UTExan said:

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Stay open? Disregard all those preventive measures warnings? Sweden now has 8,419 cases and a death rate of 68 per million. I get it that people want to open their businesses up and go on with normal life, but there is some serious denial about how physically destructive this corona virus is.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

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It's far too early to say it back fired. Yes, they may have higher death rates from the virus, but they may also reach heard immunity faster. They may be getting back to normal while we are still talking about having a plan about opening.

We'll need to take a look at how this impacts their total annual death numbers for all all cases. If this virus is mostly killing people that were close to death anyway then the impact isn't as big as it would seem. We'll also have to factor in economic damage and any deaths related to that. Deaths from the virus is only one factor.

PJYoung said:

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Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

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It was inevitable. The "just the flu"ers were of course going to pat themselves on the back for being "right" after the measures we took stopped this thing from spreading out of control.

BowSowy said:

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PJYoung said:

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Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

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It was inevitable. The "just the flu"ers were of course going to pat themselves on the back for being "right" after the measures we took stopped this thing from spreading out of control.

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Same way that group wants to 100% definitively prove that every death being counted for the virus was exclusively from the virus (no pre-existing conditions, even if undetected before) and that they weren't "old", cause apparently anyone over 65 or so should be ready to die anyhow.....yet I'm sure as we move forward, what constitutes a "poor economy related death" will be the most wide open group of criteria ever.

SirLurksALot said:

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UTExan said:

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Stay open? Disregard all those preventive measures warnings? Sweden now has 8,419 cases and a death rate of 68 per million. I get it that people want to open their businesses up and go on with normal life, but there is some serious denial about how physically destructive this corona virus is.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

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It's far too early to say it back fired. Yes, they may have higher death rates from the virus, but they may also reach heard immunity faster. They may be getting back to normal while we are still talking about having a plan about opening.

We'll need to take a look at how this impacts their total annual death numbers for all all cases. If this virus is mostly killing people that were close to death anyway then the impact isn't as big as it would seem. We'll also have to factor in economic damage and any deaths related to that. Deaths from the virus is only one factor.

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This is the right answer.

The UW model effectively ends in August. But we should expect more people to die in the long run as we go back to work and what not as we build towards herd immunity.

Sweden is going to get to herd immunity much quicker and so the next waves will be smaller and smaller.

PJYoung said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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PJYoung said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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your statistics belie your comments.

i would wager that on 12/31 if we compare Sweden's response to the rest of the world, in terms of per capita casualties AND impact on GDP/economic damage and its impact on public health, Sweden will be no worse than par on COVID casualties, and exceptional on GDP.

the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

our emotion laden public health policy is doing grave damage to public trust, which was already fragile.

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Literally almost every government in the world is doing what we have been doing and there are several that have been much more strict than we have been.

And do you really not think Sweden is about to go to a strict lock down like everybody else?

Not to mention, lock down or not, when the deaths mount up the economic damage is going to be done. People aren't going to go to concerts or movie theaters or restaurants or bars when they are fearful that they are putting their health in danger.

Have you seen Ecuador? They are running out of burial plots. (they have officially said only 220 have died of the virus so far)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/ecuador-builds-emergency-cemeteries-amid-rising-deaths-coronavirus-cases-n1179091

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let's let the data tell the tale come 12/31.

we are here now because social media has made logic-driven public policy impossible - no politician, regardless of nation or political system, can withstand the howling mob that erupts over any death or anecdote like graves in Equador - even though EVERY public policy decision in health matters results in deaths (medicare, medicaid, opiate availability, vaccination requirements, the list goes on and on and every one has a statistical impact on death rates).

we are counting any coincident death with COVID as COVID. we are far below model projections regardless of geography. the poverty we are creating will kill people. those are just data-driven realities as of today. perhaps that will change for the worse - i hope not, but we will certainly see in time.

and no, i don't think Sweden will lock down. let's talk on 12/31.

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I agree that time will tell. I don't agree that Sweden will hang tough as the deaths mount.

Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

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The problem with this (and I'm not actually arguing against social distancing, shut downs, etc.) is that there is little counterfactual data available at this point. So a model for a given disaster could say "All 350 million Americans will die if we don't do X", then when only 100,000 die after we do X, one can say "see, it worked", when in reality it could have been only 200,000 dead without doing X for all we know (or 300 million).

A number drastically lower than the projection could mean that the solution worked, or that the projection was wildly overstated. The truth is probably somewhere in between, but it's hard to say to what degree without a counterfactual scenario. Sweden could be a good test case.

California Ag 90 said:

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your statistics belie your comments.

i would wager that on 12/31 if we compare Sweden's response to the rest of the world, in terms of per capita casualties AND impact on GDP/economic damage and its impact on public health, Sweden will be no worse than par on COVID casualties, and exceptional on GDP.

the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

our emotion laden public health policy is doing grave damage to public trust, which was already fragile.

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I am glad you weren't around for the Black Plague.

No one will or should do anything close to what it takes to get to herd immunity before there's a vaccine or truly viable treatment. Herd immunity requires a minimum of 80 percent of the population with antibodies, some say it's over 90 with this.
Start doing the math on the carnage that would bring and it's pretty dang scary. NY's infection rate is less than 1 percent and they have 6200 dead. Even if they are understating by several factors it's not where anyone will be willing to go, nor should they,

Sweden: Achieve herd immunity without the aid of vaccines.

Me: You first.


Edit: There's just way too many experts warning against trying to achieve herd immunity with what we do and probably more importantly, don't know yet about this thing.

UTExan said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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your statistics belie your comments.

i would wager that on 12/31 if we compare Sweden's response to the rest of the world, in terms of per capita casualties AND impact on GDP/economic damage and its impact on public health, Sweden will be no worse than par on COVID casualties, and exceptional on GDP.

the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

our emotion laden public health policy is doing grave damage to public trust, which was already fragile.

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I am glad you weren't around for the Black Plague.

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and there you go. comparing this to the black plague.

thanks for making my point about emotion over logic.

PJYoung said:

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I agree that time will tell. I don't agree that Sweden will hang tough as the deaths mount.

Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

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the models we are undershooting fully incorporated social distancing in their projections.

i am social distancing. if i lived in sweden, i wouldn't hang in bars or restaurants the way they are, by choice - i'm also a creature of emotion and i've been impacted by the stories of impending doom like most of us.

Swedes aren't dumb, any more than Americans are dumb. they make individual choices based on information available.

it is the mandatory shutdowns that are the over-reach given the devastating impact they will have on public health for years to come.

BowSowy said:

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PJYoung said:

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Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

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It was inevitable. The "just the flu"ers were of course going to pat themselves on the back for being "right" after the measures we took stopped this thing from spreading out of control.

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and there's another one. i'm not a 'just the flu-er'.

another emotive post drawing stark lines between 'you're an idiot who thinks this is the flu' vs 'its the black plague'.

nobody should pat themselves on the back when this is over in America. the impact is only beginning and it is going to be very grim.

my view, again to be ratified on 12/31, is that this is a public health policy debacle. time will tell.

People keep referencing herd immunity, but from most of what I've seen, the medical community doesn't seem to think that is likely to happen with this thing, It seems far more likely that this is something we deal with for the next 12-18 months until we have an actual vaccine - not saying every month can or will be like this one has been regarding "shut down" of the economy, but folks acting like we could just go about our normal life, see another few tens of thousands die and then be magically "immune" may be entertaining an unlikely outcome.

California Ag 90 said:

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BowSowy said:

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PJYoung said:

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Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

---

This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

---

It was inevitable. The "just the flu"ers were of course going to pat themselves on the back for being "right" after the measures we took stopped this thing from spreading out of control.

---

and there's another one. i'm not a 'just the flu-er'.

another emotive post drawing stark lines between 'you're an idiot who thinks this is the flu' vs 'its the black plague'.

nobody should pat themselves on the back when this is over in America. the impact is only beginning and it is going to be very grim.

my view, again to be ratified on 12/31, is that this is a public health policy debacle. time will tell.

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I think I will listen to the infectious disease docs on this one. I have a microbiologist in my family with extensive experience in medical and hospital labs who informs my opinions on this disease as well as friends in the local medical community and they universally believe the Swedish policy to be ill-informed. But the follow on advantage of reacting with such caution to this pandemic is that another one, equally or more devastating, is bound to occur. So if cheerleading and "emotional reactions" motivate people to acquire food, supplies and most of all knowledge, I am good with that.

Sweden's cases have grown more slowly despite their different policy as 1) Not as many foreign travelers there (they don't have hub airports like Amsterdam, Sweden is an end destination) and 2) In the wintertime it's freaking cold and dark and people aren't out as much. They only have a couple of hours of sunlight per day during the winter.

Things change in April, when the weather starts to warm up and people that have been enduring a cold, hard winter are ready to get out and enjoy some better weather.

They are great people and I really love their culture and decision to try something different (though not sure I agree), but ultimately I think they will have to change and get in line with the rest of the world.

If for example we said that NY was underestimated by a factor of 10, and they were really at 7.6 percent infected roughly. They are ten fold or more away from getting to 80 percent, so 62000 deaths could be expected in NY alone. Extrapolated across the country, that would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 750k dead.
Like you if I am proven wrong, then I will actually be happy because it means I can get back to my life quicker. Initially I minimized this based on some scientists I read, but I quickly swung the other way. Initial data said regoinalized hot spot type illness. Later data said otherwise.
Having said that, death projections continue to drop. The skeptics will say that the virus is overrated in terms of lethality, others will say its because shelter in place worked. Either way, it means we will come through this better and learn from whether we can for the next time, because there will be one. I would much prefer learning by being overly cautious if that's what it turns out to be, than by not taking it seriously enough and losing a million or more people in a month or two if that was the expected outcome.

But Jmo.

Because unless the under 35's aren't being infected right now, it's already accounted for in the overall death rate there. It's of course not a perfect extrapolation, but It's a good case study generally for the country.

As an example, Texas has tested 96k people, and around 9k have come back positive, and that's testing of high risk groups, mostly people already displaying symptoms.
We aren't remotely close.

California Ag 90 said:

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the data, when compiled after this is over, will be objective and undeniable, unlike the public commentary since this outbreak started..

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ZERO chance the data will be undeniable. The data is horribly problematic. both sides will continue to argue if the response was warranted and effective / overkill it is only the flu. Way too much news and information that feeds the confirmation bias. Very few people are going to change their mind

The primary objective of US policies ("flattening the curve") is to avoid additional deaths due to excessive utilization of healthcare resources (hospitals being "overrun").

That is what occurred in Italy. And Wuhan.

Sweden's policy is only harmful if that occurs. Otherwise they're just compressing the time frame.


Now, does anyone have any evidence that Sweden's healthcare system has reached capacity for treatment? Maybe that will happen. Maybe it won't. But until such evidence exists, Sweden's policy cannot be deemed a failure.

UTExan said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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BowSowy said:

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PJYoung said:

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Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

---

It was inevitable. The "just the flu"ers were of course going to pat themselves on the back for being "right" after the measures we took stopped this thing from spreading out of control.

---

and there's another one. i'm not a 'just the flu-er'.

another emotive post drawing stark lines between 'you're an idiot who thinks this is the flu' vs 'its the black plague'.

nobody should pat themselves on the back when this is over in America. the impact is only beginning and it is going to be very grim.

my view, again to be ratified on 12/31, is that this is a public health policy debacle. time will tell.

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I think I will listen to the infectious disease docs on this one. I have a microbiologist in my family with extensive experience in medical and hospital labs who informs my opinions on this disease as well as friends in the local medical community and they universally believe the Swedish policy to be ill-informed. But the follow on advantage of reacting with such caution to this pandemic is that another one, equally or more devastating, is bound to occur. So if cheerleading and "emotional reactions" motivate people to acquire food, supplies and most of all knowledge, I am good with that.

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infectious disease docs, heroes all, should not make public health policy. they should provide critical input into it, but just that - input. public policy in health matters results in death - always. choices get made that impact death rates in every federal budget, in every state budget, in every local budget, every year.

medical doctors (thank god) put avoidance of any death as their over riding priority. if we put public health policy in their hands on all matters we would 'never shake hands again', stay 'locked down for eighteen more months', and 'wear masks forever' (all recent statements from very learned erudite medical doctors).

i would wager you are a salaried professional undergoing little to no direct financial impact from this as yet as you work from home. just like myself.

but around you everywhere lives are being torn apart from job loss, loss of health insurance, etc. domestic violence, alcoholism, drug abuse, are all skyrocketing, and its only beginning.

yet you think that that is a worthwhile price to pay if we succeed in scaring everyone into 'being ready' for the next pandemic, regardless of how much we may have missed the boat on this particular crisis due to emotional versus logic driven decision processes in public health policy.

interesting.

KidDoc said:

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It will be interesting to look at per capita rates and CFR over the next 4-6 weeks with aggressive interventions like USA finally took vs Sweden basically doing nothing.

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We'll likely be able to do this for the USA with Ohio vs a number of other states in 10-14 days since Ohio shut everything down around 3/15.

Florida was behind Ohio last week but now has the triple the amount of Ohio.

Ohio is 7th in population and presently 17th in cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

California Ag 90 said:

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UTExan said:

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California Ag 90 said:

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BowSowy said:

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PJYoung said:

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Quote:

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we are far below model projections regardless of geography.

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This is the part that is funny to me. The same people that have always been against the social distancing and economic shutdowns are the first to say the deaths from this virus are falling far short of the model projections - ignoring the fact that our economic shutdowns and social distancing (that they have always been against) are the very reason the virus hasn't been as deadly as first projected by those models.

---

It was inevitable. The "just the flu"ers were of course going to pat themselves on the back for being "right" after the measures we took stopped this thing from spreading out of control.

---

and there's another one. i'm not a 'just the flu-er'.

another emotive post drawing stark lines between 'you're an idiot who thinks this is the flu' vs 'its the black plague'.

nobody should pat themselves on the back when this is over in America. the impact is only beginning and it is going to be very grim.

my view, again to be ratified on 12/31, is that this is a public health policy debacle. time will tell.

---

I think I will listen to the infectious disease docs on this one. I have a microbiologist in my family with extensive experience in medical and hospital labs who informs my opinions on this disease as well as friends in the local medical community and they universally believe the Swedish policy to be ill-informed. But the follow on advantage of reacting with such caution to this pandemic is that another one, equally or more devastating, is bound to occur. So if cheerleading and "emotional reactions" motivate people to acquire food, supplies and most of all knowledge, I am good with that.

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infectious disease docs, heroes all, should not make public health policy. they should provide critical input into it, but just that - input. public policy in health matters results in death - always. choices get made that impact death rates in every federal budget, in every state budget, in every local budget, every year.

medical doctors (thank god) put avoidance of any death as their over riding priority. if we put public health policy in their hands on all matters we would 'never shake hands again', stay 'locked down for eighteen more months', and 'wear masks forever' (all recent statements from very learned erudite medical doctors).

i would wager you are a salaried professional undergoing little to no direct financial impact from this as yet as you work from home. just like myself.

but around you everywhere lives are being torn apart from job loss, loss of health insurance, etc. domestic violence, alcoholism, drug abuse, are all skyrocketing, and its only beginning.

yet you think that that is a worthwhile price to pay if we succeed in scaring everyone into 'being ready' for the next pandemic, regardless of how much we may have missed the boat on this particular crisis due to emotional versus logic driven decision processes in public health policy.

interesting.

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Investor and retired. I have lost value in my portfolio for certain. But that is the nature of investment and unless civilization collapses, the economy will roar back again. Risking the health of workers who go back to work too soon is needless risk and there are jobs available in every step of the consumer supply/logistics chain (thank goodness for industrial REITs). The USPS is even hiring at $17/hr, which beats what a restaurant server makes under current conditions. Same for every supermarket chain. There are jobs out there for people that need them. They may not be ideal, but they help pay the bills.

California Ag 90 said:

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i would wager you are a salaried professional undergoing little to no direct financial impact from this as yet as you work from home. just like myself.

but around you everywhere lives are being torn apart from job loss, loss of health insurance, etc. domestic violence, alcoholism, drug abuse, are all skyrocketing, and its only beginning.

yet you think that that is a worthwhile price to pay if we succeed in scaring everyone into 'being ready' for the next pandemic, regardless of how much we may have missed the boat on this particular crisis due to emotional versus logic driven decision processes in public health policy.

interesting.

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Please post concrete stats to those assertions. Otherwise, you are also guilty of scaring everyone. I find it unlikely that you'll find stats this early in to show those things "sky rocketing"

I keep hearing people say that, but yet, listening to my scanner at work, I don't hear us going to any more domestics, thefts, etc than we always have been. Could it potentially happen? Sure. Is it already "sky rocketing"? Not from my personal experience so far.

if Brazos county was having a NOLA outbreak ,nobody would be going to restaurants, bars , or movies. So the screeching halt to the economy imo happens either way. If a NOLA level outbreak is going would your average dental hygenist report to work. Would old people go ahead with elective procedures eg knee replacements.