Still irritated by the Michigan and Memphis upset wins the other day. That ate 2 at large bids in 30 min. They lose those games and we are right there.
Now I don't see a path other than winning SEC. Beating Auburn is not an easy or likely task.

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65. Wyoming (48, 23-7, 13-5) Wyoming would represent a chance for the MWC to get a 4th team in which hasn't happened in a long time. The Cowboys really did next to nothing out of conference but have done just enough in conference beating Boise State and Colorado State to post a 4-4 Q1 record and be hanging right around the bubble. As long as they avoid a bad loss in the MWC tournament they have a good chance to secure an at large bid. (3/10 MWC Quarterfinals UNLV)

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Lunardi has them as Last 4 In. Interesting to me because their leading scorer from last season can't get on the court for us.

Updated through last night. Santa Clara loses a heartbreaker to officially send them to the NIT. Chattanooga wins maybe the game/finish of the season and punches their ticket.

NO games impacting the bubble tonight.

The craziness starts tomorrow and continues on Thursday and Friday with lots of last minute shifting and pushing to make the field.

If we lose to Florida we will likely be a 2 or 3 seed in the NIT. If we beat Florida and then lose to Auburn we are probably a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT. Beat Auburn and we would be no worse than a 1 seed in the NIT and it would be a crime to keep us out of the NCAAT imo.

The top 4 seed lines will host the first round games in the NIT If we are a 2 or 3 seed we would be paired up with a team like Fresno State or St. John's or Santa Clara (a team with a solid profile but was never really all that close to the bubble.

If we were a 1 seed we would be paired up with a team from a small conference hat won their conference regular season and then lost in the conference tournament. A team like Texas State would be the obvious choice (who we may get even if we are a 2 seed)

NIT first round is 3/15 and 3/16 so it would be a tight turnaround time between finding out the opponent and then hosting a game in College Station.

If we are a 1 or 2 seed we would also host the 2nd round March 19 and 20 and barring an upset would be more likely to see a team like Oregon, Oklahoma, Colorado, Virginia, etc.

Rutgers is in a very interesting spot. I think they're probably more secure than you currently have them, but if they go 0-1 in the big 10 tourney, they could still miss. Strange though because if they were not a top 4 seed, playing an easier game and going 1-1 would probably lock them in

The path is still there. Need teams like Indiana, SMU, Wyoming, Rutgers, Xavier to go down early in their tournaments.

ColleyvilleAg06 said:

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The path is still there. Need teams like Indiana, SMU, Wyoming, Rutgers, Xavier to go down early in their tournaments.

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Georgia St won the Sun Belt Championship last night. You can update them.

I hope Rutgers loses just to see what the committee does with them.

I do think there's a bit of a potential wild card in all of this bracketeering, and it's that we've really only had one normal selection since the NET was established. Last year was just wild with all of the schedule imbalances and of course the 2020 tournament was cancelled completely.

I have a hard time with Rutgers. What you do in non-conference has to matter and they absolutely sucked. And either the NET matters or it doesn't, they're way up in the 70's. But they do have some good wins that nobody else on the bubble has.

Rutgers had several bad losses out of conference, and then several bad losses in conference as well. Sure they beat Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin...but they also lost to those three teams as well...

9 of their 18 wins have come against quad 3/4. I'd have them out, and it shouldn't be close.

There have been 7 at large teams chosen with an RPI/NET between 60-71 in the last 15 years. So while rare, it does happen.

Sources: Oregon's Will Richardson will miss the Pac-12 Tournament due to a non-COVID illness. Averages 14.1 PPG.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 8, 2022

Can just about cross Oregon off the bubble list after this

Yeah but everyone knew the flaws with the RPI. That's what I meant by the NET being a wildcard, we don't have a lot of data on how much the committee will stick to it.

_lefraud_ said:

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Rutgers had several bad losses out of conference, and then several bad losses in conference as well. Sure they beat Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin...but they also lost to those three teams as well...

9 of their 18 wins have come against quad 3/4. I'd have them out, and it shouldn't be close.

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I would argue their resume is still a bit better than ours. 13 of our 19 wins are Q3/Q4 wins. So if they are way out, so should we.

I don't disagree. I didn't compare our resume to theirs. Ags have to win 2 games this week to even get into the discussion.

My point is that Rutgers is getting a ton of credit for wins against teams in the league that they also lost to. Should 3-3 vs Purdue, Illinois and Wisconsin erase all of their bad losses, in and out of conference?

Can somebody explain to me what the deal is with San Francisco being a virtual lock at this point? The WCC #4 team???? I don't see much on the resume other than two wins over BYU...

24 in the NET, 21 on KenPom. 9-7 against Q1/Q2 with only 1 L in the other quadrants. Plus, when you watch them they're clearly a solid team. I think they could win a game in the tournament.

Yeah I knew the computer numbers were good but...the WCC with 3 of the top 21 on KenPom is insane. They haven't really beaten anyone outside of Davidson and 2x BYU

Tamuco99 said:

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Yeah I knew the computer numbers were good but...the WCC with 3 of the top 21 on KenPom is insane. They haven't really beaten anyone outside of Davidson and 2x BYU

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The have that 1 loss to Portland but the rest are respectable. It helps when the conference is stronger and not as big of a numeric drag as some years. Some neutral site wins and a better non conference schedule and there you go.

Updated with new auto bids secured

Let's go Louisville, Clemson, and especially Butler!

and Oregon state

Boston college leads wake by 1 at the half. How far would wake fall with a loss?

Texags Meltdown said:

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Boston college leads wake by 1 at the half. How far would wake fall with a loss?

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I just looked at BC's net ranking and it's 160 while WF is at 39.

It's a Q3 loss for Wake Forest, but I'm guessing they'd still be on the bubble and no longer a lock for a bye.

Far enough that it's worth rooting for BC.

TCU is in. They can lose to Texas tomorrow and they are in.

Far enough that I assume there's no way BC will actually win

Yeah. There's no way enough teams can win enough games to pass them.

Boy this BC wake game is ugly.

If they lose, I think there is a good chance Wake is out unless everyone behind them does something similar. Their resume is about where I think we'd have been had we avoided the couple bad losses we took to Mizzou and SC. Losing to BC at a neutral is a bad final impression for the committee.

bobinator said:

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Yeah. There's no way enough teams can win enough games to pass them.

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Yeah. Beating Tech and Kansas in final 2 weeks of season locked them in. Take away one of those wins and things might have been interesting for them with a loss tomorrow.

In regards to TCU I think they are 99.9% in. But if teams like Oklahoma win the big 12, and Florida wins the sec, and Oregon win the Pac 12 and it's Dayton over Davidson in the a10 final…. If enough crazy things happen and spots start disappearing quickly I didn't feel comfortable making them a 100% lock.

Chances are even with a loss that they will be a 100% lock by the time Sunday rolls around though.

Wake is in a somewhat similar bucket but just even less secure. And a potential loss by them today would be WAY worse than losing to Texas. I think it's likely they still get in with a loss but that they probably fall down at least to the play in game. Let's go BC get it together!

BC just brought it back

Bc vs Wake is a wild game

You had to pick Florida winning the SEC for your example???

I don't think their buckets are all that similar. TCU could get massacred in their game and it's not going to send them down the seed line much, if at all. At least seven or eight teams would have to do stuff to pass them.

If Wake loses they're going to fall at least a few spots so teams will pass them without having to do anything. They're still probably okay, but only 2-3 teams would need to do some stuff.