TXAggie2011 said:

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Y'all need to define a time period if you're going to debate death totals.

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Duncan Idaho said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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Duncan Idaho said:

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360 mm people
Best case 60% needed for herd immunity
Best case .10% death rate.
360mm *60% *.1% = 216,000

And those are crazy optimistic assumptions

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Assumptions based on incomplete data. Let's see what happens. I'm betting that less than 100,000 die in this country. If I'm wrong I'll have no problem admitting I underestimated the virus.

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I hope to God you are right but I don't think you will be.

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UTExan said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.

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Their hospital bed shortage is projected at over 12,000.

Their ICU bed shortage is almost 3300.

I don't see they did anything right.

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Dr.HeadCase said:

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The_Fox said:

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KidDoc said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is less than it is in September.

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Not to be a Debbie Downer but we do not know if you get long lasting immunity after infection. In fact the early data argues that you do not get long lasting immunity unless it is a severe infection.

Sucky virus.

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Then there is even more reason to open this back up.

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I'm pretty sure that would actually be a reason not to open the flood gates and continue social distancing.

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Duncan Idaho said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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Duncan Idaho said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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Duncan Idaho said:

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360 mm people
Best case 60% needed for herd immunity
Best case .10% death rate.
360mm *60% *.1% = 216,000

And those are crazy optimistic assumptions

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Assumptions based on incomplete data. Let's see what happens. I'm betting that less than 100,000 die in this country. If I'm wrong I'll have no problem admitting I underestimated the virus.

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I hope to God you are right but I don't think you will be.

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the medical experts who have led the charge on this so far are openly predicting 60K deaths now, why do you two think 100K is still likely?

my over-under is down to 35K at this point, subject to further downward revision.

and these models, going back to mid-march, incorporate social distancing in their algorithms, so no 'dancing in the end zone' of 'see how much it has dropped since we are social distancing' allowed.

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Those models end in July/August...not when this is over.

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SirLurksALot said:

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UTExan said:

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Stay open? Disregard all those preventive measures warnings? Sweden now has 8,419 cases and a death rate of 68 per million. I get it that people want to open their businesses up and go on with normal life, but there is some serious denial about how physically destructive this corona virus is.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

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It's far too early to say it back fired. Yes, they may have higher death rates from the virus, but they may also reach heard immunity faster. They may be getting back to normal while we are still talking about having a plan about opening.

We'll need to take a look at how this impacts their total annual death numbers for all all cases. If this virus is mostly killing people that were close to death anyway then the impact isn't as big as it would seem. We'll also have to factor in economic damage and any deaths related to that. Deaths from the virus is only one factor.

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Keegan99 said:

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A vaccine is a year away. Anyone making the argument for extending current policies until a vaccine is available is not grounded in reality.

Now, development of better therapies is a bit more sensible, but it's more wishcasting than forecasting.

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California Ag 90 said:

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UTExan said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.

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Their hospital bed shortage is projected at over 12,000.

Their ICU bed shortage is almost 3300.

I don't see they did anything right.

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IIRC you stated you are a retired investor, who has experienced portfolio value contraction since this started but otherwise are doing well.

so i think that makes you a smart dude, and one who is savvy re: accountability in modeling exercises.

given all that, i find your faith in modelers (and continued posting of their predictions) puzzling in light of how much they have missed every prediction they've made so far, at devastating expense in terms of lives upended and debt incurred for our young people.

i suspect if your financial advisors had performed like this you'd have put a boot in somebody's ass, and would likely not be referring to their further forecasts with your beloved fellow Texans.

spitballing here, but that's my guess - tell me where I'm off base.

EDIT: to reflect you are a sip (not that there's anything wrong with that), hence beloved fellow Texans.

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PJYoung said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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pocketrockets06 said:

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You realize his assumptions were basically "just a flu" fatality and infection rates right? (Arguably a worse than normal flu but not much more). And we still get 200,000+ deaths

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Yes. I believe the fatality rate has been vastly overestimated. I believe the final fatality rate will probably only be a couple of times worse than the seasonal flu. Somewhere in the neighborhood of .3% to .5%, maybe lower.

The reason I believe deaths won't reach 100,000 is because I believe in our healthcare system's ability to contain the spread preventing a massive second wave and develop improved treatments leading to less deaths. We'll see what happens.

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I havent heard anybody that believes the death rate from covid is that low explain South Korea with their extensive infection tracing/testing and top notch medical infrastructure with a close to 2% death rate at present. They are testing using cell phone and credit card data extensively like nobody else has to mostly shut it down yet their death rate is at least 10x that of normal flu.

The doctors on TexAgs describe something firsthand that is much more deadly than flu.

Our hope seems to be that there is a vast under reported untested asymptomatic population out there that would bring the death rate down to something not so scary but I cant explain S Korea.

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Ag Defense Rules said:

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Someone above said that it would be interesting for another test case for when no mitigation is done.

I believe that Mexico is doing nothing.

We will see how that works. I'm hoping they come out smelling like a rose.

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Quote:

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Mexican authorities have ordered a loosely defined lockdown closing all but essential services, such as pharmacies and supermarkets, through April 30.
"Stay home, where possible," foreign secretary Marcelo Ebrard said Monday, urging especially the elderly, the infirm, pregnant women and young children to follow the stay-at-home order.
"This will be a very difficult month," he said, adding "it will be more than a year of severe economic impact."

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Champ Bailey said:

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I don't think it's fair to compare until the next few flu/cold seasons. Sweden's method might seem foolish a few weeks in, but if they have herd immunity by next winter and we are dealing with this for the next 3-4 years, they could end up being the smart ones here.

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Dr.HeadCase said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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pocketrockets06 said:

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You realize his assumptions were basically "just a flu" fatality and infection rates right? (Arguably a worse than normal flu but not much more). And we still get 200,000+ deaths

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Yes. I believe the fatality rate has been vastly overestimated. I believe the final fatality rate will probably only be a couple of times worse than the seasonal flu. Somewhere in the neighborhood of .3% to .5%, maybe lower.

The reason I believe deaths won't reach 100,000 is because I believe in our healthcare system's ability to contain the spread preventing a massive second wave and develop improved treatments leading to less deaths. We'll see what happens.

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What are you even talking about? Our healthcare system isn't stopping the spread. They're treating the infected. The whole point of social distancing is to stop the spread, which you seem to be opposed to.

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SirLurksALot said:

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pocketrockets06 said:

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You realize his assumptions were basically "just a flu" fatality and infection rates right? (Arguably a worse than normal flu but not much more). And we still get 200,000+ deaths

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Yes. I believe the fatality rate has been vastly overestimated. I believe the final fatality rate will probably only be a couple of times worse than the seasonal flu. Somewhere in the neighborhood of .3% to .5%, maybe lower.

The reason I believe deaths won't reach 100,000 is because I believe in our healthcare system's ability to contain the spread preventing a massive second wave and develop improved treatments leading to less deaths. We'll see what happens.

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SirLurksALot said:

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PJYoung said:

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SirLurksALot said:

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pocketrockets06 said:

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You realize his assumptions were basically "just a flu" fatality and infection rates right? (Arguably a worse than normal flu but not much more). And we still get 200,000+ deaths

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Yes. I believe the fatality rate has been vastly overestimated. I believe the final fatality rate will probably only be a couple of times worse than the seasonal flu. Somewhere in the neighborhood of .3% to .5%, maybe lower.

The reason I believe deaths won't reach 100,000 is because I believe in our healthcare system's ability to contain the spread preventing a massive second wave and develop improved treatments leading to less deaths. We'll see what happens.

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I havent heard anybody that believes the death rate from covid is that low explain South Korea with their extensive infection tracing/testing and top notch medical infrastructure with a close to 2% death rate at present. They are testing using cell phone and credit card data extensively like nobody else has to mostly shut it down yet their death rate is at least 10x that of normal flu.

The doctors on TexAgs describe something firsthand that is much more deadly than flu.

Our hope seems to be that there is a vast under reported untested asymptomatic population out there that would bring the death rate down to something not so scary but I cant explain S Korea.

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Here's a study and an article looking at undetected cases. The first article is from Louisiana. The state is taking people who would later test positive, tracking back to the date those people first got symptoms, and then comparing that number to the confirmed number of cases on the same date.

On March 26th there were 2,305 confirmed cases in Louisiana, but 12,138 people who later test positive had symptoms on that date. That means the number of people that actually had the virus in Louisiana on March 26th was more than 5 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. That number also doesn't account for asymptotic cases or people with mild cases that never got tested.

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_713daede-7922-11ea-8352-b3ab70fc397c.html

The second one is out of Iceland

http://www.igmchicago.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Covid_Iceland_v10.pdf

They estimate an undetected case rate of 88.7% to 93.6%.

If you took their lowest estimate that only 11.7% of cases were detected and applied it to today's numbers this is what you would get.

Confirmed cases 501,648

Estimated cases 4,287,589

Current Deaths 18,686

Fatality rate: 0.39%

Not a doctor or mathematician so maybe I'm misunderstanding something, but I think I got it right.

I can't explain South Korea to other than to say maybe their testing and tracking program is nearly as good as we think it is.

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PJYoung said:

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The 350k figure is from March 25. They are over 500k now, close to 1% of their entire population. I dont agree that somehow S Korea has missed this huge population that would test positive when they isolated and almost completely stopped the spread in the first 2 weeks. How many have died there now, 200?

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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The 350k figure is from March 25. They are over 500k now, close to 1% of their entire population. I dont agree that somehow S Korea has missed this huge population that would test positive when they isolated and almost completely stopped the spread in the first 2 weeks. How many have died there now, 200?

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So we will agree to disagree. I think there is a large number of asymptomatic positives there. You do not.

And nobody knows yet. For our sakes, I hope I am correct.

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The_Fox said:

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Champ Bailey said:

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I don't think it's fair to compare until the next few flu/cold seasons. Sweden's method might seem foolish a few weeks in, but if they have herd immunity by next winter and we are dealing with this for the next 3-4 years, they could end up being the smart ones here.

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Look at these projections from FEMA.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6874-fema-coronavirus-projections/1e16b74eea9e302d8825/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

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Champ Bailey said:

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The_Fox said:

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Champ Bailey said:

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I don't think it's fair to compare until the next few flu/cold seasons. Sweden's method might seem foolish a few weeks in, but if they have herd immunity by next winter and we are dealing with this for the next 3-4 years, they could end up being the smart ones here.

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Look at these projections from FEMA.

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6874-fema-coronavirus-projections/1e16b74eea9e302d8825/optimized/full.pdf#page=1

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That says unmitigated though, which is not what Sweden is doing.

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DadHammer said:

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We may find out they had the best approach, we may see they didn't. I would prefer the Sweden approach of segregation/quarantine for the old and most susceptible to getting very ill. Let the rest live and work practicing safe Hygiene and social distancing.

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dermdoc said:

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PJYoung said:

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The 350k figure is from March 25. They are over 500k now, close to 1% of their entire population. I dont agree that somehow S Korea has missed this huge population that would test positive when they isolated and almost completely stopped the spread in the first 2 weeks. How many have died there now, 200?

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So we will agree to disagree. I think there is a large number of asymptomatic positives there. You do not.

And nobody knows yet. For our sakes, I hope I am correct

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