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Colleyville and others.

Since I reside in Albuquerque I tend to follow Mountain West Conference more closely than other conferences outside of SEC.

I think you ought to consider moving Boise State up to bubble status (or near bubble) based on recent performance- having knocked off New Mexico and Utah State (dominated both games) - coupled with good wins over St. Mary's and Clemson in OOC play.

They look really good right now - and will be a tough out in the MWC tournament (which they still might have to win to steal a NCAAT bid) and I think could do some damage in the NCAAT should they squeeze in.

Of course, unlike Utah State, who has no bad losses, both New Mexico and Boise State have a couple of Quad 3 losses.

Obviously, I'm cheering for the Lobos, but think that they, along with Utah State and San Diego State might be able to get an at large bid even if they don't win the MWC tournament- as long as they otherwise win out the remainder of the regular season (i.e.no more bad losses) and win a couple of games in Las Vegas.

So, MWC might still get 4 teams in...

Obviously - also depends on what happens to other bubble teams these next few weeks...

He does have Boise near the bubble, I agree they might be a little low though.

Also - if you get a chance to watch Donovan Dent play for the Lobos, you will see what should be an All American point guard. He is a Junior - and my choice for the Texas Aggies to throw a boatload of NIL $$$ at to see if we can get him to come to College Station next year and replace Wade Taylor - while our younger guards get up to speed...

Yeah. I thought they were too low.

I have them in the next 4 out category right now. Definitely in the mix. Got to win out. And hope for carnage around the bubble. And hope for no bid thieves.

I would use what we put out as a guide to where we think they are in the committee's eyes, not as a definitive fact. We have an idea of the formula but don't know THE formula.

Thanks. I agree that they need to win out and then probably win a couple of games in the tournament- though, i suspect that many do not believe that tournament performance (short of winning the whole thing and getting the autobid) has any impact on selection...

I took the night off last night to not write pissed off.

Bubble watch will be updated tomorrow morning. We will either be the last 3 or the first 4.

In regards to Boise state, I've always had them in the mix and if they win out they will be right there. They got one of their best wins of the season last night and dramatically improved their resume numbers. Ultimately they are in a similar position as New Mexico last year and as we know that required winning the tournament to get in. This years bubble is significantly weaker however so they do have an at large path if they keep playing like they did last night.

Agree. I would like to see 4 MWC teams make it in to the NCAAT (at the expense of tu not making it!)

OP Updated through Thursday night

After last week was tons of locks and very few eliminations - the opposite this week

Locked Up: None (likely to be many this weekend)
Eliminated: Santa Clara, Kansas State Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, Rutgers

Moving Up: Boise State, Vanderbilt
Moving Down: Texas A&M, Wake Forest

That's another statement loss for Texas. The Horns need to lose out in dramatic fashion. Terry could make a run at last in conference next year once he's not hindered by a lottery pick masking the team's ineptitude.

The Elite 8 run and wanting to retain players fond of the remaining staff forced Texas' hand. Hopefully this season's travails suffice to bring a close to the hapless remnants of the Beard regime.

OP Updated through Saturday night (Will be updated again in the morning to reflect Gonzaga/San Francisco)

Locked Up: Vanderbilt, BYU
Eliminated: George Mason, UCF

Moving Up: Texas Tech, Vanderbilt, Xavier
Moving Down: Arkansas, SMU, Texas

OP is updated to move Gonzaga up after last night's late night win and some minor movements looking at how the numbers came in.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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OP Updated through Thursday night

After last week was tons of locks and very few eliminations - the opposite this week

Locked Up: None (likely to be many this weekend)
Eliminated: Santa Clara, Kansas State Arizona State, Oregon State, USC, Rutgers

Moving Up: Boise State, Vanderbilt
Moving Down: Texas A&M, Wake Forest

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Agree with the 4 MWC conference teams now in.

IF we can somehow bounce back and take out the overall #1 seed on our home court Tuesday night, then win in Baton Rouge - I think we would be back up to the 3-seed line, allowing us to avoid a 1 seed until the Elite Eight - if we get that far.

BTHO Auburn to end our losing streak and get our MOJO back!!!

I think it will shake out eventually where there are 2 SEC 1 seeds and 2 SEC 2 seeds. Obviously, Auburn will be the overall no. 1 seed.

With Alabama finishing with their schedule, I would assume they will be a 2 seed. Of course, if they win out, then I think they are a definite 1.

Tennessee is a 1 if Alabama finishes like i think they will.

Florida is the other 1 possibility. But they must win out and have Tennessee drop one.

The other two non SEC teams that are competing for a 1 seed is Duke and Houston. I predict they win out and get the 1 seed.

So it is Auburn, Duke, Houston, SEC team.

That means if we are a 3 seed, we end up in Auburn or the other SEC bracket because the other two SEC teams mentioned above would be 2 seeds. If we are a 4 seed, we end up in Houston or Duke's bracket

If we end up a 5 seed, throw everything out the window because who knows.

Yes. If we win the last 2 we would be a near certainty for a 2 seed with a very slight (~3% chance) at a 2

How about chances at a 3 seed if we win our last 2 along with a couple wins in the conference tourney?

At this point we are equally likely to be in any of the brackets. We could be with any of the sec teams above us and still satisfy all of the bracketing principles since we are not top 4 of our conference and we only played each of Auburn, bama, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky once in the regular season meaning we can meet any of them as early as the sweet 16. So there really isn't anything that would tip the hand for what region we are.

AggieNattie said:

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How about chances at a 3 seed if we win our last 2 along with a couple wins in the conference tourney?

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If we win our last 2 we will be at least a 3 seed even with a 0-1 trip in the conference title I am completely sure of that with no doubt in my mind.

I see it as in we beat Auburn, we get a 3 seed. If we lose to Auburn, we are a 4 at best no matter what. That game just became very significant.

Yes but if we beat Auburn only to turn around and lose to LSU we won't be a 3. They are both equally important.

Agree

Agreed there. Do you think the committee would look at what we do in the conference tourney if we were trying to play for seeding?

Good point. I've pretty much seen conference tourneys as useless now. But it only caught my attention because I recall the guys on Selection Show saying that our win against Kentucky in the conference tourney solidified our NCAA tourney spot last year. And I thought maybe they do mean something.

OP Updated through Sunday night

Locked Up: Memphis
Eliminated: None

Moving Up: Illinois
Moving Down: Michigan

Pretty slow Sunday, Illinois scores a big blow out in Ann Arbor, Michigan State solidifies their spot as a 2 seed, Memphis finally reaches lock status and Drake escapes a bad Q4 loss

Here is my Monday morning update:

1 seeds:
Auburn
Duke
Houston
Alabama

2 seeds:
Tennessee
Michigan State
Florida
Wisconsin

3 seeds:
Purdue
Iowa State
Texas Tech
Arizona

4 seeds:
Kentucky
Michigan
Texas A&M
St. John's

5 seeds:
Clemson
Louisville
Missouri
Marquette

6 seeds:
Oregon
Kansas
Illinois
Mississippi State

7 seeds:
Maryland
Saint Mary's
Ole Miss
UCLA

8 seeds:
BYU
Creighton
Gonzaga
Memphis

9 seeds:
Baylor
UConn
Vanderbilt
West Virginia

10 seeds:
Ohio State
Georgia
Utah State
Indiana

11 seeds:
New Mexico
VCU

Last 4 In:
North Carolina
San Diego State
Xavier
Arkansas

First 4 Out:
Cincinnati
Oklahoma
Nebraska
SMU

Next 4 Out:
Boise State
Texas
Northwestern
TCU

Games of Note this week:
Monday
Kansas @ Houston - 1 seed at risk
UCLA @ Northwestern - bubble implications

Tuesday
LSU @ Kentucky - mid seed implications
Texas @ Mississippi State - mid seed/bubble implications
Auburn @ A&M - mid seed implications
BYU @ Iowa State - mid seed implications
Arizona State @ Arizona - mid seed implications
Baylor @ TCU - bubble implications
Indiana @ Oregon - bubble implications
Nebraska @ Ohio State - bubble implications
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt - bubble implications

Wednesday
Maryland @ Michigan - mid seed implications
Florida @ Alabama - 1 seed at risk
Colorado @ Texas Tech - mid seed implications
Missouri @ Oklahoma - mid seed/bubble implications
Wisconsin @ Minnesota - mid seed implications
Tennessee @ Ole Miss - 1 seed at risk
Kansas State @ Cincinnati - bubble implications

Thursday
Michigan State @ Iowa - mid seed implications

Friday
Purdue @ Illinois - mid seed implications
Colorado State @ Boise State - bubble implications

Saturday
St. John's @ Marquette - mid seed implications
Kentucky @ Missouri - mid seed implications
Mississippi State @ Arkansas - bubble implications
Penn State @ Wisconsin - mid seed implications
Iowa State @ Kansas State - mid seed implications
South Carolina @ Tennessee - 1 seed at risk
Alabama @ Auburn - 1 seed at risk
Texas A&M @ LSU - mid seed implications
Arizona @ Kansas - mid seed implications
Ole Miss @ Florida - 1 seed at risk
Duke @ North Carolina - bubble implications
Texas Tech @ Arizona State - mid seed implications
Houston @ Baylor - 1 seed at risk
Vanderbilt @ Georgia - bubble implications
UCF @ West Virginia - bubble implications
Oklahoma @ Texas - bubble implications

Sunday
Michigan @ Michigan State - mid seed implications

Conference Tournament Starts (Favored winner by ESPN Analytics)
Atlantic Sun - March 2 (Lipscomb)
Horizon - March 4 (Milwaukee)
Patriot - March 4 (Bucknell)
Sun Belt - March 4 (Arkansas State)
Big South - March 5 (High Point)
Ohio Valley - March 5 (Southeast Missouri State)
Northeast - March 5 (Central Connecticut)
Summit - March 5 (South Dakota State)
Missouri Valley - March 6 (Drake)
West Coast - March 6 (Gonzaga)
Coastal - March 7 (UNC-Wilmington)
Southern - March 7 (Samford)
America East - March 8 (Bryant)
Big Sky - March 8 (Northern Colorado)
Southland - March 9 (McNeese)
ACC - March 11 (Duke)
Big 12 - March 11 (Houston)
Conference USA - March 11 (Liberty)
Metro - March 11 (Quinnipiac)
SWAC - March 11 (Southern)
WAC - March 11 (Grand Canyon)
American - March 12 (Memphis)
Atlantic 10 - March 12 (VCU)
Big East - March 12 (St. John's)
Big Ten - March 12 (Michigan State)
Big West - March 12 (UC San Diego)
MEAC - March 12 (Norfolk State)
Mountain West - March 12 (New Mexico)
SEC - March 12 (Auburn)
MAC - March 13 (Akron)
Ivy League - March 15 (Yale)

I assume losing to Auburn and winning against LSU probably puts us at a 5 seed?

Wonder what 14 seed takes out Arizona.

Nope. Keeps us at a 4.

AggieNattie said:

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Nope. Keeps us at a 4.

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Yep

We need to lose out to drop to a 5

HossAg said:

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I assume losing to Auburn and winning against LSU probably puts us at a 5 seed?

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I wouldn't guarantee it. Losing to Auburn isn't a really big deal by itself. But if you couple it with the previous four games, it definitely could effect us. LSU is a must win game.

But beating Auburn would do wonders for us. It is possible. We usually play Auburn pretty well, it is at home, and they have just secured the SEC outright title so they might be in a hangover from celebrating, and they have Alabama after us. Lets hope they haven't stopped partying and are taking us lightly. Doubt it, but one can hope.

It is the type of loss that I could see Auburn having and then re-focusing and winning it all.

jja79 said:

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Wonder what 14 seed takes out Arizona.

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Assuming they win their conference tournaments, I have the 14 seeds as:

Samford
Akron
UNC-Wilimington
Lipscomb

Samford and Lipscomb would be the weakest of these four teams

I also wonder how the committee will treat Kentucky. With Jaxson Robinson's season over, one of their offensive threats no longer available, will Kentucky get a bad draw?