Lester Freamon said:
If anyone wants proof that lockdowns don't work, look at Hawaii right now. They haven't allowed non residents without a 14 day quarantine since April 1 and even have an OUTDOOR mask policy.
How many non residents go to Hawaii for more than 14 days? That move alone virtually guaranteed no tourists would be traveling to the islands and importing the virus.
Once this thing gets going, it spreads like wildfire. There is no holding it back forever, short of a miracle vaccine, which many of us aren't willing to wait indefinitely for. I sincerely hope it occurs by end of 2020 or at the latest, spring 2021. But even if not, we may very well hit our level of immunity where it doesn't make a huge difference. Obviously we keep going for it. It's better than not.
Then it hits a certain portion of the population after spreading quicker than originally thought, kills less of a percentage than originally thought, and begins to taper off. With different mitigation strategies across the globe. Masks/no masks. Social distancing, lockdowns, etc.
Luckily in Texas, we are getting closer and closer to that point, and looks like we already reached the tipping point. Which, depending on the population and the presumed immunity that population has, appears to be 15-25% Here is Texas now estimated at 18.7% and the graphs going down.
https://covid19-projections.com/us-txOnce everyone wakes up to this, we will be better off. Now, that said, this assumes some social distancing and mask orders are still followed. We all have our own opinions/agreements as to whether those are worth it, but it is what it is.