Today's Update!

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2734653810150892&id=1998386763777604&__tn__=K-R

I'm pretty sure that's not true now. They were including them at first, but then changed their reporting according to this article.

Texas Tribune

This has probably already been asked, but if you knew you were exposed to someone with Covid, say, today, how long should you wait until you get tested? Go tomorrow, or wait a few days?

Aust Ag said:

---

This has probably already been asked, but if you knew you were exposed to someone with Covid, say, today, how long should you wait until you get tested? Go tomorrow, or wait a few days?

---

The false negatives decrease a lot after day four I think (I read it on here, and I think that was the day listed). I'd say wait if you're not experiencing symptoms.

One question for the docs in Texas - if you have a patient that tests positive multiple times during their hospital stay, does each positive test count as a separate case? Anecdotal that this is the case in AZ.

[url=https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1275916175025803264]

[/url]

I am wondering if anyone else has seen this - I was exposed to someone 7 days ago that tested positive (tested Sunday and got results Tuesday). I went ahead and got tested yesterday but I'm afraid I won't get results back for a while. The ONLY odd thing going on with me is my left lymph node is swollen so that my left jaw is larger than I've ever seen it. Other side of my face is fine. This popped up about 24 hours ago. Should I be concerned? No other symptoms.
Thanks - 29 white male in good health

No expert but I'd assume you would have it based on that.

Ok, I just talked to teledoctor and he said it looks more like a swollen salivary gland that I have and didn't act like it was a big deal. Still skeptical.. He told me to eat citrus and wait it out. Not fun having this anxiety with a 2 month old in the house..

Got the 15 min rapid test done and it came back negative

Is that a good or a bad thing? I'm hearing some friends get tested hoping for positive because they don't remember getting sick (but were around people that were), they were hoping they were asymptomatic...and they're bummed they're negative. The virus is still out there, looking for them!

SlimThug said:

---

I am wondering if anyone else has seen this - I was exposed to someone 7 days ago that tested positive (tested Sunday and got results Tuesday). I went ahead and got tested yesterday but I'm afraid I won't get results back for a while. The ONLY odd thing going on with me is my left lymph node is swollen so that my left jaw is larger than I've ever seen it. Other side of my face is fine. This popped up about 24 hours ago. Should I be concerned? No other symptoms.
Thanks - 29 white male in good health

---

Not that this is the case for you, but I have had issues with salivary glands in the past due to medications that can really dry you out (cold medications, acne medications, etc.) that can cause dry mouth and lead to some issues with your salivary glands. Also, lack of drinking water could be a cause or what I am seeing more of with me is wearing a mask really causes dry mouth/throat. Try and stay hydrated and if wearing a mask maybe suck on sour candy or the dry mouth lozenges which can activate your salivary glands and help alleviate the problem some.

Well good question..I am happy to see a negative test but now I am going to question the results until I figure out what's going on. Got blood drawn as well so will keep y'all posted. Mixed feelings

I picked up some sour candy and will hydrate like crazy. Have you ever had it happen on one side only?

SlimThug said:

---

I picked up some sour candy and will hydrate like crazy. Have you ever had it happen on one side only?

---

Absolutely. It is always on my left side for some weird reason. I also tend to clench my teeth a lot which makes it even more sore due to TMJ. It tends to bother me about half way up my jaw line right inside the jaw bone and I get some noticeable swelling. Probably more noticeable to me, but it definitely swells up. It was bothering me all day today and even just drinking a lot of water when I got home helped.

Today's Update!

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2736734129942860&id=1998386763777604&__tn__=K-R

Quote of the day, from our very own Dr. Rev:

"For those of you who wish not to wear a mask just remember that the new interns start in about one week and their last semester of medical school was all done online."

Nuff said and well put!

SlimThug said:

---

Well good question..I am happy to see a negative test but now I am going to question the results until I figure out what's going on. Got blood drawn as well so will keep y'all posted. Mixed feelings

---

My understanding with the quick tests is that a positive is a positive but a negative is inconclusive (could still be positive). Can trust a positive result much more so than a negative result.

Not sure if the quick tests have improved though. . . .

Cepe said:

---

SlimThug said:

---

Well good question..I am happy to see a negative test but now I am going to question the results until I figure out what's going on. Got blood drawn as well so will keep y'all posted. Mixed feelings

---

My understanding with the quick tests is that a positive is a positive but a negative is inconclusive (could still be positive). Can trust a positive result much more so than a negative result.

Not sure if the quick tests have improved though. . . .

---

The biggest trade-off with the quick tests are a drop in sensitivity compared to the standard qPCR test.

So you're correct.

Positive is almost always positive, but negative could be either negative or it could be positive but below the test's limit of detection.

Everyone seems to have different opinions on the rapid test, but the particular doctor I saw told me there's ~5% chance of a false negative in my case since I took it 8 days after exposure (right in the sweet spot?).

He wound up giving me a steroid shot and I chugged a ton of fluids last night. The spot on my throat looks much better and still no other symptoms.

That's theoretically correct in terms of when you'd be expected to be around peak viral shedding if the exposure time is accurate.

While the "5%" number you were given is completely made up, it could still be accurate.

No one can know at the time a test is given what the false negative probability for that specific test on that specific person is. These antigen based tests tend to hover around 30% false negative rate, but that includes all tests at all different times post exposure etc...

Sounds like in your case, if you were actually exposed, then you were around the ideal time post exposure to get tested.

Cepe said:

---

SlimThug said:

---

Well good question..I am happy to see a negative test but now I am going to question the results until I figure out what's going on. Got blood drawn as well so will keep y'all posted. Mixed feelings

---

My understanding with the quick tests is that a positive is a positive but a negative is inconclusive (could still be positive). Can trust a positive result much more so than a negative result.

Not sure if the quick tests have improved though. . . .

---

For the rapid test we were given, we were told that a positive has a 95% accuracy, but the negatives were only 80% accurate. So for every 5 negatives, 1 is actually false positive.

For false negatives, the probability of having COVID depends on this accuracy value (1-specificity) and the percentage of people taking the test who test positive. To bookend this, the number of people in Houston with positive tests is 33,785 out of 7 million people. So on the low end, the infection rate is under 0.5%. Out of the number tested, the positive rate seems to be 7%, but let's say 10% to make numbers easy.

I think the way the math works out is;

Before you walk in, you know you have a 10% chance of having COVID-19 right now.

After getting a negative result using a test with an 80% accuracy, you now know that you have a maximum likelihood of 2% of having it. Before testing, you know you only know you have the likelihood of the whole population around you (10%, or whatever the rate is in your population). After getting a negative result, you remove 80% of that likelihood. 10% x 80% removed due to test = 2% likelihood of having it. If the prevalence of Infection is lower than 10%, then your odds of having it also fall.

Right?

Right if you were a random sampled person. Wrong if you got tested due to known contact with an infected person.

The vast majority of the 30 million people texted so far were because they were directly exposed or a physician believed they had Covid19. If we started randomly testing everyone, the % positive would fall off a cliff.

So, on Friday I was exposed to someone that now has all the covid symptoms. We worked out at my house for 90 mins and then I gave them a ride home because their vehicle was being worked on. He's a nurse and is pretty sure he has it.

I don't really have a primary care doc. For the doctors, what medicines are you prescribing once there's a positive test?

I plan on waiting another 2-3 days and then get tested unless I show symptoms before then.

Sorry if already discussed: After being tested positive and having all the symptoms; after 14 days of quarantine and I still have no sense of taste and smell, can I go out?

Reveille - Did you see Elon Musks tweet about the high number of false positives? Essentially, he was saying that the data lines show there must be a high number of false positives because the cases are growing at a much higher rate than hospitalizations and deaths. I know conventional thinking is that younger people are testing positive and they tend to not get hospitalized or die.

What are your thoughts on false positives? It seems reasonable considering how fast we ramped up testing. We already have trust issues. God help us if it turns out a high percentage of our positive tests are false positives.

That could be one explanation, but there are other potential explanations as to why cases are up but not deaths (hospitalizations ARE up).

To make it Aggie related, Cameron Champ tested positive. Then, he had 3 consecutive negative tests within 72 hours of his positive test.

I understand hospitalizations are up, but they are not increasing at the same rate as new cases (even considering the delay).

If I look at the Texas Covid 19 dashboard site I see:

For new cases reported, I see ~1800 new cases a day on June 5th/6th and ~5600 new cases a day in recent days, just over a three fold increase.

For hospitalizations, I see ~2000 total Covid 19 hospitalizations on June 8th/9th and ~5900 Covid 19 hospitalizations today. Nearly a three fold increase.

It seems to be tracking, for hospitalizations.

Troglodyte said:

---

Reveille - Did you see Elon Musks tweet about the high number of false positives? Essentially, he was saying that the data lines show there must be a high number of false positives because the cases are growing at a much higher rate than hospitalizations and deaths. I know conventional thinking is that younger people are testing positive and they tend to not get hospitalized or die.

What are your thoughts on false positives? It seems reasonable considering how fast we ramped up testing. We already have trust issues. God help us if it turns out a high percentage of our positive tests are false positives.

---

I can address in my update tonight

In regards to false positives, who is getting the false positives? Is it people who are symptomatic, but don't have COVID, maybe a cold, the flu, allergies? Or are these people who would be considered "asymptomatic," but are testing positive?

Complete Idiot said:

---

If I look at the Texas Covid 19 dashboard site I see:

For new cases reported, I see ~1800 new cases a day on June 5th/6th and ~5600 new cases a day in recent days, just over a three fold increase.

For hospitalizations, I see ~2000 total Covid 19 hospitalizations on June 8th/9th and ~5900 Covid 19 hospitalizations today. Nearly a three fold increase.

It seems to be tracking, for hospitalizations.

---

Quote:

---

We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization."

---

DeWrecking Crew said:

---

Complete Idiot said:

---

If I look at the Texas Covid 19 dashboard site I see:

For new cases reported, I see ~1800 new cases a day on June 5th/6th and ~5600 new cases a day in recent days, just over a three fold increase.

For hospitalizations, I see ~2000 total Covid 19 hospitalizations on June 8th/9th and ~5900 Covid 19 hospitalizations today. Nearly a three fold increase.

It seems to be tracking, for hospitalizations.

---

Quote:

---

We are seeing younger patients, we are seeing a shorter length of stay, we are seeing lower immortality, and we are seeing lower ICU utilization."

---

---

I don't understand why that was posted in reply to me, my reply was to someone else who was saying that hospitalizations didn't seem to be rising in the same percentages as new cases. The data I saw says that it is, but even with these increased hospitalizations I dont have, and didn't express, any immediate concerns about hospital space, or ICU beds. Everything seems to be getting handled just fine by the hospital systems, stilled rooms and beds available - but there is an increase in Covid patients in hospitals. Both can be true.

I was simply trying to demonstrate where the increase in cases is coming from...the increase in cases is coming from very low risk groups