Scenario 3 only really occurs if at-risk populations are too quick to try and return to normal, no?
*known casesPlayer To Be Named Later said:
It isn't just "at risk" folks that end up hospitalized. In our county, steadily 20%* of cases have been bad enough to get admitted.
Track cases by date tested and not date test results received.Granitestate said:
If you where sitting at the table with the taskforce considering how to reopen, what guidance would you give ? For example would you advocate contact tracing? Participation in contract tracing for access to public transit? Rapid test prior to boarding a flight? Opening of public beaches, parks, golf courses? Mandatory reporting of all positive and negative test results? Reporting icu bed occupancy rate? Number of test administered in geographic area, number of positives, and number of negatives? Etc. None of the above? others?
Thank you in advance. Your input has been extremely helpful.
All excellent points, this is almost exactly how I feel! I pretty much said most of the same things tonight.BiochemAg97 said:Not a medical professional, but it appears from all I have heard that we may have flattened the curve. Our hospitals have plenty of capacity because of we stopped all elective surgeries. This has caused a completely different problem than in places like NY. Instead of overwhelming our healthcare system, we have furloughed our healthcare workers.redline248 said:
I'm curious what is the opinion of medical professionals in regards to continuing shelter in place here in Texas. Posters on other texags boards are quite insistent it's massive overreaction.
Additionally, economic dislocation has its own risks, including increase suicides, domestic violence, alcoholism.
However, there is still a lot unknown. So a phased rollback of restrictions makes a lot of sense. We do not want to go too far too fast and end up overwhelming our healthcare system.
So far, we have:
-Allowing curbside to go from "non-essential" businesses makes a lot of sense. It has been allowed in other states and there is no reason to expect it is safer to get takeout food than to get takeout other goods.
-opening state parks. There is no reason to expect a state park is more dangerous than a city park or the sidewalk, if you maintain appropriate precautions.
-expand the definition of allowable surgeries. We have the hospital capacity to space.
All this presumes that we are near a peak and not on the verge of spiking.
That is exactly what we are doing! Buying time for a vaccine.dermdoc said:I agree. And the way to kill fear is knowledge. Basically we are in a stalling game until we develop treatment and then a vaccine.maroonbeansnrice said:Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.BiochemAg97 said:Not a medical professional, but it appears from all I have heard that we may have flattened the curve. Our hospitals have plenty of capacity because of we stopped all elective surgeries. This has caused a completely different problem than in places like NY. Instead of overwhelming our healthcare system, we have furloughed our healthcare workers.redline248 said:
I'm curious what is the opinion of medical professionals in regards to continuing shelter in place here in Texas. Posters on other texags boards are quite insistent it's massive overreaction.
Additionally, economic dislocation has its own risks, including increase suicides, domestic violence, alcoholism.
However, there is still a lot unknown. So a phased rollback of restrictions makes a lot of sense. We do not want to go too far too fast and end up overwhelming our healthcare system.
So far, we have:
-Allowing curbside to go from "non-essential" businesses makes a lot of sense. It has been allowed in other states and there is no reason to expect it is safer to get takeout food than to get takeout other goods.
-opening state parks. There is no reason to expect a state park is more dangerous than a city park or the sidewalk, if you maintain appropriate precautions.
-expand the definition of allowable surgeries. We have the hospital capacity to space.
All this presumes that we are near a peak and not on the verge of spiking.
Really good small summary!BiochemAg97 said:Agree.CowtownAg06 said:
I'm not sure about that. Consumer confidence isn't exactly sky high now and not not letting perfect be the enemy of good is important too. If they are controlled but there are incremental waves, I think that's better than a never ending lockdown for 12-18 months.
I see three possible options at each phase of opening.
1) infections continue to go down... great, open further
2) infections stay steady or rise slightly... hold until we get a handle on things
3) infections being to rise rapidly and risk overwhelming the healthcare system... this is a terrible outcome and will give the "keep everything shut down" the opportunity to say "told you so" and push against future attempts to reopen.
We need small steps to avoid 3, but we don't need to stay perfect (1).
Or we completely ignore hygiene and social distancing. This will cause a huge resurgence in cases.Kick-R said:
Scenario 3 only really occurs if at-risk populations are too quick to try and return to normal, no?
That is true of the population we have tested which has mainly been the symptomatic patients. There is a tremendous number of people who have had the disease but were undetected because they were essentially asymptomatic. So if you count them the number is much smaller. But your point is well taken because anyone can end up in the hospital. Young, old risk factors or no risk factors. We are still trying to figure out why some get so much sicker than others.Player To Be Named Later said:
It isn't just "at risk" folks that end up hospitalized. In our county, steadily 20% of cases have been bad enough to get admitted.
I didn't address contact tracing again tonight but I did earlier this week. I think it is a great idea but unfortunately i don't believe enough will participate in the google/apple plan to trace all known positives to make it effective.Granitestate said:
If you where sitting at the table with the taskforce considering how to reopen, what guidance would you give ? For example would you advocate contact tracing? Participation in contract tracing for access to public transit? Rapid test prior to boarding a flight? Opening of public beaches, parks, golf courses? Mandatory reporting of all positive and negative test results? Reporting icu bed occupancy rate? Number of test administered in geographic area, number of positives, and number of negatives? Etc. None of the above? others?
Thank you in advance. Your input has been extremely helpful.
1) CDC and local health departments are doing contact tracing already. But it is a challenge at this point because of the number of cases and the time involved in figuring out who you may have been in contact with. The Apple/Google thing is all about making that task easier so it scales while doing their best to protect privacy. Voluntary reporting of illness to the system means it won't be perfect. I imagine people will also be able to disable the feature on their phone, and some will do it. It will have gaps. This isn't about being perfect and eradicating the disease by isolation and quarantine, it is about controlling the spread and keeping the effective R(t) close to 1 or less. Hopefully voluntary works well enough, because the alternative is forced reporting or a more invasive option... plenty of companies already know everywhere you went and they could just mine that data for contact tracing on a non-voluntary basis.Granitestate said:
If you where sitting at the table with the taskforce considering how to reopen, what guidance would you give ?
For example would you advocate contact tracing?
Participation in contract tracing for access to public transit?
Rapid test prior to boarding a flight?
Opening of public beaches, parks, golf courses?
Mandatory reporting of all positive and negative test results? Reporting icu bed occupancy rate?
Number of test administered in geographic area, number of positives, and number of negatives? Etc. None of the above? others?
Thank you in advance. Your input has been extremely helpful.
Mental health is going to be a big problem. It is sad you are seeing so many patients with those issues already, although it is good they are seeking help. It is worse that there will be many more that don't seek help.Reveille said:I didn't address contact tracing again tonight but I did earlier this week. I think it is a great idea but unfortunately i don't believe enough will participate in the google/apple plan to trace all known positives to make it effective.Granitestate said:
If you where sitting at the table with the taskforce considering how to reopen, what guidance would you give ? For example would you advocate contact tracing? Participation in contract tracing for access to public transit? Rapid test prior to boarding a flight? Opening of public beaches, parks, golf courses? Mandatory reporting of all positive and negative test results? Reporting icu bed occupancy rate? Number of test administered in geographic area, number of positives, and number of negatives? Etc. None of the above? others?
Thank you in advance. Your input has been extremely helpful.
Testing before flights is a good idea but boy you are opening up a can of potential problems. People complaining about not being able to fly or threatening litigation over false positive costing them a major deal in another city. As we are now finding out people don't take well to being told no.
Opening of parks, golf courses, beaches are all great ideas and will help the moral of the citizens as depression and anxiety are becoming the next pandemic. I see at least 5 patients a day now with these disorders from losing job, home, savings etc.
COVID-19 is already a reportable disease so all results are reported by the lab.
We have plenty of ICU beds so not really a factor. Currently expected to need 300 and we have 2,259 beds available.
TMW1 said:
I'll be taking my wife and daughter to my PCP to be tested on Tuesday. I'll talk to him about donating plasma. It may turn out that all three of us can be donors.
She had symptoms, went to drive thru in Lewisville, waited a week, said they lost sample. Her employer asked her to go to lab, but they were out of tests. When tests kits came in, her symptoms had gone and tested negative for virus. They wanted to do anti-body test, but it was too soon.CowtownAg06 said:
Tested negative for antibodies or active virus?
Seems odd unless the test they were using only checked for IgG. IgM usually shows up within a week or two of infection. Given the time frame of symptoms, week to find out they lost her sample, wait longer, then get tested, she should have already had a IgM response.buzzardb267 said:She had symptoms, went to drive thru in Lewisville, waited a week, said they lost sample. Her employer asked her to go to lab, but they were out of tests. When tests kits came in, her symptoms had gone and tested negative for virus. They wanted to do anti-body test, but it was too soon.CowtownAg06 said:
Tested negative for antibodies or active virus?
There are a lot of things that cause respiratory illness. Typically, during flu season we see about 10% positive cases early in flu season, peaking at about 30-40% positives at the peak and then falling back down to 10% by the end and then we stop testing for the flu. So, your wife could have had something else. A typical respiratory illness panel test for about 20 viruses in addition to several bacteria and a fungus. Those are rarely run for your everyday go home and take tamiflu case and mostly only done when you are admitted to the hospital.Aggie4 said:
my daughter returned from a trip from China mid January, and 6 days later my wife came down with fever that escalated during the night to the point she was drenched wet and she had respiratory issues( hard time breathing). She tested negative for the flu and was never tested for Covid. The doctor treated her with steroid shot and an inhaler thinking it was Bronchitis. This lasted 6 days and she was not getting better, so she went to a medical SPA and got an IV consisting of Vitamins but mostly Vit C and Zinc..also got a COQ10 shot. She was almost 100% that night and well the next day.
This past Saturday we went to Arcpoint Labs to get the antibody test, which they receive from Shanghai, and our test were negative.
I'm assuming those test have a high percentage of inaccuracy, so maybe it was a false negative. Is there a better test out there?