable person but pro mask wouldn't argue it is a civic or patriotic duty to wear a mask, they would choose a more hardline extreme argument.

Spot freaking on.
Gig'Em and God Bless,

JB'91
amercer
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Username is high risk.
AggieMD95
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TheMasterplan said:

TomFoolery said:

Little Bill said:

Masks are effective.

Are they 100%? No.

Are they better than not wearing them? Yes.

They are likely more effective as barriers to spreading infection than they are as barriers to infection.

So, the wearing of mask is to help others, not to help yourself so much. Thus, the refusal to wear a mask is a selfish and self-centered action.

We don't speed in school zones so as to avoid running over small children. We should wear masks so as to help prevent the infection of those at risk.

Good to see some empirical evidence supporting masks.


I see the logic with this 100%. My one question is, is there an end? This about masks and respiratory diseases has always been true. Albeit in the recent past they haven't been as serious or we have understood how to treat them better such as the common cold and the flu. That being said these diseases like the flu have killed people in the past and will continue to kill people. Hopefully we eradicate COVID-19, but it's entirely likely it will continue on as well.

Now that we have worn masks to save lives, is there an acceptable amount of lives it must save to make it worth while? We never wore masks for the flu and no one was called selfish. If we get COVID-19 down to a death rate that equals the flu will we remove masks as a societal norm/expectation, or are they here to stay to continue to prevent future disease spread?
lol

That ain't happening. We have to learn to live with this virus.


Yeah. Next we will eradicate the common cold corona viruses too
aggiederelict
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Don't we just need to look at Japan to see what happens when everyone wears masks and the impact that it has during a pandemic? How dense it Tokyo? There numbers are nothing compared to NYC and NYC doesn't even compare to the size of Tokyo.

And to think how much cleaner Japan is in general compared to major cities across the world. Seems that it can make a significant impact.
deadbq03
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Whether masks should be mandated or not is most certainly a valid debate, and I honestly hope a case makes its way to the Supreme Court about masks and other mandates.

But it defies both science and common sense to deny that masks help.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html
ORAggieFan
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aggiederelict said:

Don't we just need to look at Japan to see what happens when everyone wears masks and the impact that it has during a pandemic? How dense it Tokyo? There numbers are nothing compared to NYC and NYC doesn't even compare to the size of Tokyo.

And to think how much cleaner Japan is in general compared to major cities across the world. Seems that it can make a significant impact.

No. Comparing Asia to Europe or NA is massively flawed. As is comparing islands.
aggiederelict
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So why do you think their numbers are so slow then considering their density and they are going about their business?
ORAggieFan
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Cross immunity due to similar Corona viruses and being an island making it way easier to close borders.
tysker
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deadbq03 said:

Whether masks should be mandated or not is most certainly a valid debate, and I honestly hope a case makes its way to the Supreme Court about masks and other mandates.

But it defies both science and common sense to deny that masks help.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html

I would think it take longer for a mask mandate case to work it's way up through the courts than this pandemic will last (assuming its even a pandemic anymore).
aggiederelict
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I have seen the article about cross immunity. And I think there might be something to that. But to dismiss masks as doing nothing seems so binary. Are the perfect? No. Does the type of mask make a difference? Are you suggesting N95 masks don't provide any level of protection at all? As good as not wearing one at all?
012-MAN
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We know that mask do not really prevent someone from catching the covid
We know that mask "help" others not catch it if you are sick.
We know that doctors wear masks
We know that doctors hanging out with covid positives wear masks and faceshield.


My question is simple. Why must someone wear a mask that does not really work (i.e. prevent them from getting sick) when EVERYONE has the option to wear a mask+faceshield and have a very effective means from preventing them from catching the covid?
aggiebrad94
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012-MAN said:

We know that mask do not really prevent someone from catching the covid
We know that mask "help" others not catch it if you are sick.
We know that doctors wear masks
We know that doctors hanging out with covid positives wear masks and faceshield.


My question is simple. Why must someone wear a mask that does not really work (i.e. prevent them from getting sick) when EVERYONE has the option to wear a mask+faceshield and have a very effective means from preventing them from catching the covid?
Dr.s do countless things in the name of tradition that are no longer valid.

Someone posted a study recently about masks in surgery provide zero protection from infection for the staff or patient, but they still wear them.
ORAggieFan
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012-MAN said:

We know that mask do not really prevent someone from catching the covid
We know that mask "help" others not catch it if you are sick.
We know that doctors wear masks
We know that doctors hanging out with covid positives wear masks and faceshield.


My question is simple. Why must someone wear a mask that does not really work (i.e. prevent them from getting sick) when EVERYONE has the option to wear a mask+faceshield and have a very effective means from preventing them from catching the covid?

CDC now saying they protect the wearer......

Interestingly, health providers are one of the largest mass spreader locations we have. You'd think effectiveness of masks would be greatest with those trained in proper usage and fitting. Maybe it's offset by the likelihood of higher number of positives visiting.
notex
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Masks do nothing to stop the spread, yet another data point.

I Am A Critic
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That 94% number is BS.
Username checks out.
CowtownEng
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notex said:

Masks do nothing to stop the spread, yet another data point.




You may be correct, but either way your assertion that masks do nothing cannot be proven by the data contained within the quoted tweet.
oldschool87
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pantherag said:

So that study shows that it cut cases per 100K from 0.0004 w/o Mask to 0.0002 w/ Mask? That 50% decrease in cases is huge impact, could have been catastrophic.


Nice!
oldschool87
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deadbq03 said:

Whether masks should be mandated or not is most certainly a valid debate, and I honestly hope a case makes its way to the Supreme Court about masks and other mandates.

But it defies both science and common sense to deny that masks help.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html



So for every 10 million cases 1 more person might get Covid if we don't wear masks?

Is that what your numbers say?

I like the 50% media spin though, I'll give you a D for effort there...
notex
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The masqueraders really are upping their game. I'm impressed. But I believed Fauci 1.0 when he said there was no reason for the public to wear masks, and have not gone along with versions 2.0 onward.

ORAggieFan
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Update:
CowtownEng
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ORAggieFan said:

Update:



Masks may be useless. Masks may be helpful. This chart doesn't provide evidence for either.
ORAggieFan
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CowtownEng said:

ORAggieFan said:

Update:



Masks may be useless. Masks may be helpful. This chart doesn't provide evidence for either.

Neither does the study in the OP which this chart is based on.
CowtownEng
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ORAggieFan said:

CowtownEng said:

ORAggieFan said:

Update:



Masks may be useless. Masks may be helpful. This chart doesn't provide evidence for either.

Neither does the study in the OP which this chart is based on.


I don't disagree.
oldschool87
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ORAggieFan said:

CowtownEng said:

ORAggieFan said:

Update:



Masks may be useless. Masks may be helpful. This chart doesn't provide evidence for either.

Neither does the study in the OP which this chart is based on.


The reason the chart uses % is that if it used real numbers it would be a joke!

For example I am 55, anyone younger than me is getting older at a higher % than I am.

If you are 4 feet from a wall an you always go 50% closer with every step you will never get to the wall. But one 50% step will be 2 feet while another will be less than the thickness of a hair. Yet the 50% statement is correct!

Point being any chart with only % is hidding something or more than likely cannot prove it's theory with actual numbers so it uses %.

1000% of .00004 is still not a whole person!
ORAggieFan
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oldschool87 said:

ORAggieFan said:

CowtownEng said:

ORAggieFan said:

Update:



Masks may be useless. Masks may be helpful. This chart doesn't provide evidence for either.

Neither does the study in the OP which this chart is based on.


The reason the chart uses % is that if it used real numbers it would be a joke!

For example I am 55, anyone younger than me is getting older at a higher % than I am.

If you are 4 feet from a wall an you always go 50% closer with every step you will never get to the wall. But one 50% step will be 2 feet while another will be less than the thickness of a hair. Yet the 50% statement is correct!

Point being any chart with only % is hidding something or more than likely cannot prove it's theory with actual numbers so it uses %.

1000% of .00004 is still not a whole person!

Sure, if they didn't start with the same number....
Baby Billy
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I don't wear one because:
1. I'm not worried about it
2. I've already had it
3. I don't want to be within 6 feet of someone regardless of what's going on.

If you want to wear one because you think it protects you, that's your prerogative and none of my business.
notex
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The neatest thing about not wearing a mask is that (some) people are afraid to get close to you.
TheMasterplan
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If you look at the charts of every area, you couldn't tell which area had a mask mandate and which didn't.
bigtruckguy3500
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Correlation =/= causation, and a lot of factors to consider here (increased hand washing, increased social distancing, decreased play time/school time, etc), and I don't think you can correlate this to any one thing. But this is a graph Cook Children's hospital just put out, which is quite astonishing.

cone
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think of how many children's lives could be saved by masking up every flu season
nortex97
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cone said:

think of how many children's lives could be saved by masking up every flu season
Not a single one. Basic sanitation/social distancing and a huge surge in total ILI earlier in the year, greater levels of vaccination, a weaker than usual flu season in the southern hemisphere, and including killing a lot of 'dried timber' have just lead to a massive drop in flu in the first half of the season.

There is no scientific correlation with widespread mask usage and flu/ILI (coronavirus is an ILI and has always been tracked by CDC as such) cases/deaths. Flu kills very, very few children annually, as well.

As with the "Kansas study" in the OP, headlines do not equate to conclusions drawn with respect to masks, certainly not with respect to correlation/causation. Masks are unhealthy and we need to move away from them as soon as possible from a policy position.
 
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