*****ColleyvilleAg06 Bubble Watch*****

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ShotOver
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In reply to HossAg • 9:22p, 3/15/25
AG
HossAg said:
ShotOver said:
Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.


It's wild how many non ball knowers come out of the weeds around this time


6 seed. Don't shoot the messenger
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dermdoc
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 9:22p, 3/15/25
AG
ColleyvilleAg06 said:
I knew it would be but man bracketing is an absolute nightmare this year.
Thanks for doing this.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to ShotOver • 9:23p, 3/15/25
AG
ShotOver said:
HossAg said:
ShotOver said:
Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.


It's wild how many non ball knowers come out of the weeds around this time


6 seed. Don't shoot the messenger


6 seed for which team?
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ShotOver
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In reply to aginlakeway • 9:24p, 3/15/25
AG
aginlakeway said:
ShotOver said:
HossAg said:
ShotOver said:
Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.


It's wild how many non ball knowers come out of the weeds around this time


6 seed. Don't shoot the messenger


6 seed for which team?


Your team.
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Serious Lee
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9:26p, 3/15/25
unless the committee is filled with B10 & B12 representatives that want to stick it to the SEC, theres no way A&M is a 6.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to ShotOver • 9:28p, 3/15/25
AG
ShotOver said:
aginlakeway said:
ShotOver said:
HossAg said:
ShotOver said:
Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.


It's wild how many non ball knowers come out of the weeds around this time


6 seed. Don't shoot the messenger


6 seed for which team?


Your team.


You think A&M will be a 6 seed? Really?
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HossAg
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In reply to ShotOver • 9:29p, 3/15/25
AG
ShotOver said:
HossAg said:
ShotOver said:
Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.


It's wild how many non ball knowers come out of the weeds around this time


6 seed. Don't shoot the messenger


This is the type of dude that tells his friends we're gonna be a 6 seed because they want to put us against texas as an 11 seed in the first round. Conference realignment be damned.
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bobinator
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In reply to HossAg • 9:33p, 3/15/25
AG
This guy's last posts on this board were about how making the Sweet 16 would be a "good but not great" season
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ColleyvilleAg06
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9:43p, 3/15/25
AG
It's post like that where I wish there was a put your money where your mouth is feature on Texans where you could easily and securely make money off people like this.

I would bet any amount of money with pretty much any odds you want on that. Absolutely Ridiculous
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bobinator
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In reply to ColleyvilleAg06 • 9:45p, 3/15/25
AG
There should absolutely be a bet feature. Hold people to those "never post again" type claims too.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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9:49p, 3/15/25
AG
And for the team A/B comparison …. A&M is the A and clears team B (Iowa state) easily…. But not even for these reasons stated (things like RPI don't matter)

A&M
WAB - 10
KPI 13
Key non conf wins: Tech (N), Purdue (N), Creighton (N), Ohio State, Wake Forest
Bad losses: none

Iowa State
WAB 18
KPI 24
Key Non Conf wins: Marquette, @Iowa, Dayton
Bad losses: Kansas State, Oklahoma State

Oh and we also beat Auburn.
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LouisvilleAg
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9:50p, 3/15/25
AG
Alright, here is my bracket. If Wisconsin loses tomorrow, we might slide into the last 3, but right now, I have us as the first 4 seed.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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TjgtAg08
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In reply to LouisvilleAg • 9:54p, 3/15/25
AG
By what metrics/formula/rationale do you have Iowa State higher than us? Not being sarcastic, honestly curious.
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bobinator
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In reply to TjgtAg08 • 9:57p, 3/15/25
AG
LouisvilleAg has a complicated model built on the latest analytical methods and also like 15% pure vibes.
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LouisvilleAg
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10:00p, 3/15/25
AG
I may have to switch Georgia and Oklahoma due to Kentucky playing Oklahoma three times. And Michigan State should not be bolded. It probably should be Wisconsin bolded.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to bobinator • 10:01p, 3/15/25
AG
bobinator said:
LouisvilleAg has a complicated model built on the latest analytical methods and also like 15% pure vibes.
It is 100% pure vibes
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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ExtremeRush
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In reply to aginlakeway • 10:01p, 3/15/25
AG
aginlakeway said:
ShotOver said:
aginlakeway said:
ShotOver said:
HossAg said:
ShotOver said:
Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.


It's wild how many non ball knowers come out of the weeds around this time


6 seed. Don't shoot the messenger


6 seed for which team?


Your team.


You think A&M will be a 6 seed? Really?

Looking at his profile, looks like a troll. He said a few days ago that we're a 6 at best and should be a 7-8 seed. I think people like this know we're a 3-4 seed but like to throw out a crazy idea grenade in a forum and see people react. Sad life to live.

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LouisvilleAg
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10:04p, 3/15/25
AG
I mean Arkansas vs Kansas to play Kentucky? Come on, give it to me. Would love Kansas to play Ar-Kansas for the shot of Calipari playing Kentucky in the second round. If not, then you have Kansas vs Kentucky.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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Topher17
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In reply to LouisvilleAg • 10:25p, 3/15/25
AG
Louisville a 4 and Maryland a 5?

Personally I think we're much more likely to see Louisville closer to the 7 line than the 4 line and Maryland the 3 line than the 5 line.
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to Topher17 • 10:47p, 3/15/25
AG
Topher17 said:
Louisville a 4 and Maryland a 5?

Personally I think we're much more likely to see Louisville closer to the 7 line than the 4 line and Maryland the 3 line than the 5 line.


I am not a savant. Just trying to figure out the model. Feel like I am getting close. I may be way off. But there are metrics that we think the committee uses. I may not have them weighted correctly, but only Colleyville knows. I have taken what he had said and incorporated them into my model. Again, I may be still off. But I like it so far.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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LouisvilleAg
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10:49p, 3/15/25
AG
Just a little different view than what Colleyville puts out. Not meant to be challenging. We have different models obviously.
"If a law is unjust, a man is not only right to disobey it, he is obligated to do so." - Thomas Jefferson
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ColleyvilleAg06
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12:00a, 3/16/25
AG
Bracketing done for seed lines 1-11

Finalizing the bubble now that UCSD has secured the auto bid.

I have Vandy and San Diego State playing in a L4I game but fairly safe

I have 5 teams for 2 spots (assuming VCU and Memphis win, if both lose these spots go away)

Indiana
Xavier
-------
UNC
Texas
Boise St.

If VCU loses as of now i have them as the last team in (ahead of UNC and Xavuer). If Memphis loses the line shifts up 1.

I will now finish up the bracketing with the assumption of a VCU and Memphis win, if either lose tomorrow i will have to scramble a bit.
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Topher17
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In reply to LouisvilleAg • 12:01a, 3/16/25
AG
Oh I don't intend that to be a challenge at all. Even taking the time to put out a full bracket ahead of time is quite an undertaking and impressive.

There will be some very interesting seeding results tomorrow, as there always is. No one knows exactly what they'll be at this point.
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Method Man
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12:05a, 3/16/25
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Method Man
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12:06a, 3/16/25
To 3, or not to 3? That is the question.
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to Topher17 • 12:21a, 3/16/25
AG
I meant challenging to Colleyville. I bow down to the master. I am just trying to be half as good.

I do think Louisville will end up "shocking" people with their seed. Not just because I have a degree from there.
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LouisvilleAg
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In reply to Topher17 • 12:23a, 3/16/25
AG
And I live in Maryland so there is absolutely zero bias.
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20ag07
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12:47a, 3/16/25
I do slightly miss the days during these past 2 calendar weeks annually, when 99 tinfoil hat people a day would have told you that Lunardi was being directly fed everything by the committee. It was always truly hilarious and happened for YEARS.
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ColleyvilleAg06
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1:05a, 3/16/25
AG
OP Updated through Sunday night action

All contingencies planned for. Will complete final bracketing of seed lines 12-16 tomorrow morning and post my final bracket projection after the noon games.

I have Texas A&M in the Midwest along with
1 Houston
2 Alabama
3 Texas A&M - in Denver
4 Maryland
5 Clemson
6 UCLA
7 St. Mary's
8 Missouri
9 Creighton
10 Utah State
11 UC San Diego
12 Indiana / Xavier
13 High Point
14 Grand Canyon

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ColleyvilleAg06
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In reply to Method Man • 1:13a, 3/16/25
AG
Method Man said:
Q1 Road wins is an odd thing to call out

Iowa State Q1 road wins

Iowa
Texas Tech
Arizona State
UCF

Texas A&M Road Wins
Oklahoma
Ole Miss
Missouri

Sure Iowa State has more (4 vs 3) in a world where @Arizona State is equivalent to @Missouri. All 3 of those A&M Wins are vs. tournament teams. And then you add in the neutral wins Tech, Purdue, Creighton
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PatAg
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In reply to ShotOver • 1:24a, 3/16/25
AG
ShotOver said:
HossAg said:
ShotOver said:
Teams that cant shoot free throws, (but with decent records), are usually 6 seeds or lower…so, just be ready for that. You're welcome.


It's wild how many non ball knowers come out of the weeds around this time


6 seed. Don't shoot the messenger
feel free to F off back to whatever hole you crawled out, lol.
more likely from under a bridge, troll style
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