Hop said:
DukeMu said:
TXAggie2011 said:
Quote:
What is surprising is that we are justifying mediocre attendance by A&M basketball fans with teams ranked 13, 29, 36, 41 in RPI. You are describing Turgeon's teams as a huge drop-off from BCG's last team, and the numbers on paper don't seem to support that argument...at least in an analysis of historical RPI's. Is there a a better objective measure to look at?
29, 36, and 41 are a dropoff from 17.
But the thing is, our attendance under Turgeon was better, by and large, than it was under BCG. I'm not really sure what y'all are debating; y'all both seem to be working with somewhat false premises.
Attendance was better in 2010 than in 2007, the one year Turgeon had a better RPI. It was also better in 2008 and 2009. And even when it fell off in 2011, it was significantly better than 2005 and 2006.
Texas A&M attendance:
2005: 8,147 (21) 387
2006: 8,133 (22) 370
2007: 9,812 (27) 363 [373.3]
2008: 10,343 (25) 413
2009: 9,438 (24) 393
2010: 9,889 (24) 412
2011: 9,000 (24) 375 [398.25]
So...Turgeon averaged more butts in seats.
The record attendance for an Aggie game was Feb 27, 2010 of 13,717 against t.u., who watched a 74-58 win against the horns.
Let's see a real drop in attendance:
Year/attendance/wins/ att perwin
2012: 7112 (14) 508
2013: 6331 (18) 351
2014: 5367 (18) 298
2015: 6927 (21) 330
2016: 8955 (28) 320
2017: 8161 (16) 510 [386.2]
2018: about 8500? (22) est. 386
Performance and wins are clearly the most important factors in attendance.
Turgeon drew the most fans at home games per win while winning 24.25 games/season. BCG averaged 23.3 wins/season and actually drew the lowest attendance/win. Kennedy 19.57 wins/year
Kennedy's numbers for attendance/win are skewed by underperforming in 2012 and 2017 vs. expectations. Aggie fans then managed their expectations in 2013 - 2016. They recognized the increase in talent and Stansbury's input. One could say attendance underperformed in 2015 and 2016, but the dumpster fire from 2012-2014 after 6 NCAAT appearances in a row dampened enthusiasm.
2018 attendance match possibly performance from 2005-2016 on average. Going forward, I'd expect to stick to this average, and any reduction in game attendance would match performance.
With no move this year and players in need of development outside Davis and Gilder (if they return), there is no question that 2018-2019 will be Kennedy's most challenging. The head coaching talent and player talent in the SEC is waaaaaayy up compared to when A&M entered the league.
the Ags could win 25. They could go 0.500. We'll see.
At 7 years each:
BCG + Turgeon = 24 wins, 9252 avg attend, 6 NCAAT, 1 NIT, 2 Sweet 16s
Kennedy = 19.5 wins, ~7336 avg attend, 2 NCAAT, 1 NIT, 2 Sweet 16s
So BMAs have to see the data, and realize IF they want more fans and excitement, then a coach who brings more wins and consistent play is the answer. Sweet 16s in 2 out of 3 years and win over UNC is a buffer...is it a 1 or 2 year buffer??
The fans IMO seem to act appropriately with ticket sales. A&M has to decide whether it is serious about MBB or not, particularly if next year resembles 2017. It's really hard to predict how 2 JUCO players in 2019 can effectively replace RW and Hogg...and remember, we lose Wilson on eligibility. Tthe greatest impediment to a better regular season and possibly advancing farther in the NCAAT wasn't Hogg or RW's suspensions...it was Wilson's injury. It could be argued that it better prepares TJ Starks for next season.
The flaw in your analysis is thinking that 500-1000 attendance swings are somehow significant in the bigger picture of revenues. Also, a good portion of the attendance increases come in the form of students who show up for big games or when the team is good...and that has very little impact on revenue. Season tickets and donations drive long term revenues...and that drives decisions from the AD. Overall financial health of any major collegiate athletic program comes from season tickets and donations. I've never seen a historical chart plotting season tickets for basketball. I think that would paint us a more accurate picture. From conversations through the years w admin I've had, season tickets since 2007 have fluctuated between 4,000 and 6,000. I know Byrne was very discouraged that season ticket sales didn't improve after investing so much into facilities/coaches and the consistent winning between 2006-2011. I definitely believe his disappontment contributed to his coaching search strategy in 2011.
Subtraction issues? It's worse than you claim.
Between 2012-2014, TAMU averaged 6270 at MBB down from around 9300 on average the previous 7 years.
That's a 3000 fan drop per game from the BCG and Turgeon eras. Assuming about 9 OOC home games and 9 in conference home games and $25/seat = $1.3M in lost revenue in ticket sales and $600K in concessions = $2M or BK's salary/year. Yet that was not enough to fire him.
Then about 8500 in attendance the past 3 years certainlywon't be enough to sway removing Kennedy from the HC position.
The points you missed:
1. It's not the fault of the fans - their attendance and enthusiasm is directly related to the team winning
2. It's not Turge's fault - he drew more fans per win than BCG or Kennedy.
3. The fault is the BMAs and AD for not making and effort to build a consistent winner. Agreed that Byrne got lucky twice with Gillispie and Turgeon looking for a bargain.
I will remind you that the thoughts re: Creighton are exactly the same excuses used to argue why we could not land Buzz Williams after years 3 and 5 of the Kennedy era. Buzz would never leave Marquette - they draw too many fans, and are a "basketball school!!!"
The X-factor that did not register for some was the demise of the original Big East. Buzz left while the gettin' was good for a school that's barely cared 2 ****s about MBB, and with a LOT LESS $$$ that Texas A&M to support them. We could money whip Buzz right now and land him. This would have been a good year - we don't know what our talent will look like in a year. Who knows how the JUCOs will work out. We haven't have much luck with JUCOs - but Ags always support the players and I hope Mahan and co. succeed.
Have to hope for the best, but as we saw after 2017 a 0.500 season isn't enough to eject BK. It is what it is. Some thought there was hope after Jimbo was hired, that a concerted effort by the AD re: revenue sports was real, but it appears just to be football centric.