SG Brandon Mahan Info (Committed to A&M Today)

9,387 Views | 123 Replies | Last: 5 yr ago by Hop
TXAggie2011
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Quote:

So you lose 500 season tickets. That is a blip on the financial landscape for the admin.
How does this mesh with the argument that if attendance were higher and more stable, we'd be able to get rid of coaches we don't want?

If 2017 attendance was 500 higher, we'd be in the top 50. How many blips higher do we need in order to get rid of coaches we don't want?

And put the Parkinson's aside for a moment and address why other athletic departments can be many blips below us in attendance and get rid of coaches they don't want?
bobinator
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I think your mistake in this argument is thinking there's a significant number of people who want to get rid of Kennedy.
TXAggie2011
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bobinator said:

I think your mistake in this argument is thinking there's a significant number of people who want to get rid of Kennedy.
No.

I most definitely don't think there is a "significant number of people who want to get rid of Kennedy" and I've been arguing the entire time that he's still here because the people that matter want him here.

Hop's much closer to arguing that people, of any amount, want to get rid of him.
bobinator
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Yeah but I think it goes beyond just the people that matter wanting him here. Like I think even most of the people that don't matter think he's doing a good job. I actually think your average fan on the street thinks more of Kennedy than the average person in our administration.
Hop
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The argument meshes. If A&M had 10,000 season tickets with a lot of attached donations, losing that revenue is a big risk and a motivating factor for the admin to make quicker changes. If the risk is 500 season tickets at $300 a pop, that's $150k...a drop in the bucket.

As to why it has taken much longer than other similar programs...because right when it gets time to look at a change, he rattled off a Sweet 16 run.

Can you name a program outside of a blue blood that has fired a coach after going to the Sweet 16 2 of 3 years for performance?

I'm not even sure a blue blood has fired a coach in that three year scenario.

Plus, the Parkinson's is a factor. I know those on this board (myself included) understands there's more to the story than going to the Sweet 16 twice, but it is the reason along w the Parkinson's diagnosis.

If A&M had a money machine in place w the basketball program, they wouldn't have hired Kennedy in the first place. Second, they would have made a move to reassign him immediately upon hearing the diagnosis...and certainly after year three. But there was no urgency to change in those first three years because the program had no significant revenue streams to protect. The team could go 0-16 and they would still sell 4000 to the same old season ticket holders like me. Then, the team won in 2016 and now 2018. You arent firing anybody with that three year record. You have to admit, most coaching tenures don't go like this one has gone. This has been very unique and strange to say the least.
bobinator
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Hop said:

But there was no urgency to change in those first three years because the program had no significant revenue streams to protect. The team could go 0-16 and they would still sell 4000 to the same old season ticket holders like me.
Another thing that could have made a change after year three or four was having an AD that really valued basketball and was willing to make a move even without the fan base calling for it, but we didn't have that either.

Might as well hope for the best now because there's no point trying to rewrite history, let's hope these juco guys can ball and see what happens.
TXAggie2011
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I'm not arguing that he should have been fired after this season. I've said all year that he won't get fired, and that he shouldn't get fired, if he got far enough in the tournament.

I'm arguing the notion that our attendance should prevent us from having the institutional willpower and/or financial capability getting rid of coaches we don't want in a timely fashion. If that's preventing firing (or reassigning) Kennedy, that's a unique A&M leadership problem as there are plenty of institutions outside the 10 or so programs that have 10,000 season ticket holders that get rid of coaches they don't want in a timely fashion.
Quote:

The argument meshes. If A&M had 10,000 season tickets with a lot of attached donations, losing that revenue is a big risk and a motivating factor for the admin to make quicker changes. If the risk is 500 season tickets at $300 a pop, that's $150k...a drop in the bucket.
Are you suggesting that season ticket holders at these schools with big attendance numbers bolt when the team doesn't do well?

One of the main problems I have with how this discussion has morphed is that it starts with a critique of how we run away from Reed Arena except when the team is good, and how if we were good fans we'd come all the time, but then we end up here talking about how the "properly supported" programs that can get rid of bad coaches apparently have thousands of season ticket holders threatening to quit if they aren't winning.
TXAggie2011
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bobinator said:

Yeah but I think it goes beyond just the people that matter wanting him here. Like I think even most of the people that don't matter think he's doing a good job. I actually think your average fan on the street thinks more of Kennedy than the average person in our administration.
Ok
Aston04
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Thread has ventured just a tad off-topic. Not a bk fan boy, but maybe this thread should be about this commit.
Mikeyshooter
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bobinator said:

Yeah but I think it goes beyond just the people that matter wanting him here. Like I think even most of the people that don't matter think he's doing a good job. I actually think your average fan on the street thinks more of Kennedy than the average person in our administration.

The average fan on the street doesn't even know who the coach is and wouldn't recognize him if he knocked on their front door.
DTP02
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DukeMu
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Hop said:

DukeMu said:

TXAggie2011 said:


Quote:

What is surprising is that we are justifying mediocre attendance by A&M basketball fans with teams ranked 13, 29, 36, 41 in RPI. You are describing Turgeon's teams as a huge drop-off from BCG's last team, and the numbers on paper don't seem to support that argument...at least in an analysis of historical RPI's. Is there a a better objective measure to look at?
29, 36, and 41 are a dropoff from 17.

But the thing is, our attendance under Turgeon was better, by and large, than it was under BCG. I'm not really sure what y'all are debating; y'all both seem to be working with somewhat false premises.

Attendance was better in 2010 than in 2007, the one year Turgeon had a better RPI. It was also better in 2008 and 2009. And even when it fell off in 2011, it was significantly better than 2005 and 2006.

Texas A&M attendance:

2005: 8,147 (21) 387
2006: 8,133 (22) 370
2007: 9,812 (27) 363 [373.3]

2008: 10,343 (25) 413
2009: 9,438 (24) 393
2010: 9,889 (24) 412
2011: 9,000 (24) 375 [398.25]



So...Turgeon averaged more butts in seats.

The record attendance for an Aggie game was Feb 27, 2010 of 13,717 against t.u., who watched a 74-58 win against the horns.

Let's see a real drop in attendance:

Year/attendance/wins/ att perwin

2012: 7112 (14) 508
2013: 6331 (18) 351
2014: 5367 (18) 298

2015: 6927 (21) 330
2016: 8955 (28) 320
2017: 8161 (16) 510 [386.2]
2018: about 8500? (22) est. 386


Performance and wins are clearly the most important factors in attendance.

Turgeon drew the most fans at home games per win while winning 24.25 games/season. BCG averaged 23.3 wins/season and actually drew the lowest attendance/win. Kennedy 19.57 wins/year

Kennedy's numbers for attendance/win are skewed by underperforming in 2012 and 2017 vs. expectations. Aggie fans then managed their expectations in 2013 - 2016. They recognized the increase in talent and Stansbury's input. One could say attendance underperformed in 2015 and 2016, but the dumpster fire from 2012-2014 after 6 NCAAT appearances in a row dampened enthusiasm.

2018 attendance match possibly performance from 2005-2016 on average. Going forward, I'd expect to stick to this average, and any reduction in game attendance would match performance.

With no move this year and players in need of development outside Davis and Gilder (if they return), there is no question that 2018-2019 will be Kennedy's most challenging. The head coaching talent and player talent in the SEC is waaaaaayy up compared to when A&M entered the league.

the Ags could win 25. They could go 0.500. We'll see.

At 7 years each:

BCG + Turgeon = 24 wins, 9252 avg attend, 6 NCAAT, 1 NIT, 2 Sweet 16s

Kennedy = 19.5 wins, ~7336 avg attend, 2 NCAAT, 1 NIT, 2 Sweet 16s


So BMAs have to see the data, and realize IF they want more fans and excitement, then a coach who brings more wins and consistent play is the answer. Sweet 16s in 2 out of 3 years and win over UNC is a buffer...is it a 1 or 2 year buffer??

The fans IMO seem to act appropriately with ticket sales. A&M has to decide whether it is serious about MBB or not, particularly if next year resembles 2017. It's really hard to predict how 2 JUCO players in 2019 can effectively replace RW and Hogg...and remember, we lose Wilson on eligibility. Tthe greatest impediment to a better regular season and possibly advancing farther in the NCAAT wasn't Hogg or RW's suspensions...it was Wilson's injury. It could be argued that it better prepares TJ Starks for next season.







The flaw in your analysis is thinking that 500-1000 attendance swings are somehow significant in the bigger picture of revenues. Also, a good portion of the attendance increases come in the form of students who show up for big games or when the team is good...and that has very little impact on revenue. Season tickets and donations drive long term revenues...and that drives decisions from the AD. Overall financial health of any major collegiate athletic program comes from season tickets and donations. I've never seen a historical chart plotting season tickets for basketball. I think that would paint us a more accurate picture. From conversations through the years w admin I've had, season tickets since 2007 have fluctuated between 4,000 and 6,000. I know Byrne was very discouraged that season ticket sales didn't improve after investing so much into facilities/coaches and the consistent winning between 2006-2011. I definitely believe his disappontment contributed to his coaching search strategy in 2011.
Subtraction issues? It's worse than you claim.

Between 2012-2014, TAMU averaged 6270 at MBB down from around 9300 on average the previous 7 years.

That's a 3000 fan drop per game from the BCG and Turgeon eras. Assuming about 9 OOC home games and 9 in conference home games and $25/seat = $1.3M in lost revenue in ticket sales and $600K in concessions = $2M or BK's salary/year. Yet that was not enough to fire him.



Then about 8500 in attendance the past 3 years certainlywon't be enough to sway removing Kennedy from the HC position.

The points you missed:

1. It's not the fault of the fans - their attendance and enthusiasm is directly related to the team winning

2. It's not Turge's fault - he drew more fans per win than BCG or Kennedy.

3. The fault is the BMAs and AD for not making and effort to build a consistent winner. Agreed that Byrne got lucky twice with Gillispie and Turgeon looking for a bargain.


I will remind you that the thoughts re: Creighton are exactly the same excuses used to argue why we could not land Buzz Williams after years 3 and 5 of the Kennedy era. Buzz would never leave Marquette - they draw too many fans, and are a "basketball school!!!"

The X-factor that did not register for some was the demise of the original Big East. Buzz left while the gettin' was good for a school that's barely cared 2 ****s about MBB, and with a LOT LESS $$$ that Texas A&M to support them. We could money whip Buzz right now and land him. This would have been a good year - we don't know what our talent will look like in a year. Who knows how the JUCOs will work out. We haven't have much luck with JUCOs - but Ags always support the players and I hope Mahan and co. succeed.

Have to hope for the best, but as we saw after 2017 a 0.500 season isn't enough to eject BK. It is what it is. Some thought there was hope after Jimbo was hired, that a concerted effort by the AD re: revenue sports was real, but it appears just to be football centric.



DukeMu
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bobinator said:

Hop said:

But there was no urgency to change in those first three years because the program had no significant revenue streams to protect. The team could go 0-16 and they would still sell 4000 to the same old season ticket holders like me.
Another thing that could have made a change after year three or four was having an AD that really valued basketball and was willing to make a move even without the fan base calling for it, but we didn't have that either.

Might as well hope for the best now because there's no point trying to rewrite history, let's hope these juco guys can ball and see what happens.

Hyman was told that his role was to finish the Kyle renovation and stand down on everything else...after the idiotic suspension of defensive players on the football team just before the 2013 season...that may have cost A&M the MNC.

Alcohol, tobacco, and opioids kill 2.7 million each year. Cannibis = 0.

http://www.drugwarfacts.org/chapter/causes_of_death





TXAggie2011
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If this turns into a weed thread, we'll have just about covered everything. Won't need any other threads. It's all here.

We can argue about weed rules existing but they do. It is against all sorts of rules and players shouldn't do itA&M shouldn't get into the business of excusing rulebreakers because they might win a championship.
wtr1975
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Keep it up Coach Kennedy!
DukeMu
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TXAggie2011 said:

If this turns into a weed thread, we'll have just about covered everything. Won't need any other threads. It's all here.

We can argue about weed rules existing but they do. It is against all sorts of rules and players shouldn't do itA&M shouldn't get into the business of excusing rulebreakers because they might win a championship.

Are you going to round up all the underage drinkers?
Double Diamond
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A&M not perusing Buzz Williams will be one of the real shames. Perfect fit.
Hop
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DukeMu said:

bobinator said:

Hop said:

But there was no urgency to change in those first three years because the program had no significant revenue streams to protect. The team could go 0-16 and they would still sell 4000 to the same old season ticket holders like me.
Another thing that could have made a change after year three or four was having an AD that really valued basketball and was willing to make a move even without the fan base calling for it, but we didn't have that either.

Might as well hope for the best now because there's no point trying to rewrite history, let's hope these juco guys can ball and see what happens.

Hyman was told that his role was to finish the Kyle renovation and stand down on everything else...after the idiotic suspension of defensive players on the football team just before the 2013 season...that may have cost A&M the MNC.

Alcohol, tobacco, and opioids kill 2.7 million each year. Cannibis = 0.

http://www.drugwarfacts.org/chapter/causes_of_death







Yeah, A&M hires an AD and marching orders are football, football, football. That's because nobody cares about supporting basketball which has been my point all along.
TXAggie2011
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Eric "M. E." Hyman and his A&M bosses' lack of ambition and ball sacks isn't the fault of the A&M fan base.
Hop
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TXAggie2011 said:

Eric "M. E." Hyman and his A&M bosses' lack of ambition and ball sacks isn't the fault of the A&M fan base.
Hyman has ambition...to do what he was told to do so he'd get his seven figure check. He was told to babysit the new Kyle Field because that is the crown jewel of Aggies sports...the only sport A&M fans have historically supported financially at an elite level.

If A&M fans valued basketball and provided large donations for the basketball program, the bosses would have told Hyman to protect their investment and make sure the program wins at any cost to keep the large donations and revenues flowing.
 
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