Pediatric clinic schedule has dropped and my stress is paradoxically much lower than it was even 14 days ago when I knew this disaster was coming and it was still largely being called "just the flu".
Anyway I have some free time now while waiting for patient calls so I wanted to explore the current evidence for "Herd Immunity" which seems to be the new hot phrase by the media.
First definition:
the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.
------------------------------------
Now what do we have that is "real" about COVID? Not much since we have only know about it for roughly three months so any predictions of long term herd immunity is conjecture. Here is one ok page that explores the question:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-recovery-what-happens-after-covid19/
4. How long might immunity to COVID-19 last?
"If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus," Dr. Keiji ***uda, director of Hong Kong University's School of Public Health, told The LA Times. "To get reinfected again when you're in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right." With many past viruses, immunity can last years but the reinfection question shows the bigger picture surrounding COVID-19 remains cloudy.
One thing that might help clarify the immunity question is developing serological tests for antibodies to SARS-CoV2, the COVID-19 pathogen. This would not only provide more information about individual immune-system responses, but also able researchers to more accurately identify the total population affected by detecting people who might have slipped through the net after recovery. No country currently has confirmed access to such a test, according to The Guardian. But numerous scientists around the world including one in Singapore that has claimed a successful trial are working on them.
Here is an NPR article about it : https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus
Here are some of the highlights from that article:
Researchers do know that reinfection is an issue with the four seasonal coronaviruses that cause about 10 to 30% of common colds. These coronaviruses seem to be able to sicken people again and again, even though people have been exposed to them since childhood.
In studies, human volunteers who agreed to be experimentally inoculated with a seasonal coronavirus showed that even people with preexisting antibodies could still get infected and have symptoms.
-------------------------------------
So right now, in my professional opinion, I think relying on herd immunity is a false hope based on extrapolation of data from well studied coronavirus infections. I hope I am wrong about this but the medical community and government need to not hinge their plans on this and push more for infection control, treatment algorithms, and vaccine.
edit: spelling
Anyway I have some free time now while waiting for patient calls so I wanted to explore the current evidence for "Herd Immunity" which seems to be the new hot phrase by the media.
First definition:
the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.
------------------------------------
Now what do we have that is "real" about COVID? Not much since we have only know about it for roughly three months so any predictions of long term herd immunity is conjecture. Here is one ok page that explores the question:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-recovery-what-happens-after-covid19/
4. How long might immunity to COVID-19 last?
"If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus," Dr. Keiji ***uda, director of Hong Kong University's School of Public Health, told The LA Times. "To get reinfected again when you're in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right." With many past viruses, immunity can last years but the reinfection question shows the bigger picture surrounding COVID-19 remains cloudy.
One thing that might help clarify the immunity question is developing serological tests for antibodies to SARS-CoV2, the COVID-19 pathogen. This would not only provide more information about individual immune-system responses, but also able researchers to more accurately identify the total population affected by detecting people who might have slipped through the net after recovery. No country currently has confirmed access to such a test, according to The Guardian. But numerous scientists around the world including one in Singapore that has claimed a successful trial are working on them.
Here is an NPR article about it : https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus
Here are some of the highlights from that article:
Researchers do know that reinfection is an issue with the four seasonal coronaviruses that cause about 10 to 30% of common colds. These coronaviruses seem to be able to sicken people again and again, even though people have been exposed to them since childhood.
In studies, human volunteers who agreed to be experimentally inoculated with a seasonal coronavirus showed that even people with preexisting antibodies could still get infected and have symptoms.
-------------------------------------
So right now, in my professional opinion, I think relying on herd immunity is a false hope based on extrapolation of data from well studied coronavirus infections. I hope I am wrong about this but the medical community and government need to not hinge their plans on this and push more for infection control, treatment algorithms, and vaccine.
edit: spelling
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.