I would say the floor is way lower than most realize. If we lose each of the next 2 I could easily see us being a 7 seed. If you look at the resumes of those on the 7 line they aren't that different than where we are currently. And then a huge gap to the 8 seeds.

Going 1-1 may keep us at a 4 but it depends what everyone else does and we will be right in that 4/5 dividing line.

So all time (or maybe just like the past 20 years)… where do y'all rank Auburn's resume today?

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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I would say the floor is way lower than most realize. If we lose each of the next 2 I could easily see us being a 7 seed. If you look at the resumes of those on the 7 line they aren't that different than where we are currently. And then a huge gap to the 8 seeds.

Going 1-1 may keep us at a 4 but it depends what everyone else does and we will be right in that 4/5 dividing line.

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1-1 puts us much closer to the 5/6 line in my humble opinion and that leans 6. It's called recency bias. And recently we have not played very well.

Fquin said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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I would say the floor is way lower than most realize. If we lose each of the next 2 I could easily see us being a 7 seed. If you look at the resumes of those on the 7 line they aren't that different than where we are currently. And then a huge gap to the 8 seeds.

Going 1-1 may keep us at a 4 but it depends what everyone else does and we will be right in that 4/5 dividing line.

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1-1 puts us much closer to the 5/6 line in my humble opinion and that leans 6. It's called recency bias. And recently we have not played very well.

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In that case, Louisville should be 2 or 3 seed. They have lost one game in the past two months. Quality of competition matters. And fortunately or unfortunately, A&M has played its toughest schedule ever.

Recency of games is not on the team sheet for evaluation and is not supposed to come up in the discussion. This is to weight the importance of non conference action. Our non conference resume is head and shoulders above most of the competition around us and our profile numbers will keep us ahead of the Louisville/ Marquette / St. Marys type profiles so long as we win at LSU.

Hell of a game going on with Kansas @ Houston. Kansas has not performed to their no. 1 record from the preseason, but man, do i not want to see them in the tournament.

OP updated. Not much on this Monday night.

UCLA moves up a few spots, Kansas/Wake move down a few.

Two big nights coming up that will shape this thing.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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OP updated. Not much on this Monday night.

UCLA moves up a few spots, Kansas/Wake move down a few.

Two big nights coming up that will shape this thing.

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It is hard to consider the preseason no. 1 as a 7 let alone an 8. That is going to be a tough out.

any of the 8s or Uconn in the 2nd round are going to be trouble for 1seeds

Its a lot easier to consider them an 8 when you see they have 11 losses, including a q3, have been blown out by 30 multiple times and are #30 in WAB.

Still think they have some 2014 Kentucky vibes.

Agreed but these 8 seeds won't have Wichita or even a Gonzaga waiting for them...the collective of 1 seeds will be argulably the best in the past 20 years (on paper)

I do think that Wichita team was really really good though. Not as good as Auburn or maybe Duke this year, but very good.

I think that second game could be a huge challenge for Duke though if they draw a team like Kansas or UConn. They haven't played anyone as physical or as talented as those teams in like three months. Illinois' like whole team was sick around the time they played and other than that Clemson is the only decent team they've played and they lost that game.

Duke feels like a team that either gets knocked out the first weekend or they're going to the championship game.

I don't see a lot of teams beating up on Flagg.

bobinator said:

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Still think they have some 2014 Kentucky vibes.

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I think that's a good comparison. Preseason #1, that Kentucky team "only" had 9 losses at this point of the season (Kansas has 11) and wound up with an 8 seed making their deep run.

Yeah that SEC sucked. three teams made the tournament. Georgia finished tied for second with Kentucky at 12-6 and had a Torvik T-rank of 83. Truly impressively bad. 5 teams were ranked 100+.

Compare that to this year where there's two more teams and still the worst team in the league is ranked 78.

Will say that Kentucky team never got absolutely blasted like this Kansas team has though.

Was interested in the number of 1s that have made the final four so started a random search. Here are the results that can help you build your bracket for March Madness when the actual bracket comes out.

Since 2000, 24 tournaments, there have 96 one seeds. Only 33 have made the final four. That is about 34%.

0 1 seeds in the final four - 3 times (2006, 2011, 2023)
1 1 seeds in the final four - 10 times (2000, 2003, 2004, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2022)
2 1 seeds in the final four - 9 times (2001, 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2024)
3 1 seeds in the final four - 1 time (2015)
4 1 seeds in the final four - 1 time (2008)

So, in conclusion, most likely, the final four will either have only one 1 seed or two 1 seeds.

Of the 6 teams that I think are worthy of a 1 seed, I would rank them in this order without seeing a bracket.

Auburn
Houston
Florida
Tennessee
Alabama
Duke

What's your argument for Florida and Tennessee ahead of Alabama but Duke behind all of them.

I can see one line of thinking where you like resume numbers, so Duke drops, but that would put Alabama a lot higher, or an argument where you like the quality metrics but that would put Duke higher and drop Florida and Tennessee, but this seems kind of mixed.

I think Auburn, Houston, and Florida are complete teams that can attack either inside or outside. So whether the shooting is off or not, I think they can come up with points. I also think their defense is good enough.

Tennessee has a better defense and should be able to do the same, but I worry about their inside presence.

Alabama will eventually have an off night shooting. And they foul too much. That will eventually catch up with them.

Duke is at the bottom because they have not been tested physically and I wonder whether Flagg can hold up if he continually gets hammered by big forwards. All of their numbers are inflated due to very weak competition. They are talented, no doubt. But how much competition have they faced lately.

Holy ***** We needed that. And we need Manny to be March Manny. If we have that, we have 4 legit scoring threats.

BYU @ Iowa State going to double OT!

BYU takes down Iowa State!

bobinator said:

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Not me waiting for the Torvik and KenPom numbers to update

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We are up to 20 in KenPom at this moment.

Huge jump for our ORtg
115.9 > 117.0
53 > 40

We're gonna be matched with BYU again aren't we? They've gotta be a Saturday site and Wichita and Denver meet that criteria.

Biggest update of the year -

HUGE win for the Ags moves them back up to solidly a 3 (it helps that Iowa State lost too) - the 3 seed line is very bunched together with very little separating #8 through #15.

Locked Up: Georgia, Creighton, New Mexico
Eliminated: TCU

Moving Up: Texas A&M, BYU, Texas
Moving Down: San Diego State

miller0926 said:

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We're gonna be matched with BYU again aren't we? They've gotta be a Saturday site and Wichita and Denver meet that criteria.

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As of right now i think BYU is a 6 seed. Many will have them as a 7. Assuming they win on Saturday I really think the metrics will show they belong on the 6 line. If A&M does stick as a 3 then it is a fairly decent chance that we could see BYU in the second round in a 3/6. Certainly not a team i would want to see given how they are playing right now.

That said, even if we are in the same location, remember there are 2 pods in each location so they may still be on a completely different side of the bracket/region than us even if we are both in Denver.

Metrics starting to update

Ken pom moves from 22 to 20
Torvik from 25 to 24

WAB moves from 11 to 9

Yup. But it's also a fairly decent shot right now that the other 3 "host" teams for those 4 pods are UH, Iowa St., and Tech.. 3 Big 12 teams.

Only the top 4 seeds get preferential treatment on the geography though. They will go to a Saturday site but not necessarily one close by.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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A&m resume numbers have been updated:

KPI - moves from 13 to 10
SOR moves from 18 to 12
WAB moves from 11 to 8

A&M now owns the 8th best resume in the country. Huge gap to the top 7, decent sized gap between them and #9 St. John's

Gaps between St. John's at 9 to St Mary's at 19 are miniscule.

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So then theoretically we could be a 2 seed if we hold the line against LSU and win our first SEC tourney game?

Badace52 said:

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ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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A&m resume numbers have been updated:

KPI - moves from 13 to 10
SOR moves from 18 to 12
WAB moves from 11 to 8

A&M now owns the 8th best resume in the country. Huge gap to the top 7, decent sized gap between them and #9 St. John's

Gaps between St. John's at 9 to St Mary's at 19 are miniscule.

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So then theoretically we could be a 2 seed if we hold the line against LSU and win our first SEC tourney game?

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Yes.

It's shaping up to be really entertaining finish across the sport. Lots of potential situations based on so many teams still having a shot to gain or lose positioning to close out the year.