Herd Immunity

4,448 Views | 15 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Reveille
KidDoc
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Pediatric clinic schedule has dropped and my stress is paradoxically much lower than it was even 14 days ago when I knew this disaster was coming and it was still largely being called "just the flu".

Anyway I have some free time now while waiting for patient calls so I wanted to explore the current evidence for "Herd Immunity" which seems to be the new hot phrase by the media.

First definition:
the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.
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Now what do we have that is "real" about COVID? Not much since we have only know about it for roughly three months so any predictions of long term herd immunity is conjecture. Here is one ok page that explores the question:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/coronavirus-recovery-what-happens-after-covid19/

4. How long might immunity to COVID-19 last?
"If you get an infection, your immune system is revved up against that virus," Dr. Keiji ***uda, director of Hong Kong University's School of Public Health, told The LA Times. "To get reinfected again when you're in that situation would be quite unusual unless your immune system was not functioning right." With many past viruses, immunity can last years but the reinfection question shows the bigger picture surrounding COVID-19 remains cloudy.
One thing that might help clarify the immunity question is developing serological tests for antibodies to SARS-CoV2, the COVID-19 pathogen. This would not only provide more information about individual immune-system responses, but also able researchers to more accurately identify the total population affected by detecting people who might have slipped through the net after recovery. No country currently has confirmed access to such a test, according to The Guardian. But numerous scientists around the world including one in Singapore that has claimed a successful trial are working on them.


Here is an NPR article about it : https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/20/819038431/do-you-get-immunity-after-recovering-from-a-case-of-coronavirus

Here are some of the highlights from that article:
Researchers do know that reinfection is an issue with the four seasonal coronaviruses that cause about 10 to 30% of common colds. These coronaviruses seem to be able to sicken people again and again, even though people have been exposed to them since childhood.

In studies, human volunteers who agreed to be experimentally inoculated with a seasonal coronavirus showed that even people with preexisting antibodies could still get infected and have symptoms.

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So right now, in my professional opinion, I think relying on herd immunity is a false hope based on extrapolation of data from well studied coronavirus infections. I hope I am wrong about this but the medical community and government need to not hinge their plans on this and push more for infection control, treatment algorithms, and vaccine.

edit: spelling
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Ranger222
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The This Week in Virology group a few episodes back discussed this with Ralph Baric from UNC, and he stated that there were studies done on antibody titer against coronaviruses, and while they could detect titers immediately after and until two months post infection, the titers where then at or below the limits of detection starting at two months and after. So they could only detect "protection" two months after you were infected.

The macaque paper got a lot of play when it first came out showing protection, but they challenged the animals less than 1 month after they were first infected (or else there would have been no immediate paper....). I think its way to early to determine whether there will be sufficient protection yet or not. Those studies with proper timelines will take months/years to fully determine.
Ranger222
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Quick literature search on SARS gives two different answers -

Quote:


Seroconversion was observed in 13 of the 14 patients either by anti-viral IgG (FIA) or by antigen capturing anti-N protein assay by 14 days after the onset of the symptoms. In contrast, anti-viral IgM was detectable only in 10 patients by14 days, and in 13 patients by 30 days after the onset of the symptoms. By comparison, anti-viral IgG and anti-N protein antibodies were detected in all the patients from 30 to 210 days after the onset of the symptoms. Antiviral IgM was shown to be negative in 4, 8, 12 and all 14 patients by day 60,120,180 and 210 days post disease onset, respectively. These results may indicate that antiviral IgG may correlate better with viral neutralization. Also, the recombinant nucleocaspid protein based antigen-capturing ELISA was at least as sensitive as the anti-viral IgG(IFA) assay.

Anti-viral IgG and anti-Nucleocaspid antibodies were detectable earlier than anti-viral IgM antibodies, and the highest antibody titer was reached at 120 days (anti-viral IgG) and 180 days (anti-N protein) after the onset of the symptoms. The titer decreased slowly after that time point, and high titers of antibodies were observed in all patients 210 days after the onset of symptoms. Geometric mean values of the antibodies were shown in Fig. 1. In contrast, a significantly lower titer of anti-viral IgM antibody was found with a peak titer at 30 days. Moreover, anti-viral IgM could not be detected in any of the 14 patients 210 days after the onset of the symptoms.
Source 1

Quote:


Total IgGAM antibody is the antibody detectable earliest (mean, 14.2 days; range, 9 to 19 days) in patients with SARS. Of the subclass-specific assays, IgM antibodies were the earliest antibody to be detectable (mean, 16.6 days; range, 13 to 22 days). Although IgM antibody titers declined significantly during the first 7 months after infection, we demonstrated that SARS CoV IgM remains detectable in 63.6% (7/11) of patients for at least 7 months. It was previously reported that IgM antibody detected by ELISA became undetectable by 11 weeks after onset of illness (15). These differences in results may be related to differences to the sensitivity of the methods used for the serology tests.

In contrast, neutralizing antibody titers and IF IgGAM and IgG levels seem stable over the first 7 months postinfection. In addition, there was no significant difference in the kinetics of the appearance of the antibody responses between patients who survive or die.

Source 2


In summary IgG seems detectable months after infection, some disagreement on whether IgM remains detectable but the trend is that is does decrease over time
Tmoneyag99
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no circle cross.


:p


Jk thank you for this. It's helpful.
KidDoc
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Ranger222 said:

Quick literature search on SARS gives two different answers -

Quote:


Seroconversion was observed in 13 of the 14 patients either by anti-viral IgG (FIA) or by antigen capturing anti-N protein assay by 14 days after the onset of the symptoms. In contrast, anti-viral IgM was detectable only in 10 patients by14 days, and in 13 patients by 30 days after the onset of the symptoms. By comparison, anti-viral IgG and anti-N protein antibodies were detected in all the patients from 30 to 210 days after the onset of the symptoms. Antiviral IgM was shown to be negative in 4, 8, 12 and all 14 patients by day 60,120,180 and 210 days post disease onset, respectively. These results may indicate that antiviral IgG may correlate better with viral neutralization. Also, the recombinant nucleocaspid protein based antigen-capturing ELISA was at least as sensitive as the anti-viral IgG(IFA) assay.

Anti-viral IgG and anti-Nucleocaspid antibodies were detectable earlier than anti-viral IgM antibodies, and the highest antibody titer was reached at 120 days (anti-viral IgG) and 180 days (anti-N protein) after the onset of the symptoms. The titer decreased slowly after that time point, and high titers of antibodies were observed in all patients 210 days after the onset of symptoms. Geometric mean values of the antibodies were shown in Fig. 1. In contrast, a significantly lower titer of anti-viral IgM antibody was found with a peak titer at 30 days. Moreover, anti-viral IgM could not be detected in any of the 14 patients 210 days after the onset of the symptoms.
Source 1

Quote:


Total IgGAM antibody is the antibody detectable earliest (mean, 14.2 days; range, 9 to 19 days) in patients with SARS. Of the subclass-specific assays, IgM antibodies were the earliest antibody to be detectable (mean, 16.6 days; range, 13 to 22 days). Although IgM antibody titers declined significantly during the first 7 months after infection, we demonstrated that SARS CoV IgM remains detectable in 63.6% (7/11) of patients for at least 7 months. It was previously reported that IgM antibody detected by ELISA became undetectable by 11 weeks after onset of illness (15). These differences in results may be related to differences to the sensitivity of the methods used for the serology tests.

In contrast, neutralizing antibody titers and IF IgGAM and IgG levels seem stable over the first 7 months postinfection. In addition, there was no significant difference in the kinetics of the appearance of the antibody responses between patients who survive or die.

Source 2


In summary IgG seems detectable months after infection, some disagreement on whether IgM remains detectable but the trend is that is does decrease over time
Thanks for the data! It is reassuring that you at least can get maybe 120 days of immunity that is much better than non SARS Coronavirus. Of course we don't really know that elevated IgG or IgM is going to protect from clinical infection with SARS or COVID as the only way to prove that is to re-exposure people of various titers and see if they get sick. I don't think even China would do that on purpose.

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Tmoneyag99
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So what you're saying is that if we don't find a vaccine we all have to remain in shelter not producing anything, the world economy is going to collapse and the only people that will be living are people in Asia who eat raw bat and have a developed immunity.





Silverlinging - Climate change is n o longer an issue.
plain_o_llama
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Here is the podcast, Ranger222 refers to:

http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-591/


Speculation on how coronavirus population immunity might develop in humans (47:20)
Why children are not showing symptoms (43:50)
KidDoc
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plain_o_llama said:

Here is the podcast, Ranger222 refers to:

http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-591/


Speculation on how coronavirus population immunity might develop in humans (47:20)
Why children are not showing symptoms (43:50)

Thanks I'll check it out during my dog walk in a bit.
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McInnis
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On the doctor reville thread this morning, he said that some researchers believe that children's high level of melatonin might contribute to their immunity. Do you have thoughts on that? Do you think that taking melatonin supplements could be helpful in preventing the disease?
KidDoc
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Safe at Home said:

On the doctor reville thread this morning, he said that some researchers believe that children's high level of melatonin might contribute to their immunity. Do you have thoughts on that? Do you think that taking melatonin supplements could be helpful in preventing the disease?
I think it is unproven but safe so may be worth trying. I am not convinced kids have significantly higher melatonin due to excessive screen exposure these days. I'm sure it is a bit higher than teens & older adults but the levels seem to drop to adult levels by late childhood and that does not correlate with the complication rate of COVID which appears to be overall mild until 60+.
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Reveille
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They have done the re-exposure test in monkeys. They gave 4 monkeys the virus and measured viral loads which peaked around 3 days after initial infection. Then 1 monkey was destroyed to see what all parts of the body contained the virus Then after recovery measured viral loads when negative at 28 days they reinfected the 3 monkeys and found they showed no signs of infection and negative viral loads. So this is extremely promising showing that we develop immunity to the virus.

Now we a are closing in on a blood test for antibodies showing IgM and IgG. IgM means you have a current or recent infection while IgG would signify you have an infection in the past and are now considered immune. This would be a game breaker as healthcare workers who have had and recovered would not need protective equipment. Saving more PPE for those who need it. Also positive IgG patients could safely return to the workplace. Lets all hop we get this available soon.
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slacker00
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Tmoneyag99 said:

So what you're saying is that if we don't find a vaccine we all have to remain in shelter not producing anything, the world economy is going to collapse and the only people that will be living are people in Asia who eat raw bat and have a developed immunity.
I'm not sure if all vaccines work the same way, but wouldn't that mean the vaccine wouldn't be long lasting either? My low level of understanding is vaccines cause OUR immune system to produce antibodies in the same manner as if we had the infection...........
Thomas Ford 91
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Let's assume for moment that infection leads to long-term immunity. Does the mostly benign nature of C19 mean a lower percentage threshold for herd immunity?
KidDoc
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slacker00 said:

Tmoneyag99 said:

So what you're saying is that if we don't find a vaccine we all have to remain in shelter not producing anything, the world economy is going to collapse and the only people that will be living are people in Asia who eat raw bat and have a developed immunity.
I'm not sure if all vaccines work the same way, but wouldn't that mean the vaccine wouldn't be long lasting either? My low level of understanding is vaccines cause OUR immune system to produce antibodies in the same manner as if we had the infection...........
Most modern vaccines have an agent that increase the immune reaction and causes long term immunity. In fact, all modern vaccines do this.

That is what the current active trials are working on.
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KidDoc
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Thomas Ford 91 said:

Let's assume for moment that infection leads to long-term immunity. Does the mostly benign nature of C19 mean a lower percentage threshold for herd immunity?
Too many variables. The virologist I have read & listened to have estimated that 70% infection rate should yield ok immunity.

70% infection rate in a short time frame is a catastrophe with 200ish million infected. With the current hospitalization rate of 14%, which I will downgrade to 10% to make it easier, that is 20 million needing hospitalization. That will overwhelm the medical system if not spread over time resulting in Italy like 10% mortality.
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KidDoc
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Oops I already need to redact my co-infection statement. From this source:

https://www.ebmedicine.net/topics/infectious-disease/COVID-19?utm_source=engagement&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=COVID19&__s=qikxdqvyescq3xta6dgm&fbclid=IwAR2-JDjSBIcDXXNHgObBEy_ffTaJ0nV8qdwx8QAM8dB08CStx7K85hOvBN0

After an exhaustive search of the literature, interviews with several infectious disease physicians, consultation of several national and international forums dedicated to both emergency medicine and COVID-19, we were able to find only a single non-peer reviewed Chinese study of 8274 specimens collected and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral species. (Note that the publisher states, "This article is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. It reports medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.") In this study, they found that 5.8% of COVID-19 patients had co-infections with other viruses, and that 18.4% of other (non-SARS-CoV-2) infections had other co-infectants.52 The authors acknowledged the unreliability of their tests for both SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses, which may underreport the actual co-infection rate. Furthermore, in some preliminary data reported by Stanford Medicine Data scientists, and immediately available to the public online at the behest of the California Department of Public Health, researchers found that in the 49 positive SARS-CoV-2 results, 11 (22.4%) also had co-infection with another virus.53 We anticipate that a large, validated study will help to shed further light on the rate of co-infection with SARS-CoV-2. In the meantime, we must recommend that clinicians maintain a high index of suspicion for SARS-CoV-2, regardless of the presence of other viruses.

Given this information, emergency clinicians should re-emphasize to the lay public what we already know of viral respiratory infections: that seeking treatment in a hospital setting for mild symptoms, fever, mild diarrhea, or cough alone likely carries with it more risk than benefit, both to themselves and to vulnerable patients around them. Patients experiencing severe symptoms such as difficulty breathing, high fever (>39C), and an inability to tolerate oral hydration should seek emergency evaluation. For those who are concerned about their symptoms or concerned about spreading the infection to vulnerable family members, care should be taken to practice social distancing, self-quarantining, and utilization of telehealth and drive-through screening clinics to receive medical evaluation and testing (if warranted) while minimizing risk of infectious spread. Though beyond the scope of this review, further discussions regarding institutional and departmental policies that weigh the need to protect the health of medical staff and care for patients versus the need to minimize nosocomial spread from asymptomatic healthcare workers who may infect patients, will need to continue.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Reveille
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KidDoc said:

Oops I already need to redact my co-infection statement. From this source:

https://www.ebmedicine.net/topics/infectious-disease/COVID-19?utm_source=engagement&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=COVID19&__s=qikxdqvyescq3xta6dgm&fbclid=IwAR2-JDjSBIcDXXNHgObBEy_ffTaJ0nV8qdwx8QAM8dB08CStx7K85hOvBN0

After an exhaustive search of the literature, interviews with several infectious disease physicians, consultation of several national and international forums dedicated to both emergency medicine and COVID-19, we were able to find only a single non-peer reviewed Chinese study of 8274 specimens collected and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral species. (Note that the publisher states, "This article is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. It reports medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.") In this study, they found that 5.8% of COVID-19 patients had co-infections with other viruses, and that 18.4% of other (non-SARS-CoV-2) infections had other co-infectants.52 The authors acknowledged the unreliability of their tests for both SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses, which may underreport the actual co-infection rate. Furthermore, in some preliminary data reported by Stanford Medicine Data scientists, and immediately available to the public online at the behest of the California Department of Public Health, researchers found that in the 49 positive SARS-CoV-2 results, 11 (22.4%) also had co-infection with another virus.53 We anticipate that a large, validated study will help to shed further light on the rate of co-infection with SARS-CoV-2. In the meantime, we must recommend that clinicians maintain a high index of suspicion for SARS-CoV-2, regardless of the presence of other viruses.

Given this information, emergency clinicians should re-emphasize to the lay public what we already know of viral respiratory infections: that seeking treatment in a hospital setting for mild symptoms, fever, mild diarrhea, or cough alone likely carries with it more risk than benefit, both to themselves and to vulnerable patients around them. Patients experiencing severe symptoms such as difficulty breathing, high fever (>39C), and an inability to tolerate oral hydration should seek emergency evaluation. For those who are concerned about their symptoms or concerned about spreading the infection to vulnerable family members, care should be taken to practice social distancing, self-quarantining, and utilization of telehealth and drive-through screening clinics to receive medical evaluation and testing (if warranted) while minimizing risk of infectious spread. Though beyond the scope of this review, further discussions regarding institutional and departmental policies that weigh the need to protect the health of medical staff and care for patients versus the need to minimize nosocomial spread from asymptomatic healthcare workers who may infect patients, will need to continue.
This is vital information, thanks for posting!

This is what people have got to start understand unless you are very very sick (meaning likely needed admission) stay away from the hospitals and emergency rooms. The risks of going to ER now, far outweighs the benefit unless you are severely ill. Call your PCP and set up a televisit which is safer for both the patient and providers.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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