Lunardi still has us as a 4 in Seattle.

Seems it will be an us or Iowa St question on the 3/4 line now. Wisconsin seems to have clearly passed us

Lunardi is at least mediocre.

gougler08 said:

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Seems it will be an us or Iowa St question on the 3/4 line now. Wisconsin seems to have clearly passed us

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According to bracketologists, but it only matters how the committee sees it

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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OP Updated through Sunday night action

All contingencies planned for. Will complete final bracketing of seed lines 12-16 tomorrow morning and post my final bracket projection after the noon games.

I have Texas A&M in the Midwest along with
1 Houston
2 Alabama
3 Texas A&M - in Denver
4 Maryland
5 Clemson
6 UCLA
7 St. Mary's
8 Missouri
9 Creighton
10 Utah State
11 UC San Diego
12 Indiana / Xavier
13 High Point
14 Grand Canyon

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Love the UCLA matchup (although I think UCSD would have a good chance at upsetting them) but I'm not keen on a potential matchup with Bama in the Sweet 16. I'd rather face any other 2 seed than them.

NyAggie said:

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gougler08 said:

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Seems it will be an us or Iowa St question on the 3/4 line now. Wisconsin seems to have clearly passed us

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According to bracketologists, but it only matters how the committee sees it

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Well duh

NyAggie said:

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gougler08 said:

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Seems it will be an us or Iowa St question on the 3/4 line now. Wisconsin seems to have clearly passed us

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According to bracketologists, but it only matters how the committee sees it

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I think much like the CFP in past years, you're going to see the committee lean more towards conference representation when there's one dominant conference.

Having 6 of the Top 12 seeds be SEC with only one B10 team means I think if its between us and Wiscy, it'll be Wiscy getting the 3 seed.

Ultimately don't think it matters much for this team's advancement chances.

JJxvi said:

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I wish there was a national radio show where people could call in and talk trash about how "St Jawn's aint beat nobody in the SEC, Pawl!!"

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I concur.

Proposition Joe said:

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NyAggie said:

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gougler08 said:

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Seems it will be an us or Iowa St question on the 3/4 line now. Wisconsin seems to have clearly passed us

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According to bracketologists, but it only matters how the committee sees it

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I think much like the CFP in past years, you're going to see the committee lean more towards conference representation when there's one dominant conference.

Having 6 of the Top 12 seeds be SEC with only one B10 team means I think if its between us and Wiscy, it'll be Wiscy getting the 3 seed.

Ultimately don't think it matters much for this team's advancement chances.

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Great thought. I just hope if we are a 4 we are the first one so we go to Denver. Seattle is a tough trip.

Boogie Fland's sudden miraculous recovery was cracking me up and then I saw that

I just don't understand all the crying over 3 and 4 seeds. Honestly, do you see a huge difference in the 5 seeds and 6 seeds? Either way, we will have to be at our best to win. Then the next round you truly have 6 teams worthy of a 1 seed. Who would you rather play. Bama or Houston. I lean slightly Houston. The biggest difference is probably that 13 line vs 14. I hear you want to avoid Yale and high point though I don't understand the Yale with a loss to like every P4 team they have played. Grand Canyon scares me as much as anyone. They have this recent history in all sports of upsets.

Go handle your business. Get by in round 1. Round 2 I believe is favoring us just because we are a difficult team to mentally and physically prepare for.

bobinator said:

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Boogie Fland's sudden miraculous recovery was cracking me up and then I saw that

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I initially thought they were just saying that for the committee too, but Coach Cal also said Thiero likely wouldn't be back for tourney.

bearcat said:

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I just don't understand all the crying over 3 and 4 seeds. Honestly, do you see a huge difference in the 5 seeds and 6 seeds? Either way, we will have to be at our best to win. Then the next round you truly have 6 teams worthy of a 1 seed. Who would you rather play. Bama or Houston. I lean slightly Houston. The biggest difference is probably that 13 line vs 14. I hear you want to avoid Yale and high point though I don't understand the Yale with a loss to like every P4 team they have played. Grand Canyon scares me as much as anyone. They have this recent history in all sports of upsets.

Go handle your business. Get by in round 1. Round 2 I believe is favoring us just because we are a difficult team to mentally and physically prepare for.

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I generally agree with this. All is not lost if we end up a 4. To your point, there are some scenarios where we end up with better matchups. Still want a 3 though!

HossAg said:

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I'll never understand why a dude as bad as Palm is CBS' guy. I guess same logic applies to espn with Lunardi.

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And yet here we are, year in year out, posting about the latest outrageous bracket they've thrown up like poop against the wall. It's almost like they're bad on purpose to try to generate clicks or something...

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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bearcat said:

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I just don't understand all the crying over 3 and 4 seeds. Honestly, do you see a huge difference in the 5 seeds and 6 seeds? Either way, we will have to be at our best to win. Then the next round you truly have 6 teams worthy of a 1 seed. Who would you rather play. Bama or Houston. I lean slightly Houston. The biggest difference is probably that 13 line vs 14. I hear you want to avoid Yale and high point though I don't understand the Yale with a loss to like every P4 team they have played. Grand Canyon scares me as much as anyone. They have this recent history in all sports of upsets.

Go handle your business. Get by in round 1. Round 2 I believe is favoring us just because we are a difficult team to mentally and physically prepare for.

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There is a pretty significant difference.

A 3 seed wins on average 1.84 games in the NCAA tournament. A 4 seed wins 1.56

historical % of advancing from each round:

to round of 32
85.3 vs. 78.8

to sweet 16
52.6 vs 47.4

to elite 8
25.6 vs. 16.0

Especially this year, the 13 seeds are matchup nightmares for A&M and our possibility to get upset goes through the roof imo.

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THIS. A 14 seed is who we want for the first round - especially this year!

And I always prefer (assuming chalk with no high seeds upset earlier) getting the 2 seed as our opponent in Sweet Sixteen - saving the 1 seed for the Elite Eight game if we can beat the 2 seed on the first game if that second weekend.

aginlakeway said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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bearcat said:

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I just don't understand all the crying over 3 and 4 seeds. Honestly, do you see a huge difference in the 5 seeds and 6 seeds? Either way, we will have to be at our best to win. Then the next round you truly have 6 teams worthy of a 1 seed. Who would you rather play. Bama or Houston. I lean slightly Houston. The biggest difference is probably that 13 line vs 14. I hear you want to avoid Yale and high point though I don't understand the Yale with a loss to like every P4 team they have played. Grand Canyon scares me as much as anyone. They have this recent history in all sports of upsets.

Go handle your business. Get by in round 1. Round 2 I believe is favoring us just because we are a difficult team to mentally and physically prepare for.

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There is a pretty significant difference.

A 3 seed wins on average 1.84 games in the NCAA tournament. A 4 seed wins 1.56

historical % of advancing from each round:

to round of 32
85.3 vs. 78.8

to sweet 16
52.6 vs 47.4

to elite 8
25.6 vs. 16.0

Especially this year, the 13 seeds are matchup nightmares for A&M and our possibility to get upset goes through the roof imo.

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How do 1 seeds have a better chance of winning the natty than making it to the final four? Am I reading this chart wrong?

Little to no chance we a 3. Although it really doesn't matter

Texags Meltdown said:

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aginlakeway said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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bearcat said:

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I just don't understand all the crying over 3 and 4 seeds. Honestly, do you see a huge difference in the 5 seeds and 6 seeds? Either way, we will have to be at our best to win. Then the next round you truly have 6 teams worthy of a 1 seed. Who would you rather play. Bama or Houston. I lean slightly Houston. The biggest difference is probably that 13 line vs 14. I hear you want to avoid Yale and high point though I don't understand the Yale with a loss to like every P4 team they have played. Grand Canyon scares me as much as anyone. They have this recent history in all sports of upsets.

Go handle your business. Get by in round 1. Round 2 I believe is favoring us just because we are a difficult team to mentally and physically prepare for.

---

There is a pretty significant difference.

A 3 seed wins on average 1.84 games in the NCAA tournament. A 4 seed wins 1.56

historical % of advancing from each round:

to round of 32
85.3 vs. 78.8

to sweet 16
52.6 vs 47.4

to elite 8
25.6 vs. 16.0

Especially this year, the 13 seeds are matchup nightmares for A&M and our possibility to get upset goes through the roof imo.

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How do 1 seeds have a better chance of winning the natty than making it to the final four? Am I reading this chart wrong?

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As I assume this chart is all historical data converted into %, it's got to have something to do with the fact that the Final 4 and Championship games are the only times 2 No.1 seeds can play eachother (or 2 of any seed), so there is a slight uptick in the % chance ... that would just be my wild ass guess as to why the stats look that way.

Lunardi's 10:50am update has us a 4 seed in Denver.

dermdoc said:

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Lunardi's 10:50am update has us a 4 seed in Denver.

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vs. Yale and then maybe Purdue and then Houston.

I hope Cornell beats Yale today.

aginlakeway said:

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dermdoc said:

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Lunardi's 10:50am update has us a 4 seed in Denver.

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vs. Yale and then maybe Purdue and then Houston.

I hope Cornell beats Yale today.

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And now that I got the sweet place to stay in Seattle, we will end up in Denver.

Hill08 said:

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Little to no chance we a 3. Although it really doesn't matter

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What makes you think this?

For this team, 3 vs 4 will not matter.

Proposition Joe said:

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For this team, 3 vs 4 will not matter.

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Tend to agree. Matchup matters more than seed.

Still holding out hope for Wichita where I have the sweetest place of all to stay