Here's JBR's thoughts on the bubble (he has us as the last 3 seed now):

Quote:

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Teams currently IN:
-West Virginia win and in, or confirmed few bid stealers

-Georgia win and in, or confirmed few bid stealers

-Utah State win and 99.9% in, just want to make sure they cant take a bad loss in MWCT

-San Diego State win and 99.9% in, just want to make sure they cant take a bad loss in MWCT

-Drake regular season already over. Avoid a Q4 loss and ideally advance to Arch Madness final, though almost certainly in with just one win

-VCU needs to beat Dayton, advance to A10 final. Resume is extremely thin, really cant afford a hiccup before then even though I think they are pretty clearly a Top 25 team right now

-UC San Diego win last two and advance to Big West Final. Resume metrics are pretty mediocre, so I cant promise this team earns an at-large bid even with the non-conference win @ Utah State

-Arkansas win and 99.9% in. Lose Saturday to Miss State though and might need to win two in SECT

-Ohio State win and 99.9% in. Loss Saturday @ Indiana and likely need to win at least two in B10T

-Indiana win and 98% in. Ideally win next two including opening round in B10T and should be safely in the field

-Boise State gotta beat Colorado State and likely at least two wins in Mountain West Conference Tournament. Admittedly pretty nervous here for the Broncos, anecdotally have a hard time seeing committee go four MWC bids to just three to ACC

-Xavier win last two + one win in Big East Tournament and should be good. Would get the resume metrics to mid 40s with 13-7 in Big East and an elite road win @ Marquette. Would help too if Marquette beats St John's this weekend to elevate the quality of that win

Teams currently OUT:
-UNC 1-10 vs Q1 and 1-8 vs at-large field still hugely troublesome. Metrics in good shape overall for a bubble team, but have to pick up one win before Selection Sunday against Duke/ Clemson/ Louisville. Tough schedule, I get it, but that's a LOT of opportunities to pick up needle moving wins where the Tar Heels have consistently come up short

-Texas gotta win next two at minimum. Home vs Oklahoma and one in SECT, but I think Texas really needs to win two in SECT to have a legit shot

-Oklahoma finish 2-0 or finish 1-1 with 2+ wins in SEC Tournament. 0-2 finish and I think they need to win SEC Tournament. 4-14 in SEC is unworthy of a bid.

-Nebraska gotta beat Iowa at home and win at least two in Big Ten Tournament. I dont see 1-1 in B10T being enough here tbh.

-Cincinnati 2-0 finish + at least two wins in B12T. Anything less, I don't think is enough

-Wake all but eliminated, need to win out likely until ACC Championship game to have a shot

-Dayton an interesting resume with some quality non conference wins. Flyers can get very close with a Quad 1A win @ VCU + a deep A10 run

-UC Irvine is Next Four Out but they are cooked. No win moves the needle enough at this point

-SMU, San Francisco, Colorado State, TCU, and Stanford only other long shots mathematically alive in my mind. Would have to win out until their respective conference tournament finals to have a shot

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I mention the possibility of a 2 seed in the OP. Ultimately our quality metrics probably hold us back from that…. But if St. John's loses this weekend the door is absolutely open.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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I mention the possibility of a 2 seed in the OP. Ultimately our quality metrics probably hold us back from that…. But if St. John's loses this weekend the door is absolutely open.

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I mean wouldn't that be too many SEC teams jammed in the 1 and 2 seed lines? I feel like we would be the odd man out unless you think the committee doesn't care about things like that.

I tend to agree with JBR on most of his thoughts in general. I think the acc teams have a bit more hope than he gives them credit for.

I don't have an issue with anyone putting A&M somewhere else along the 3 line, it is pretty razor thin margins.

Here is my updated bracket after the big win (I have St. John's and Purdue flipped from Colleyville's bracket but almost everything else is pretty close:

1 seeds
Auburn
Houston
Duke
Alabama

2 seeds
Tennessee
Florida
Michigan State
Purdue

3 seeds
Wisconsin
Texas A&M
Kentucky
Texas Tech

4 seeds
Arizona
Iowa State
Michigan
St. John's

5 seeds
Illinois
Clemson
Marquette
Oregon

6 seeds
Maryland
Missouri
Louisville
UCLA

7 seeds
Kansas
BYU
Mississippi State
Ole Miss

8 seeds
Saint Mary's
Baylor
Creighton
Memphis

9 seeds
Gonzaga
West Virginia
UConn
Georgia

10 seeds
Ohio State
Vanderbilt
New Mexico
Utah State

11 seeds
North Carolina
VCU

Last 4 In
Arkansas
Indiana
Cincinnati
Xavier

First 4 Out
San Diego State
Texas
Oklahoma
Nebraska

Badace52 said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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A&m resume numbers have been updated:

KPI - moves from 13 to 10
SOR moves from 18 to 12
WAB moves from 11 to 8

A&M now owns the 8th best resume in the country. Huge gap to the top 7, decent sized gap between them and #9 St. John's

Gaps between St. John's at 9 to St Mary's at 19 are miniscule.

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So then theoretically we could be a 2 seed if we hold the line against LSU and win our first SEC tourney game?

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Not necessarily. Duke, for example, has the 18th best resume in the country. They are considered a 1 because they blow everyone out. It doesn't hurt that they are Duke and have one of the best players in all of college ball.

Duke has the 6th best resume in the country but is #1 in quality. That's why they are a 1 seed. There is not a single metric they are worse than #7, not sure where you are getting they have the 18th best resume.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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Duke has the 6th best resume in the country but is #1 in quality. That's why they are a 1 seed. There is not a single metric they are worse than #7, not sure where you are getting they have the 18th best resume.

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They have only played 7 Q1A games and are 4-3. They have won every other game. They lack enough Q1 games. To their credit, they have blown every one out. That is why their quality is so good.

Duke has played 15 Q1+Q2 games. To compare against other possible 1 seed teams, here are the others:

Auburn - 24
Houston - 21
Florida - 19
Tennessee - 19
Alabama - 23

Hell, Gonzaga (14) almost has as many as Duke.

And to bring this back to A&M, we have played 22.

Duke is #3 in strength of record which takes into account strength of schedule. They are 12-3 in their Q1 /Q2 games which is the 2nd best win % in the country.

Resume rank is about more than how tough your schedule is- it's who you beat… and well,.. they beat Auburn. Their resume is the 6th best in the country, still not understanding where you get #18.

Also if just focused on the worst part of their resume the Q1A record… only Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State and Oregon have a better Quad1A record than Duke. Those teams have a combined 11 losses outside of quad 1A. Duke has zero (Auburn is the only other team with zero)

OP Updated

Locks: UConn
Eliminated: None (Although Cincy is essentially done)

Moving Up: Ole Miss, Maryland, UConn, Florida, Oklahoma
Moving Down: Mizzou, Michigan, Cincinatti

With only Ok St left, I'm not sure what Cincy could possibly do to get in other than win the auto bid.

Topher17 said:

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With only Ok St left, I'm not sure what Cincy could possibly do to get in other than win the auto bid.

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I agree I think they are done but I want to see what the numbers look like tomorrow.

After seeing all these senior nights and the home teams pulling out wins, I want to take a venture out into La La Land and say UNC upsets Duke Saturday. Might have to place a small ML wager on it.

Last 4 byes (assuming Utah State and VCU win their conference tourenys)
Vanderbilt
New Mexico
Ohio State
North Carolina.

Last 4 In
Oklahoma
Indiana
Arkansas
Xavier

First 4 Out
San Diego State
Texas
Cincinnati
Nebraska

NyAggie said:

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LouisvilleAg said:

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After seeing all these senior nights and the home teams pulling out wins, I want to take a venture out into La La Land and say UNC upsets Duke Saturday. Might have to place a small ML wager on it.

Last 4 byes (assuming Utah State and VCU win their conference tourenys)
Vanderbilt
New Mexico
Ohio State
North Carolina.

Last 4 In
Oklahoma
Indiana
Arkansas
Xavier

First 4 Out
San Diego State
Texas
Cincinnati
Nebraska

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Man, I really hope Texas misses the tourney

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Big bubble games this weekend:

Friday
UNLV @ New Mexico - doubt highly New Mexico loses this
Colorado State @ Boise State

Saturday
Mississippi State @ Arkansas
Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma State - Cincy can't lose this one
Ohio State @ Indiana
Providence @ Xavier - doubt highly that Xavier loses this
Duke @ North Carolina
Oklahoma @ Texas

Sunday
Iowa @ Nebraska - must win for Nebraska

Seems like winner of Oklahoma and Texas game could be in. Depending on result, both teams could get in. Doubt both teams are left out. All the other teams listed can't lose or they could be out.

This is the way I am thinking the bracket looks now:

This seems pretty favorable for us

HossAg said:

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This seems pretty favorable for us

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Well....I am biased!

I think you've got some sites mixed up. I don't see why you'd have Alabama in Wichita and Tennessee in Cleveland.

bobinator said:

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I think you've got some sites mixed up. I don't see why you'd have Alabama in Wichita and Tennessee in Cleveland.

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Part of that was BYU because they can't play on Sunday. So agree with you. I will get that dialed in later this week.

Yeah but they'll just bump BYU down a seed for that if they have to, that's what happened last year.

I don't think there's any combination of events where we could end up in Raleigh (if we're a top 4 seed).

Especially this year it's going to be a nightmare.

Good night Boise. I think that loss puts them to bed. Now, Colorado State, i don't think the win puts them in, but i would be willing to place a small wager they win the conference tournament, especially if Clifford can play like that.

LouisvilleAg said:

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Good night Boise. I think that loss puts them to bed. Now, Colorado State, i don't think the win puts them in, but i would be willing to place a small wager they win the conference tournament, especially if Clifford can play like that.

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I think the Lobos will win the MWC Tournament like they did last year - keeping MWC bids to 3 teams - maybe only 2 teams.

I could see New Mexico as an 8 seed - maybe even a 7 seed And, either way, they will be a tough out in the NCAAT and a sleeper Sweet 16 team.

Don't want them in the same bracket as out Aggies!

Can you imagine getting to play a 11 seed UNC in Raleigh? If UNC slips in, I think they get shipped out.

Like playing Louisville in Lexington? That would never happen, right? But that was a fantastic game to attend when I lived in Louisville. Weird watching your two alma maters facing off.

OP updated through Friday night.

Purdue hangs on to the end of the 4-line, Boise State slips back further but i still like their profile more than Colorado State, ultimately both of them probably need the auto bid to get in though.

VCU slips to the last team in, Dayton up to the thick of the conversation but still out. My gut says that the A10 is still a 1 bid league this year regardless of next weeks result.

Louisville was a 6 that year. That's slightly different than a 11 seed.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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OP updated through Friday night.

Purdue hangs on to the end of the 4-line, Boise State slips back further but i still like their profile more than Colorado State, ultimately both of them probably need the auto bid to get in though.

VCU slips to the last team in, Dayton up to the thick of the conversation but still out. My gut says that the A10 is still a 1 bid league this year regardless of next weeks result.

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Agreed on the A10

FM 949 said:

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Louisville was a 6 that year. That's slightly different than a 11 seed.

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Yeah, I agree. Was just having fun with reminiscing.

After this weekend, I will put where I think we will be. The bubble teams could still change because of bid thieves, but I think the top 32 will be locked in.

LouisvilleAg said:

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Like playing Louisville in Lexington? That would never happen, right? But that was a fantastic game to attend when I lived in Louisville. Weird watching your two alma maters facing off.

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We were the 3 seed that got the sweet 16 in San Antonio that year right? I always felt that we had a bigger challenge than we should have in the 3-6 matchup and were rewarded with the home games for the next round

Too bad Acie blew that layup