BaytownAg13 said:

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I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

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Its in the OP but i've got it as

1% 2 seed
89% 3 seed
10% 4 seed

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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BaytownAg13 said:

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I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

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Its in the OP but i've got it as

1% 2 seed
89% 3 seed
10% 4 seed

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Thanks Colleyville! Trying to not get drug down by all the negativity on the board tonight. The season ain't over!

BaytownAg13 said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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BaytownAg13 said:

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I need someone to tell me that we're still a 3 seed

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Its in the OP but i've got it as

1% 2 seed
89% 3 seed
10% 4 seed

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Thanks Colleyville! Trying to not get drug down by all the negativity on the board tonight. The season ain't over!

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Watch the game on delay. Go have dinner with the wife and kid and avoid the phone for a few hours. Then sit down and enjoy and miss all the drama on TexAgs.

OP updated through Thursday games...what a crazy UK/OU game. wow.

Quote:

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Texas moves to first team out.

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I'd love to agree with you on this. But we are about to see the tu bias put into play

Assuming sip gets run out by Tennessee tomorrow, they finish the season 19-15 with an 8-13 conference record after going 17-14/6-12 pre tournament

We were 23-12/10-10 on selection Sunday in 2022 after going 20-11/7-9 regular season. We were told that wasn't enough by the committee, and that SEC tournament results didn't factor into the body of work

Compare the two sets of results. And compare what happens Sunday. I'll be absolutely amazed if the networks/selection committee don't force their golden child in there somehow. Hope I'm wrong. But I doubt it

It's close enough either way that the only way Texas can absolutely guarantee a bid is by winning 3 more games.

The bad:
#285 non conference sos where they had 2 losses to the only teams with a pulse.
Then went 6-12 in conference
Resume numbers all 50+ entering the tournament

The good
7 quad 1 wins with no bad losses

You can argue yourself either way right now. The decision in 78 hours will depend on
-how many more Texas wins
-does UNC get 0,1 or 2 more wins
- who wins the AAC and MWC
-how the profile is evaluated vs Xavier, the loser of the A10 and the loser of the Big West

You can say they are in right now if you want, but if unc and north Texas win their tournaments you are now asking the committee to put them in over Indiana and San Diego state and that's a much tougher ask, even with a Tennessee win.

This question is pertaining to tu but could apply to a number of teams any season and I'm just curious what precedent says.

I believe it was Bilas said that yesterday was only texas' 4th game with everyone healthy. Does the committee take that into account when weighing their recent results vs the full body of work or does accounting for injuries open to big of a can of worms and they must simply evaluate numerical data and resumes?

Faustus said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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It's close enough either way that the only way Texas can absolutely guarantee a bid is by winning 3 more games.

The bad:
#285 non conference sos where they had 2 losses to the only teams with a pulse.
Then went 6-12 in conference
Resume numbers all 50+ entering the tournament

The good
7 quad 1 wins with no bad losses

You can argue yourself either way right now. The decision in 78 hours will depend on
-how many more Texas wins
-does UNC get 0,1 or 2 more wins
- who wins the AAC and MWC
-how the profile is evaluated vs Xavier, the loser of the A10 and the loser of the Big West

You can say they are in right now if you want, but if unc and north Texas win their tournaments you are now asking the committee to put them in over Indiana and San Diego state and that's a much tougher ask, even with a Tennessee win.

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Indiana has a Net ranking of 54, WAB of 46, 4-13 vs Quad 1, 8-13 vs Quads 1-2 and a BPI of 52.

San Diego St. has a Net ranking of 51, WAB of 44, 3-6 vs Quad 1, 8-8 vs Quads 1-2, and a BPI of 53.

Texas has a Net ranking of 38, WAB of 45, 7-10 vs Quad 1, 10-14 vs Quads 1-2, and a BPI of 32.

It really doesn't seem like that tough of ask to have the Horns ahead of either team even without a Tenn. win - at least based on those numbers. Certainly Indiana.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

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Wait, are you saying it's not some conspiracy????

Me as well. The Vols and Barnes should make quick work of the Horns. Keeping it close would be a moral victory of sorts.

You always want to make the Dance, but a one and done just prolongs the pain that is Terry - so it's with mixed emotions if we sneak in.

Here is my update. Texas is first team out. Everyone else on the bubble is pretty much done. All that waits are the potential bid thieves. BYU/UNC would be our potential second round matchup.

LouisvilleAg said:

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Here is my update. Texas is first team out. Everyone else on the bubble is pretty much done. All that waits are the potential bid thieves. BYU/UNC would be our potential second round matchup.

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Who are your 1st 4 out and in?

LouisvilleAg said:

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Here is my update. Texas is first team out. Everyone else on the bubble is pretty much done. All that waits are the potential bid thieves. BYU/UNC would be our potential second round matchup.

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Holy Moly! PLEASE keep us away from BYU!!! They might br the hottest team in College Basketball right now!

PJYoung said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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Here is my update. Texas is first team out. Everyone else on the bubble is pretty much done. All that waits are the potential bid thieves. BYU/UNC would be our potential second round matchup.

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Who are your 1st 4 out and in?

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Last 4 In
Vandy
SDSU
Indiana
Xavier

First 4 Out
Texas
Wake
Ohio State
Boise State

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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Here is my update. Texas is first team out. Everyone else on the bubble is pretty much done. All that waits are the potential bid thieves. BYU/UNC would be our potential second round matchup.

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Holy Moly! PLEASE keep us away from BYU!!! They might br the hottest team in College Basketball right now!

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BYU is a 6/7 seed in most brackets. Don't think they can get to the 5 seed. The biggest issue for them is that they must be in Thursday / Saturday pod and region.

The two regions that are Thursday / Saturday are the East (most likely Duke's) and West (either Florida or Bama).

The four regions that are Thursday / Saturday are Lexington (most likely 1 seeds so that is out), Wichita, Denver, and Providence. Those last three could be any seeds between 2 and 4. So those three are all in play.

Alright gurus- we are considering buying tickets today (ncaa site waiving fees). Several predictions out there for 3 seed in Denver as of this AM. How safe of a bet would it be to buy tickets now? I know it's not for sure. Just wondering how big of a risk and if it's worth it.

The differences between the matrix and my model is this:

Model - Matrix
Oregon 4 - 5
Louisville 5 - 6
Maryland 5 - 4
Kansas 6 - 7
BYU 6 - 7
Michigan 6 - 5
Saint Mary's 7 - 6
UCLA 7 - 6
Memphis 7 - 8
Missouri 8 - 7
Creighton 8 - 9
UConn 9 - 8
Baylor 9 - 10
Utah St 10 - 9
Oklahoma 10 - 11
Vandy 11 - 10

Not one of them is off by more than 1 seed. Pretty happy with the model.

And honestly, if we drop to a 4 seed, I wouldn't be mad if we made it into Duke's bracket.

How much would a Memphis loss today help keep the sips out?

It would guarantee one less spot for them. Anyone other than Memphis winning the AAC Tourney would be a surefire bid thief.

fightintxag13 said:

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It would guarantee one less spot for them. Anyone other than Memphis winning the AAC Tourney would be a surefire bid thief.

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This. Texas needs to be big Memphis fans, particularly if they lose today.

LouisvilleAg said:

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aggiedoc09 said:

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Alright gurus- we are considering buying tickets today (ncaa site waiving fees). Several predictions out there for 3 seed in Denver as of this AM. How safe of a bet would it be to buy tickets now? I know it's not for sure. Just wondering how big of a risk and if it's worth it.

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Kentucky and Iowa State will be in Milwaukee. That is the closest venue to their campii.

Texas Tech is 554 miles from Denver. 508 miles from Wichita.

We are closer by a lot to Wichita. Don't know if the committee will take that into the equation.

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They will, but it won't be a make or break hill to die on. Now if one team could drive to Wichita/Denver that would make it a major point, but the distances for both are still charter flights so would seem negligible.

OP updated through the early window games. Very minor adjustments to some write ups.

Even though I am a big NM Lobo fan - i am certain they are in and likely a 9 seed. Could get to an 8 seed if they win the MWC Tournament- BUT, i prefer that they lose to Boise State today - as I think a Boise State win in the MWC Semifinal game against a Quad 1 opponent (UNM) coupled with a tu loss to the "Real UT" would just about assure that Boise State vaults over tu as the last team in...

At this point, if you are not in, the only way to get in is to win the conference tournament.

I think the committee is well into seeding teams. I am sure the field is set except for the potential bid thieves.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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fightintxag13 said:

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It would guarantee one less spot for them. Anyone other than Memphis winning the AAC Tourney would be a surefire bid thief.

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This. Texas needs to be big Memphis fans, particularly if they lose today.

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What about UCSD?

So you think that the only way the sips are in is if they win the SECT?

Fanatic15...Drs2B! said:

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So you think that the only way the sips are in is if they win the SECT?

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Especially if there are bid thieves. And I expect there to be a couple.