California Ag 90 said:

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Philip J Fry said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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TXAggie2011 said:

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Californians spend half of their week in a car by themself on the 405. I think that's a big reason why they've not had the severe problems that the NYC metro are has seen.

Is that what you're asking?

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and there you go - perfect illustration.

that statement is utterly absurd. the very definition of the sort of nonsense 'one liner' generalization you are accusing others of.

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I live on LA County. What exactly is wrong with this statement?

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uhhhh...not sure if serious...how about because 'california' isn't 'LA County'.

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Half the state lives in the LA metro area. And while the Bay Area is dense and BART is busy, the NYC metro area is still a different world.

4,000 more people per kilometer square in NYC than San Francisco.

The virus was and is going to spread differently in NYC than anywhere in the country.

But Kern county....

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Half the state lives in the LA metro area. And while the Bay Area is dense and BART is busy, the NYC metro area is still a different world.

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Closer to a 1/3rd.

I was following this thread due to the interest in the differences that we see between so many places.

Sweeden is showing 10K cases with about 900 deaths. Yet Guayaquil, in Ecuador, with a population of about 1.6 million has about 7000 cases, and the unofficial death number is running between 1000 to 1500. Whatever it is, in Guayaquil there are bodies being left out in the streets and the morgues and funeral homes are full. Yet Quito, in the same country, with about 400K less population is showing 600 cases and 26 deaths.

Guayaquil and Quito are about 290 miles from each other. Guayaquil is sultry and hot and in the tropics and this time of year Quito is cool and damp.

What is the difference?

I can't help but think there is something really complex, or maybe it is really simple and we just haven't grasped it yet, about this virus. From all we have been told and brow beaten with in the media, Latin America should have frothing zombies roaming around sick. Guayaquil, supposedly has a terrible situation, but other parts do not. There is not a huge difference in Guayaquil to many other large LatAm cities.

In Texas, the Valley has about 350 cases, yet across about a 25 yard wide river, where filth and poverty abounds, in a population 2X the size of the northern shore, the Mexican side is counting about 11 cases. Typical crap ass Mexican reporting/accounting? or is it just not showing up in such an aggressive way to cause panic?

What is the difference between most parts of Latin America and Guayaquil? Why is NYC a terrible situation and most of the US not so? Why hasn't the Golden State been ravaged?

Sweden did their deal, and while bad, it is not off the rails. There is so much that is not known or understood about this pestilence as of yet.

I am not as smart and learned as a lot of you science and medicine guys on here, my background pales in comparison to many of the sharp doc's and scientist on here.

Noted on what you mention about speed. That is logical and makes sense. But why the difference in speed and virulence of two populations 290 miles apart?

Something is way different between the two locations.

I have had the same discussion with friends. It just seems to me that their is something else with this that we have not figured out. The numbers are just too different statistically.


I have the same questions about why we have so many negative tests, when only the truly sick are getting tested. It just seems off, like we are missing something.

Eventually science will prevail and I guarantee this will be studied for decades if not centuries.

I agree with you, I just thinking about how this will be looked at and studied for a long time.

There are obviously lots of logical and congruent scenarios bearing out, but damm there are some that make no sense.

They've identified some individual vectors linking Spain to Guayaquil, and those vectors to large weddings in Guayaquil. I think the forensics will uncover some bad luck was involved for certain locations around the globe.

But something strange has gone on with their testing. They had a 44% increase in reported cases yesterday. Than 1.3% today.

That said, the images and stories out of Guayaquil are shocking. And certainly confirm that Guayaquil has it a lot worse right now than Quito and other South American cities.


I'll posit that inter-city travel isn't as prevalent in Ecuador and other relatively poorer countries. The consequence being you may see more local variation than you would in a wealthier country with more inter-city travel. Lack of vectors doesn't allow the virus to move.

Certainly a strange situation, though.

This is all true from what I've heard. There was also a large funeral for a member of a prominent Lebanese family that occurred before they were taking things seriously. They traced a "super spreader" that had been in Europe and passed it on there.

There are roughly half a million ecuadorians living in Spain and Guayaquil was on their "Summer" vacation in February. Just the perfect **** storm to ravage the city.

The "bodies in the streets" issue was a real thing but that mainly has to do with it having typical third world infrastructure that was certainly not prepared for this. I believe the original plan was to cremate the bodies but they just didn't have the storage capacity to handle the spike. With nowhere to take the bodies, they weren't in a huge rush to pick them up. Poor families living in 300 sqft houses couldn't just put their loved ones in the back yard, so they went out to the street. They finally got that SNAFU addressed but are still having logistical issues. They're been on lockdown for close to a month (much stricter than here) so I would hope that cases are trending down. They don't have many testing kits so hard to get great numbers.

As to why Quito didn't experience a similar fate, I've heard they use the same school calendar as we do in the US, so that would explain why they didn't have as much European travel going on.

RGV AG said:

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I was following this thread due to the interest in the differences that we see between so many places.

Sweeden is showing 10K cases with about 900 deaths. Yet Guayaquil, in Ecuador, with a population of about 1.6 million has about 7000 cases, and the unofficial death number is running between 1000 to 1500. Whatever it is, in Guayaquil there are bodies being left out in the streets and the morgues and funeral homes are full. Yet Quito, in the same country, with about 400K less population is showing 600 cases and 26 deaths.

Guayaquil and Quito are about 290 miles from each other. Guayaquil is sultry and hot and in the tropics and this time of year Quito is cool and damp.

What is the difference?

I can't help but think there is something really complex, or maybe it is really simple and we just haven't grasped it yet, about this virus. From all we have been told and brow beaten with in the media, Latin America should have frothing zombies roaming around sick. Guayaquil, supposedly has a terrible situation, but other parts do not. There is not a huge difference in Guayaquil to many other large LatAm cities.

In Texas, the Valley has about 350 cases, yet across about a 25 yard wide river, where filth and poverty abounds, in a population 2X the size of the northern shore, the Mexican side is counting about 11 cases. Typical crap ass Mexican reporting/accounting? or is it just not showing up in such an aggressive way to cause panic?

What is the difference between most parts of Latin America and Guayaquil? Why is NYC a terrible situation and most of the US not so? Why hasn't the Golden State been ravaged?

Sweden did their deal, and while bad, it is not off the rails. There is so much that is not known or understood about this pestilence as of yet.

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Maybe altitude. Maybe there are less people stacked on top of each other.

Houston hasn't seen the predicted numbers that NYC. The biggest difference between the two is Houston really doesn't have areas where folks live that are stacked on one another. There are no European type (old city) type areas on Houston.

I would throw a dart and say the models that are used to predict spread doesn't quite have the stacking of people accounted for correctly.

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They've identified some individual vectors linking Spain to Guayaquil, and those vectors to large weddings in Guayaquil. I think the forensics will uncover some bad luck was involved for certain locations around the globe.

But something strange has gone on with their testing. They had a 44% increase in reported cases yesterday. Than 1.3% today.

That said, the images and stories out of Guayaquil are shocking. And certainly confirm that Guayaquil has it a lot worse right now than Quito and other South American cities.


I'll posit that inter-city travel isn't as prevalent in Ecuador and other relatively poorer countries. The consequence being you may see more local variation than you would in a wealthier country with more inter-city travel. Lack of vectors doesn't allow the virus to move.

Certainly a strange situation, though.

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Sorry for the late reply, got a lot of stuff going on.

Good points, and apt observations about the testing. I do not have the time to follow the deep stats, and they sometimes are above my Liberal Art's ass, so I tend to read more about the story.

I work with a company that basically ended up with an Ecuadorian employee boom instead of Mexican, it is just wild. Typical immigrant deal of bringing the hermano, cunado, etc. as they got an opportunity. The company, on a per capita basis is probably 70% 1st and 2nd generation immigrants from Ecuador.

In talking to two folks there, they can't understand the deal really. They believe the dirtiness of Guayaquil as compared to Quito, although they claim Quito has more slums, might have something to do with it. They also say the water supply in Guayaquil is filthy, terrible. Maybe something there? What they also said was that the fear of the virus has caused governmental breakdown, and that is concerning.

I would have to say, having spent most of my life in LatAm, that there is usually quite a bit of travel, and this is what doesn't make sense, between larger cities, and it is usually by bus which are crowded. I have ridden buses at different times, all over Mex, and as far down, in varying routes, to Panama. I understand Guayaquil and Quito, are no different. Why has Quito escaped a similar wrath?

But your right, the testing there is gotta be jacked up.

I literally just gave you the main reasons. Nothing to do with water supplies. It was all about travel schedules.

Quito and Guayaquil are like Dallas and Houston. Don't believe a word you hear from someone outside of Guayas because tribalism is very strong in Ecuador.

RGV AG said:

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They've identified some individual vectors linking Spain to Guayaquil, and those vectors to large weddings in Guayaquil. I think the forensics will uncover some bad luck was involved for certain locations around the globe.

But something strange has gone on with their testing. They had a 44% increase in reported cases yesterday. Than 1.3% today.

That said, the images and stories out of Guayaquil are shocking. And certainly confirm that Guayaquil has it a lot worse right now than Quito and other South American cities.


I'll posit that inter-city travel isn't as prevalent in Ecuador and other relatively poorer countries. The consequence being you may see more local variation than you would in a wealthier country with more inter-city travel. Lack of vectors doesn't allow the virus to move.

Certainly a strange situation, though.

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Sorry for the late reply, got a lot of stuff going on.

Good points, and apt observations about the testing. I do not have the time to follow the deep stats, and they sometimes are above my Liberal Art's ass, so I tend to read more about the story.

I work with a company that basically ended up with an Ecuadorian employee boom instead of Mexican, it is just wild. Typical immigrant deal of bringing the hermano, cunado, etc. as they got an opportunity. The company, on a per capita basis is probably 70% 1st and 2nd generation immigrants from Ecuador.

In talking to two folks there, they can't understand the deal really. They believe the dirtiness of Guayaquil as compared to Quito, although they claim Quito has more slums, might have something to do with it. They also say the water supply in Guayaquil is filthy, terrible. Maybe something there? What they also said was that the fear of the virus has caused governmental breakdown, and that is concerning.

I would have to say, having spent most of my life in LatAm, that there is usually quite a bit of travel, and this is what doesn't make sense, between larger cities, and it is usually by bus which are crowded. I have ridden buses at different times, all over Mex, and as far down, in varying routes, to Panama. I understand Guayaquil and Quito, are no different. Why has Quito escaped a similar wrath?

But your right, the testing there is gotta be jacked up.

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I have been thinking about this in relation to social distancing in Latin America. In Spain and Italy, the social distancing during normal times among family and friends is pretty minimal and group gatherings of various sorts are pretty common. Swedes are more taciturn and their insistence on keeping things open early worked against them while other European countries adopted stay-at-home policies worked against them, IMO. Did their numbers drop because they were good at following the protocols and had no social pressure to violate those protocols? I think that is a possibility. But Swedes in the urban areas do depend on mass transit so it will be interesting to watch their numbers post-Easter to see where the trajectory goes.

Friend in Navy boot camp San Diego got the measles. Only guy of 8,000.

Stuff happens !

RGV AG said:

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I am not as smart and learned as a lot of you science and medicine guys on here, my background pales in comparison to many of the sharp doc's and scientist on here.

Noted on what you mention about speed. That is logical and makes sense. But why the difference in speed and virulence of two populations 290 miles apart?

Something is way different between the two locations.

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it could be 3-4 sick people infecting a relatively isolated community. Look into the stats from Albany GA, two guys died from Covid before all the social distancing started. The survivors were infected and they gave it to the a large chunk of the people at the funerals. A few weeks later two counties in rural GA are 3&4 in per capita death rates

Why cant dermdoc and angelag both be right? Why cant the mass transit of NYC and a potential slightly higher herd mentality in California and Washington from "earlier" exposure BOTH be the cause of NYC having higher cases?

Sarduakar said:

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Why cant dermdoc and angelag both be right? Why cant the mass transit of NYC and a potential slightly higher herd mentality in California and Washington from "earlier" exposure BOTH be the cause of NYC having higher cases?

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Agree.

Sorry boss, I have been extremely busy and just glimpsed at this thread.

I appreciate your reply and info. Correct, I understand what you are saying about Ecuador, most of the folks that I have spoken to from Ecuador are from Guayas province or the city. What you relayed is probably correct in terms of the origin and spread locally. The mystery I am still having is why the concentration and lack of dissemination between Guayas/Guayaquil and other parts of Ecuador?

Now, from what I can find online there are, or were, about 30 buses a day traveling to and from Guayaquil to Quito on a daily basis, plus private vehicles, and probably some "collective" transports as well. So probably on a daily basis, leading up to and then through the run up of cases in Guayaquil, there were probably well over 1,000 people a day going from a hot spot, in Guayaquil, to Quito. so why the vast difference in cases? Now don't mistake that sentence in form of a question as being directed to you. I am just stumped that there is not more Kung Flu in other parts of Ecuador.

There has to be something else in play here, I am not talking about the initial spread, but where and how it spread and then to not where it spread.

Something other than the virulence of the virus is in play in Guayaquil, in my dumbass opinion.

Agree again.

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it could be 3-4 sick people infecting a relatively isolated community. Look into the stats from Albany GA, two guys died from Covid before all the social distancing started. The survivors were infected and they gave it to the a large chunk of the people at the funerals. A few weeks later two counties in rural GA are 3&4 in per capita death rates

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No doubt, you make a good pooint and are right.

This is all really perplexing to me.

In Cameron, County down here, like 3 of the 5 original cases diagnosed all came from the same spring break trip to Spain. They were kids, and apparently there was several days of interaction between them and other kids before the quarantine after the return. When it came to light, there was a societal panic about the transmission. But they did not end up passing it along to many, I think one other person. I guess for privacy reasons this has been kept pretty private, but I have a close friend with a kid that ran with the other kids, and this is what was relayed.

Was he vaccinated? I assume yes being in the Navy.

I think you're over estimating the amount of daily travel by road between the two cities. There are a few flights a day but they locked things down pretty quickly. It's an 8 hour trip by car, so I would imagine it's easily 10+ on those old busses. Not exactly a daily commute.

I honestly don't think there is much more to it than Guayaquil being a hotspot that happened to have a lot of folks on vacation to Europe at the exact wrong time. Just a ****ty piece of luck.

In looking at this deal, from way above, and considering the whole mess. It is my humble opinion that there are some other factors in the transmission and contagion basis of this virus. What they could be? I have no idea. If all things were equal, this virus should be eating up Latin America, and really the only festering hotspot, knock on wood and praise the good Lord, as of yet is Guayaquil.

The tragedy taking place in NYC and the limited other cities, making it look like Spain and Italy, is not always replicating in every spot it gets to. Nobody can tell me that Guatemala City, or Baltimore, or Guadalajara (where a whole charter flight of skiers returned from Colorado with lots of positives) or Managua, or Natchez, MS, is or are light years more prepared than NYC or Guayaquil. Why isn't this deal running away in other "sheethole" places? What is the difference?

You could be right and on track with what you are relaying. But there are a lot scheduled daily buses between the two cities. And the one thing that takes place when folks get scared, is they haul ass, and I bet a bunch have hauled ass from Guayaquil.

Also, adding to your theory, it is basically the summer vacation there right now for kids, no school. So did having kids out and all about further the spread more? Possibly.

RGV AG said:

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In looking at this deal, from way above, and considering the whole mess. It is my humble opinion that there are some other factors in the transmission and contagion basis of this virus. What they could be? I have no idea. If all things were equal, this virus should be eating up Latin America, and really the only festering hotspot, knock on wood and praise the good Lord, as of yet is Guayaquil.

The tragedy taking place in NYC and the limited other cities, making it look like Spain and Italy, is not always replicating in every spot it gets to. Nobody can tell me that Guatemala City, or Baltimore, or Guadalajara (where a whole charter flight of skiers returned from Colorado with lots of positives) or Managua, or Natchez, MS, is or are light years more prepared than NYC or Guayaquil. Why isn't this deal running away in other "sheethole" places? What is the difference?

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I think we are going to see a couple of things. I think there is some genetic immunologic thing and I also think the virus has been some places earlier.

There's a crap ton of buses in general down there as it's heavily subsidized. I'm just saying that the idea of a lot of daily commuting between the two cities is impossible.

As far as getting out of town, there are a ton of rural places to flee to that are a lot closer than Quito. You really don't have a ton of family crossover either. Two very different places.

I bet you are on a correct vein with that assumption.

Early in the hubbub about the Covid virus, there was some referencing to pinkeye being a precursor or being similar in transmission or something like that. I didn't catch it all or the exact reference, but I saw it several times.

There are few medical things I have even a lowly educated opinion of. But one of the few that I do, is pinkeye. I am a pinkeye veteran, I bet that I have had it 20 times in 27 years, if not more. Why? I work in sheethole countries with lots of poor people, and those poor people tend to live in lots of unpaved and dusty places. At the wholesale level, pinkeye travels the most in dry dusty seasons, in the dust and dirt and then people rub their eyes, and then I catch it.

I have watched pinkeye run through 600 workers like a cheetah with a hotfoot, and while myself and others catch, others seem impervious to it. I have also seen one facility basically lose 60% staff within 48 hours, while the facility next door, who ate and shared common lunch and break areas, not lose a person to it. Really strange.

Something with the contagion factor and selection of affected is in play here, has to be.

Can anyone find Sweden's average any cause weekly death totals? If they are keeping that amount close to average, how is their strategy backfiring?

What would be almost as interesting would be to somehow see their restaurant / bar usage. We need an economic impact baseline as much as we do an intervention one.

showtime said:

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This thread explains why

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I started a thread about this. I've been following that team through this adventure, and their results are important.

Hospitalizations didnt surge in December or January and from that thread they say they tested over 3k samples from January and none tested positive.

First positive was from February 21st.