Updated Sunday Morning 2:15 PM
Now in order of projected Seed
1 Seeds:
1. West Coast Gonzaga
2. Pac 12 - Arizona
3. Big 12 Kansas
4. Baylor
2 Seeds
5. Kentucky
6. Auburn
7. Big East Villanova
8. SEC Tennessee
3 Seeds
9. Duke
10. Texas Tech
11. (Big Ten Placeholder) Purdue Note: Even with a win on Sunday they won't have the resume to move up). With a loss they also stay a 3.
12. Wisconsin
4 Seeds
13. UCLA
14. Illinois
15. Arkansas
16. Houston (Assuming a win on Sunday, if they lose they slip to a 5 seed and Providence moves up)
5 Seeds
17. Providence
18. UConn
19. Iowa (Regardless of win/loss on Sunday)
20. St. Mary's
6 Seeds
21. Texas
22. USC
23. LSU
24. Colorado State
7 Seeds
25. Alabama
26. Mountain West Boise State
27. OVC Murray State
28. Michigan State
8 Seeds
29. Ohio State
30. San Diego State
31. Seton Hall
32. TCU
9 Seeds
33. North Carolina
34. Creighton
35. Marquette
36. Iowa State
10 Seeds
37. Memphis with a win will move to a 9 seed ahead of Creighton, will stay a 10 with a loss
38. ACC Virginia Tech
39. San Francisco
40. MVC Loyola Chicago
11 Seeds
------------All teams below this line are in danger of being sent to Dayton as a last 4 in---------------
41. Miami
42. Indiana (39, 20-13, 9-11) The Hoosiers run through the Big 10 Tourney, beating Michigan and Illinois should be enough to put them in, although losing in the semis may send them to the last 4 in game. Prior to the Big 10 Tournament they also beat Ohio State and Purdue and have no bad losses. (Regular Season Over).
43. Texas A&M (42, 22-12, 9-9) Couldn't get the auto bid to remove all doubt but this profile holds up well against the rest of the bubble competition with good wins Arkansas (2), Auburn, Florida (2), @ Bama and in Vegas vs. Notre Dame. This profile is good enough to not only be in, but really should be avoiding the last 4 in. Going to Dayton would be within the margin of error and it wouldn't be shocking but objectively there isn't much evidence to suggest that is the right thing to do. I feel very comfortable with A&M getting an at large bid, not really sweating that. (Regular Season Over)
-------------------------Projected last 4 in -----------------------
44. Davidson, (38: 26-6, 15-3) Advancing to the finals for win #26 is almost certainly enough. They didn't challenge themselves on the schedule too much with only 4 games vs. Quad 1 but they did beat Alabama and now Saint Louis on a neutral court plus have a win @VCU. (Regular Season Over)
45. Michigan (34, 17-14, 11-9) It is a good thing for big blue fans that they won @ Ohio State to end the regular season, had they not won that one, the loss to Indiana might have spelled doom for them. As it is now, I still think they sneak in, but are likely headed to Dayton. (Regular Season Over)
12 Seeds
46. Notre Dame (53, 21-10, 15-5) Perhaps moving them to lock status going into the ACCT was a tad premature. They still should be in good shape but there is a decent chance they are among the last 4 in. And anytime you have a chance to be in last 4 in and there is still so much basketball to be played with others that can pass them, that lands them back on the bubble (Regular Season Over)
47. Rutgers (77, 18-12, 12-8) Rutgers losing to Iowa in a game that wasn't really ever competitive in their only Big 10 tourney game certainly doesn't compare well to what Indiana, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma have done this week. Finishing in 4th place in the Big 10 and 6 Quad 1 wins has to count for something but is it enough to outweigh EVERYTHING else (ugly loss at home to #319 Lafayette, plus 2 Q3 losses @UMass and at home against Maryland). They can't feel great about their chances with a NET ranking where it is and if they do get in they are headed to Dayton for sure. (Regular Season Over)
48. CUSA - UAB
49. A10 - Richmond
50. Summit South Dakota St.
13 Seeds
51. Southern Chattanooga
52. America East - Vermont
53. WAC New Mexico State
54. MAC Akron
14 Seeds
55. Ivy Yale
56. Big Sky Montana State
57. Big South Longwood
58. MAAC St. Peter's
15 Seeds
59. Patriot Colgate
60. CAA Delaware
61. Atlantic Sun Jacksonville State
62. Big West CS Fullerton
16 Seeds
63. Sun Belt Georgia State
64. MEAC Norfolk State
Last 4 in/Play in Games
65. Horizon Wright State
66. NEC Bryant
67. SWAC Texas Southern
68. Southland Texas A&M CC
-----------------------THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE---------------------------------
69. Wyoming (50, 24-8, 13-5) A week ago I would have said Wyoming was in as long as they avoided a bad loss in the MWCT. That changed with how well the bubble did this week, even though their loss to Boise State was not a bad loss. The Cowboys really did next to nothing out of conference and in conference all they really did was split with Boise State and Colorado State. They are extremely vulnerable if anyone else is able to play their way in. (Regular Season Over)
70. Xavier (41, 18-13, 8-11) Lost in the 1st round of the tournament to Butler for their 8th loss in 10 games. Good work out of conference beating Ohio State, winning on a neutral court vs. Virginia Tech but that won't be enough to overcome a terrible end to the year. (Regular Season Over)
71. SMU (44, 23-8, 13-4) Probably comes up 1 win short by falling to Memphis in the semis. They did pretty well in conference play splitting with Houston and winning twice against Memphis but a couple bad losses to Missouri and a Q4 loss to Loyola Marymount don't help when the quantity of wins against Quad 1 and 2 just isn't there. (Regular Season Over)
72. Wake Forest (48, 23-9, 13-7) Wake Forest is officially in trouble after a bad first round exit to NET #160 Boston College. Their only Quad 1 win came on December 4th at Virginia Tech. That lack of quality wins was nearly cancelled out by the fact that they had been 17-0 vs. Q3 and Q4 and avoided the bad loss. Oops, can't say that anymore. Best OOC win was against Northwestern. The best thing about the profile is going 13-7 in the ACC but the ACC is down significantly this year. (Regular Season Over)
-----------GAP, tracking as teams that will get brought up by the committee but no real case to be made ahead of Wyoming-------------------------
73. Oklahoma (40, 18-15, 7-11) Phew the sooners gave a scare by upsetting Baylor and nearly knocking off Texas Tech. Ultimately, I think they have come up just short and despite how many good wins they have, that record is just too much to overcome. (Regular Season Over)
74. BYU (54, 20-10, 9-6) a 5th place WCC finish, a Q4 loss to Pacific and an early exit in the WCC tournament probably doom this profile with the positive side of the ledger really only being wins against San Diego State, Missouri State, St. Mary's and @ San Francisco. (Regular Season Over)
75. North Texas (47, 22-6, 16-2) UNT looked solid for a bid as recently as a week ago riding a 15 game winning streak, but after losing to UTEP in the finale and then taking another Q3 loss to La Tech in te tournament it looks highly likely that UNT will be NIT bound. (Regular Season Over)
76. Florida (59, 19-13, 9-9) The loss to A&M should send them to the NIT. Making the NCAAT would be a shocking committee decision at this point despite their wins over Ohio State and Auburn. (Regular Season Over)
77. VCU(56, 21-9, 14-4) Lost their last 2 when both of them were probably must wins. They just don't have the same quality of wins as the rest of the bubble are racking up this week, especially when you hold their loss to Wagner against them. They are NIT bound, Best wins are @Dayton, @Davidson, Syracuse, @Richmond. (Regular Season Over)
78. Dayton (58, 23-10, 14-4) Lost to Richmond in the semis, that combined with 4 really bad losses is too much to overcome despite their early season win against Kansas. (Regular Season Over)
No games remaining with a rooting Interest
