Sweden's Strategy Backfired

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In reply to SirLurksALot • 4:39p, 4/8/20
AG
Those things come about from great stress. I'm not convinced they wouldn't dramatically rise with the stress of seeing people die in much larger numbers. I still contend the economy would shut down either way.

This idea that everything would be open and people spending money while deaths sky rocket and temporary morgues open is a strange assertion.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Player To Be Named Later • 5:04p, 4/8/20
Of course not. There was always going to be some magnitude of damage. The question is, are we causing more damage than necessary? With the exception of some of the crazies, no one is arguing that we should've done nothing. The argument is that the shelter in place orders and closures of non-essential businesses may be an overreaction. There are several countries that have not taken those steps Canada and Sweden are just two examples. Because of the varied responses it will be interesting to see how everything plays out, and may help us make better decisions in the future.
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Sq 17
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6:39p, 4/8/20
how many places are having kids go to school,
Gov Noem made a name for herself questioning SIP while simultaneously recommending schools not re-open
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Sq 17 • 6:46p, 4/8/20
Sq 17 said:
how many places are having kids go to school,
Gov Noem made a name for herself questioning SIP while simultaneously recommending schools not re-open


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_201920_coronavirus_pandemic_on_education

According to Wikipedia there's only 4 countries in the world that currently have no school closures.

Edit: I don't know why the link isn't working, but Nicaragua, Belarus, Taiwan, and Turkmenistan are the only countries without any closures. Several others have partial closures.
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The_Fox
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In reply to oragator • 6:50p, 4/8/20
oragator said:
If for example we said that NY was underestimated by a factor of 10, and they were really at 7.6 percent infected roughly. They are ten fold or more away from getting to 80 percent, so 62000 deaths could be expected in NY alone. Extrapolated across the country, that would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 750k dead.
Like you if I am proven wrong, then I will actually be happy because it means I can get back to my life quicker. Initially I minimized this based on some scientists I read, but I quickly swung the other way. Initial data said regoinalized hot spot type illness. Later data said otherwise.
Having said that, death projections continue to drop. The skeptics will say that the virus is overrated in terms of lethality, others will say its because shelter in place worked. Either way, it means we will come through this better and learn from whether we can for the next time, because there will be one. I would much prefer learning by being overly cautious if that's what it turns out to be, than by not taking it seriously enough and losing a million or more people in a month or two if that was the expected outcome.

But Jmo.
That is an acceptable loss rate. Those deaths will be heavily concentrated in the 60+ and severely ill populations. Especially if you believe the cost to the economy from shelter in place will exceed $7.5 trillion.
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Exsurge Domine
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In reply to The_Fox • 6:53p, 4/8/20
The_Fox said:
oragator said:
If for example we said that NY was underestimated by a factor of 10, and they were really at 7.6 percent infected roughly. They are ten fold or more away from getting to 80 percent, so 62000 deaths could be expected in NY alone. Extrapolated across the country, that would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 750k dead.
Like you if I am proven wrong, then I will actually be happy because it means I can get back to my life quicker. Initially I minimized this based on some scientists I read, but I quickly swung the other way. Initial data said regoinalized hot spot type illness. Later data said otherwise.
Having said that, death projections continue to drop. The skeptics will say that the virus is overrated in terms of lethality, others will say its because shelter in place worked. Either way, it means we will come through this better and learn from whether we can for the next time, because there will be one. I would much prefer learning by being overly cautious if that's what it turns out to be, than by not taking it seriously enough and losing a million or more people in a month or two if that was the expected outcome.

But Jmo.
That is an acceptable loss rate. Those deaths will be heavily concentrated in the 60+ and severely ill populations. Especially if you believe the cost to the economy from shelter in place will exceed $7.5 trillion.


Everything is an acceptable loss rate if you're not in the affected demographic.
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Dddfff
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In reply to Exsurge Domine • 6:56p, 4/8/20
AG
That's an opinion stated as a fact. Take it down!
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The_Fox
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In reply to Exsurge Domine • 6:56p, 4/8/20
Exsurge Domine said:
The_Fox said:
oragator said:
If for example we said that NY was underestimated by a factor of 10, and they were really at 7.6 percent infected roughly. They are ten fold or more away from getting to 80 percent, so 62000 deaths could be expected in NY alone. Extrapolated across the country, that would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 750k dead.
Like you if I am proven wrong, then I will actually be happy because it means I can get back to my life quicker. Initially I minimized this based on some scientists I read, but I quickly swung the other way. Initial data said regoinalized hot spot type illness. Later data said otherwise.
Having said that, death projections continue to drop. The skeptics will say that the virus is overrated in terms of lethality, others will say its because shelter in place worked. Either way, it means we will come through this better and learn from whether we can for the next time, because there will be one. I would much prefer learning by being overly cautious if that's what it turns out to be, than by not taking it seriously enough and losing a million or more people in a month or two if that was the expected outcome.

But Jmo.
That is an acceptable loss rate. Those deaths will be heavily concentrated in the 60+ and severely ill populations. Especially if you believe the cost to the economy from shelter in place will exceed $7.5 trillion.


Everything is an acceptable loss rate if you're not in the affected demographic.
My parents are in the affected demographic. But concentrating losses in those over 60+ and the severely ill will have less economic consequences than losses in 20 to 50 year old age range.

And the average American life is not worth $1 million per life. That may sound cold, but it just is not.
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HouAggie2007
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7:06p, 4/8/20
20-50 year olds have 10-70 more years of economic productivity, they will be ok with a 2-3month hit
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Sq 17
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 7:08p, 4/8/20
thanks for the knowledge, i am not advocating for school opening ( does not affect my life ) if kids are not in school then it is not business as usual
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to HouAggie2007 • 7:09p, 4/8/20
HouAggie2007 said:
20-50 year olds have 10-70 more years of economic productivity, they will be ok with a 2-3month hit


For a good portion of them the "hit" is likely to last longer than a few months.
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HouAggie2007
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7:10p, 4/8/20
And it won't be their last
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The_Fox
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In reply to HouAggie2007 • 7:11p, 4/8/20
HouAggie2007 said:
20-50 year olds have 10-70 more years of economic productivity, they will be ok with a 2-3month hit
More like a 2-3 year hit and that is if we open back up in another 3-4 weeks. Then we will get hit by the second wave of the virus and there will be zero appetite to reinstitute another shelter in place. Enjoy!
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TAMUallen
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In reply to The_Fox • 7:13p, 4/8/20
AG
The_Fox said:
HouAggie2007 said:
20-50 year olds have 10-70 more years of economic productivity, they will be ok with a 2-3month hit
More like a 2-3 year hit and that is if we open back up in another 3-4 weeks. Then we will get hit by the second wave of the virus and there will be zero appetite to reinstitute another shelter in place. Enjoy!


Lighten up Francis
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The_Fox
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In reply to TAMUallen • 7:15p, 4/8/20
TAMUallen said:
The_Fox said:
HouAggie2007 said:
20-50 year olds have 10-70 more years of economic productivity, they will be ok with a 2-3month hit
More like a 2-3 year hit and that is if we open back up in another 3-4 weeks. Then we will get hit by the second wave of the virus and there will be zero appetite to reinstitute another shelter in place. Enjoy!


Lighten up Francis
I'm fine brother. I am financially able to watch this idiocy with detached amusement. I just find the fear surrounding this virus surprising.
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UTExan
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1:31p, 4/10/20
Latest IHME estimates for total CV19 deaths by August 4:

Sweden: 13,259 (pop. 10.23 million)

Norway: 925 (pop. 5.368 million)

Romania:774 (pop. 19.41 million)

Poland: 2,369 (pop. 37.97 million)

Hungary: 413 (pop. 9.733 million)

Denmark: 1,575 (pop. 5.603 million)

Germany: 7,080 (pop. 83.02 million)
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
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California Ag 90
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In reply to UTExan • 1:33p, 4/10/20
AG
UTExan said:
Latest IHME estimates for total CV19 deaths by August 4:

Sweden: 13,259 (pop. 10.23 million)

Norway: 925 (pop. 5.368 million)

Romania:774 (pop. 19.41 million)

Poland: 2,369 (pop. 37.97 million)

Hungary: 413 (pop. 9.733 million)

Denmark: 1,575 (pop. 5.603 million)

Germany: 7,080 (pop. 83.02 million)
given IHME track record for predictions thus far, this will also make for an interesting comparative come 12/31.

We're from North California, and South Alabam
and little towns all around this land...
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to UTExan • 1:38p, 4/10/20
UTExan said:
Latest IHME estimates for total CV19 deaths by August 4:

Sweden: 13,259 (pop. 10.23 million)

Norway: 925 (pop. 5.368 million)

Romania:774 (pop. 19.41 million)

Poland: 2,369 (pop. 37.97 million)

Hungary: 413 (pop. 9.733 million)

Denmark: 1,575 (pop. 5.603 million)

Germany: 7,080 (pop. 83.02 million)


UK 37,494 (pop 66.65 million)
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UTExan
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1:39p, 4/10/20
So Sweden might only have 10,000 deaths? Funny that Germany, with almost 8 times the population has about half the deaths.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
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Keegan99
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1:46p, 4/10/20
AG
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is less than it is in September.
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UTExan
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In reply to Keegan99 • 1:49p, 4/10/20
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.


Their hospital bed shortage is projected at over 12,000.

Their ICU bed shortage is almost 3300.

I don't see they did anything right.
“If you’re going to have crime it should at least be organized crime”
-Havelock Vetinari
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to Keegan99 • 1:52p, 4/10/20
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.


That isn't true. This was the most compelling argument but was not the only.

The other arguments include slowing the spread to buy time for a vaccine and/or effective treatment.

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SirLurksALot
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In reply to UTExan • 1:56p, 4/10/20
UTExan said:
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.


Their hospital bed shortage is projected at over 12,000.

Their ICU bed shortage is almost 3300.

I don't see they did anything right.


Deaths from the virus are only one factor. If we look at total annual death rates for all natural causes in Sweden at the end of the year and don't see a significant increase then is reasonable to believe a lot of the people dying are people that would've died anyway. Thus the impact of those deaths is significantly less. We'd also have to asses if Sweden has a better economic outcome and thereby suffered less negative consequences as a result of the economic issues.
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Keegan99
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 1:58p, 4/10/20
AG
A vaccine is a year away. Anyone making the argument for extending current policies until a vaccine is available is not grounded in reality.

Now, development of better therapies is a bit more sensible, but it's more wishcasting than forecasting.
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The_Fox
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 2:00p, 4/10/20
Duncan Idaho said:
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.


That isn't true. This was the most compelling argument but was not the only.

The other arguments include slowing the spread to buy time for a vaccine and/or effective treatment.

That could take a year or more if ever. That plan is not economically viable.
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Keegan99
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In reply to UTExan • 2:01p, 4/10/20
AG
Projected.

Let's see what happens.

I recall projections for massive ICU shortages in the USA as recently as three weeks ago (circa March 20th), when the USA was already engaged in aggressive policies, and the models should have built those policies into said projections.


(Edit: On March 27th - just two weeks ago and well into the current set of public policies - Cuomo was still predicting NY needing 40,000 ventilators and 140,000 hospital beds because "facts" and "data".

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/cuomo-refutes-trump-insists-ny-needs-up-to-40000-ventilators-i-operate-on-facts.html)
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to The_Fox • 2:31p, 4/10/20
The_Fox said:
Duncan Idaho said:
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.


That isn't true. This was the most compelling argument but was not the only.

The other arguments include slowing the spread to buy time for a vaccine and/or effective treatment.

That could take a year or more if ever. That plan is not economically viable.

I didn't say that you had to stay on lockdown until a vaccine is found. I said that doing this is buying time for a vaccine to be found.

This has shifted the country's culture and will slow the spread even as the country opens up.

Hopefully it buys us enough time that only a few hundred thousand die and not millions that would have resulted from taking a similar path to Sweden.
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dreyOO
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In reply to Keegan99 • 2:41p, 4/10/20
Agreed. Flattening the curve only makes sense to avoid the overrunning of healthcare facilities. But as contagious as this thing is, everyone is bound to be exposed. So....why not?

Now, if I were older with ailments and lived on a nice piece of land, I might decide to keep my distance while the treatment techniques evolve. But again, more of a personal choice.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 2:51p, 4/10/20
Duncan Idaho said:
The_Fox said:
Duncan Idaho said:
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is different than September.


That isn't true. This was the most compelling argument but was not the only.

The other arguments include slowing the spread to buy time for a vaccine and/or effective treatment.

That could take a year or more if ever. That plan is not economically viable.

I didn't say that you had to stay on lockdown until a vaccine is found. I said that doing this is buying time for a vaccine to be found.

This has shifted the country's culture and will slow the spread even as the country opens up.

Hopefully it buys us enough time that only a few hundred thousand die and not millions that would have resulted from taking a similar path to Sweden.


Hundreds of thousands will not die.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 2:57p, 4/10/20
360 mm people
Best case 60% needed for herd immunity
Best case .10% death rate.
360mm *60% *.1% = 216,000

And those are crazy optimistic assumptions
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KidDoc
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In reply to Keegan99 • 2:57p, 4/10/20
AG
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is less than it is in September.
Not to be a Debbie Downer but we do not know if you get long lasting immunity after infection. In fact the early data argues that you do not get long lasting immunity unless it is a severe infection.

Sucky virus.

No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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The_Fox
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In reply to KidDoc • 3:00p, 4/10/20
KidDoc said:
Keegan99 said:
Again, unless and until Sweden's hospitals are overrun, they are taking the correct course.

The sole argument for flattening the curve is to prevent impossible demand requirements on the healthcare system that results in an increased fatality rate due to degradation of care.


A person getting sick now vs in September only has a different case outcome due to public policy if the care availability now is less than it is in September.
Not to be a Debbie Downer but we do not know if you get long lasting immunity after infection. In fact the early data argues that you do not get long lasting immunity unless it is a severe infection.

Sucky virus.

Then there is even more reason to open this back up.
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SirLurksALot
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In reply to Duncan Idaho • 3:00p, 4/10/20
Duncan Idaho said:
360 mm people
Best case 60% needed for herd immunity
Best case .10% death rate.
360mm *60% *.1% = 216,000

And those are crazy optimistic assumptions


Assumptions based on incomplete data. Let's see what happens. I'm betting that less than 100,000 die in this country. If I'm wrong I'll have no problem admitting I underestimated the virus.
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Duncan Idaho
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 3:05p, 4/10/20
SirLurksALot said:
Duncan Idaho said:
360 mm people
Best case 60% needed for herd immunity
Best case .10% death rate.
360mm *60% *.1% = 216,000

And those are crazy optimistic assumptions


Assumptions based on incomplete data. Let's see what happens. I'm betting that less than 100,000 die in this country. If I'm wrong I'll have no problem admitting I underestimated the virus.

I hope to God you are right but I don't think you will be.

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TXAggie2011
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In reply to SirLurksALot • 3:05p, 4/10/20
AG
Y'all need to define a time period if you're going to debate death totals.
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