FYI - If he is drafted in the top 15 it is unlikely that he spends the entire season in the D-League. I could only find one player from last year's draft class (Georgios Papagiannis) who has spent the majority of their time in the D-League. Only 3 others have even popped down for a game or two before being brought back. Williams would be foolish to stay if he is a top 15 pick.

The data out there also supports that most NBA lottery picks that returned to school ended up not improving their ranking or actually decreasing their ranking.

Again, he may stay, but the $$$ isn't going to be the reason.

bobinator showed one of the NBA Draft mocks from Feb. 2016 (can't remember which one, but like DraftExpress or of that ilk), and about 10 or 11 (about 1/3rd) of the guys projected as first round picks in the Feb. 2016 mock ended up not declaring. A couple of guys who didn't declare were even predicted lottery picks.

That said, Robert Williams has seemed to gradually move higher and higher on the mock drafts out there. Like to almost a border-line top-10 pick. So thinking he is mostly likely gone does seem to make the most sense. You never know for sure of course because every personal case is different and it wouldn't be shocking never-seen-before news if he did stay one more year, but does seem most likely he will go.

Remember when Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah, and Al Horford all decided to return to Florida together instead of go to NBA to try to win back-to-back titles? Donovan must have been high as a kite that day.

It was basically 1/3 of their first round didn't even declare, and another third ended up not being in the first round.

Like I've been saying, there's a big difference between internet buzz and anonymous scouts and what actually happens.

free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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SECTAMU#1 said:

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GE said:

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SunrayAg said:

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He is projected as a first half of the first round pick, which means he is projected to be a multi millionaire.

Odds he leaves ... 100%.

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100% is false. Closer to 100% than 0% but not 100%.

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If 100% is false, then the odds are approximately 99.999%

Robert will enter the draft. Count on it.

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Would you give me betting odds consistent with your position?

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Would you be willing to risk a minimum of $10,000 on that position?

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If I could do it in Vegas then probably. The dollars if I win are WAAAY too high to bet a random person on the Internet. What betting odds would 99.999% chsnce translate to? 10,000 to 1?

The fact that this team is horrible and has a lottery pick player is damning on Kennedy, as if that was required. It was clear in his first season that he sucked.

Pumpkinhead said:

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I chuckled a moment at this because of what I do for a living (design and code simulation/statistical analysis software used in engineering courses at many universities, including A&M).

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LOL, I just had some HS competition math students confuse the difference on a recent test.

Do you hire any university students? I have an aspiring data scientist looking for a summer internship.

Gone. 100% gone. Will ride the NBA bench for a year then start working into a rotation.

You really think broke butt college life is better than NBA bench warmer? That is politics board levels of crazy there

We need to make sure he is happy here so
he can represent us well.

Bill Russell had a nice, long career without much of an offensive game.

GE said:

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free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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SECTAMU#1 said:

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GE said:

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SunrayAg said:

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He is projected as a first half of the first round pick, which means he is projected to be a multi millionaire.

Odds he leaves ... 100%.

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100% is false. Closer to 100% than 0% but not 100%.

---

If 100% is false, then the odds are approximately 99.999%

Robert will enter the draft. Count on it.

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Would you give me betting odds consistent with your position?

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Would you be willing to risk a minimum of $10,000 on that position?

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If I could do it in Vegas then probably. The dollars if I win are WAAAY too high to bet a random person on the Internet. What betting odds would 99.999% chsnce translate to? 10,000 to 1?

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Yeah, I somehow doubt you'd go and wager $10,000 on Robert Williams not entering the draft, even with a astronomical payout.

I get the point you were making that the odds he was saying were exaggerated, just think it's silly to ask if you can actually bet that.

GE said:

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knoxtom said:

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Gone. 100% gone. Will ride the NBA bench for a year then start working into a rotation.

You really think broke butt college life is better than NBA bench warmer? That is politics board levels of crazy there

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6th pick in the draft makes more in his first year than the 18th pick makes his first two years combined. Really depends on where he is projected to go leading up to the draft and what the likelihood is of making a roster vs being in the D league. College life is much more comfortable and better than D league life.

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And a regular NBA starter makes more in his first year than the 6th pick makes in his first year.

I'm not sure why people don't grasp that putting off free agency (and a likely $5m/year payday) another year just to come back and maybe make an extra $2-3m over 2-3 years doesn't make any financial sense.

free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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SECTAMU#1 said:

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GE said:

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SunrayAg said:

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He is projected as a first half of the first round pick, which means he is projected to be a multi millionaire.

Odds he leaves ... 100%.

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100% is false. Closer to 100% than 0% but not 100%.

---

If 100% is false, then the odds are approximately 99.999%

Robert will enter the draft. Count on it.

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Would you give me betting odds consistent with your position?

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Would you be willing to risk a minimum of $10,000 on that position?

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If I could do it in Vegas then probably. The dollars if I win are WAAAY too high to bet a random person on the Internet. What betting odds would 99.999% chsnce translate to? 10,000 to 1?

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Yeah, I somehow doubt you'd go and wager $10,000 on Robert Williams not entering the draft, even with a astronomical payout.

I get the point you were making that the odds he was saying were exaggerated, just think it's silly to ask if you can actually bet that.

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I absolutely would. Really think its somewhere between 60/40 and 80/20 that he goes.

Hop said:

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free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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knoxtom said:

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Gone. 100% gone. Will ride the NBA bench for a year then start working into a rotation.

You really think broke butt college life is better than NBA bench warmer? That is politics board levels of crazy there

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6th pick in the draft makes more in his first year than the 18th pick makes his first two years combined. Really depends on where he is projected to go leading up to the draft and what the likelihood is of making a roster vs being in the D league. College life is much more comfortable and better than D league life.

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And a regular NBA starter makes more in his first year than the 6th pick makes in his first year.

I'm not sure why people don't grasp that putting off free agency (and a likely $5m/year payday) another year just to come back and maybe make an extra $2-3m over 2-3 years doesn't make any financial sense.

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Yet...many prospects projected to go first round in February do return to school. So that should tell you it's not a 100% financial decision for every player and every circumstance.

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And I never said it was, I was replying with facts to those (including yourself) that continually try and work out some financial math where it makes a lot of sense for him to come back and try and raise his draft stock from #14 to #8 or #6... Not only do those posts ignore that there lies a decent chance his draft stock could go down, but they also lack a long-term financial outlook regarding free agency.

From a strictly financial standpoint, if Robert Williams believes he will be an NBA player, then forgoing a year of professional ball to potentially raise his 2-year income by $2-3m total is a poor, short-sighted move.

free_mhayden said:

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Hop said:

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free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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knoxtom said:

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Gone. 100% gone. Will ride the NBA bench for a year then start working into a rotation.

You really think broke butt college life is better than NBA bench warmer? That is politics board levels of crazy there

---

6th pick in the draft makes more in his first year than the 18th pick makes his first two years combined. Really depends on where he is projected to go leading up to the draft and what the likelihood is of making a roster vs being in the D league. College life is much more comfortable and better than D league life.

---

And a regular NBA starter makes more in his first year than the 6th pick makes in his first year.

I'm not sure why people don't grasp that putting off free agency (and a likely $5m/year payday) another year just to come back and maybe make an extra $2-3m over 2-3 years doesn't make any financial sense.

---

Yet...many prospects projected to go first round in February do return to school. So that should tell you it's not a 100% financial decision for every player and every circumstance.

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Not only do those posts ignore that there lies a decent chance his draft stock could go down, but they also lack a long-term financial outlook regarding free agency.

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Well, define "decent." I generally agree with you on the dollars, but barring injury I would not expect Williams to drop. The only question is whether he could raise his draft stock enough to justify waiting a year, and if he is already sitting at #10 or so, jumping a few spots won't make enough difference to warrant that.

One more year.

LawHall88 said:

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free_mhayden said:

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Hop said:

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free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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knoxtom said:

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Gone. 100% gone. Will ride the NBA bench for a year then start working into a rotation.

You really think broke butt college life is better than NBA bench warmer? That is politics board levels of crazy there

---

6th pick in the draft makes more in his first year than the 18th pick makes his first two years combined. Really depends on where he is projected to go leading up to the draft and what the likelihood is of making a roster vs being in the D league. College life is much more comfortable and better than D league life.

---

And a regular NBA starter makes more in his first year than the 6th pick makes in his first year.

I'm not sure why people don't grasp that putting off free agency (and a likely $5m/year payday) another year just to come back and maybe make an extra $2-3m over 2-3 years doesn't make any financial sense.

---

Yet...many prospects projected to go first round in February do return to school. So that should tell you it's not a 100% financial decision for every player and every circumstance.

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Not only do those posts ignore that there lies a decent chance his draft stock could go down, but they also lack a long-term financial outlook regarding free agency.

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Well, define "decent." I generally agree with you on the dollars, but barring injury I would not expect Williams to drop. The only question is whether he could raise his draft stock enough to justify waiting a year, and if he is already sitting at #10 or so, jumping a few spots won't make enough difference to warrant that.

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What limited data exists shows that a lottery pick returning to school for another year has a greater chance lowering his draft stock than raising it.

If you a Top 12ish type player, returning another year and not only proving again you are Top 12ish type player but even better is a very tough margin to beat.

Gil Renard said:

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Hop had it 60/40 he gone i think. Far from good as gone

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So just because he said it means it's infallible? For the record I really enjoy his posts and his knowledge concerning the basketball program but I'll stick with my prediction, thanks.

free_mhayden said:

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Hop said:

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free_mhayden said:

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GE said:

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knoxtom said:

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Gone. 100% gone. Will ride the NBA bench for a year then start working into a rotation.

You really think broke butt college life is better than NBA bench warmer? That is politics board levels of crazy there

---

6th pick in the draft makes more in his first year than the 18th pick makes his first two years combined. Really depends on where he is projected to go leading up to the draft and what the likelihood is of making a roster vs being in the D league. College life is much more comfortable and better than D league life.

---

And a regular NBA starter makes more in his first year than the 6th pick makes in his first year.

I'm not sure why people don't grasp that putting off free agency (and a likely $5m/year payday) another year just to come back and maybe make an extra $2-3m over 2-3 years doesn't make any financial sense.

---

Yet...many prospects projected to go first round in February do return to school. So that should tell you it's not a 100% financial decision for every player and every circumstance.

---

And I never said it was, I was replying with facts to those (including yourself) that continually try and work out some financial math where it makes a lot of sense for him to come back and try and raise his draft stock from #14 to #8 or #6... Not only do those posts ignore that there lies a decent chance his draft stock could go down, but they also lack a long-term financial outlook regarding free agency.

From a strictly financial standpoint, if Robert Williams believes he will be an NBA player, then forgoing a year of professional ball to potentially raise his 2-year income by $2-3m total is a poor, short-sighted move.

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Not to mention with the stupid money being thrown around right now, it wouldn't make sense to come back.

Even if he were projected to be drafted in the 2nd round, that may be a better position than a low first round pick. If he were drafted in the 2nd round, he and his agent could possibly work a 1 year deal (ala KJ Mcdaniels' first contract) and then bet on himself to get a longer, better contract.

All that is moot point, DX has him as the 12th pick as of right now. Would be a big surprise if he came back.

We wont even make NCAA tourney with him. He would be crazy to stay....you go everytime

Hop said:

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LeFraud said:

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Gil Renard said:

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Hop had it 60/40 he gone i think. Far from good as gone

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Lol was my first reaction, as I thought it was a joke





But then I realized it was serious

Lolz

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Aside from you acting like a child, I'll clarify. I put the odds at 65-35 and that was several weeks ago when his projection was #16-20. I have said all along if he projects higher that he will go pro...and will likely go pro either way.

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In 2016, the rookie scale provided a guarantee for 2 years, for the 11th pick it was $4,990,200 and for the 15th pick it was $4,064,280. If you are an 18 year old, with the chance to make over $4 million over the next two years, it appears that the chances are a lot higher as Hop stated.

Those thinking that the odds are 60/40 or 80/20, are not being very objective.

The more I've watched him play this season, he's gained more and more confidence. If he had stayed in the 15-20 range, I think Kennedy could convince him to come back and work on his jump shot. He's been creeping up to the 6-10 draft range now. (Projection from 4 days ago had him #9 to New Orleans, which would be pretty neat for him and his family). If you factor in his family's situation, it's not very likely he's coming back at this point.

Pumpkinhead said:

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numetalbizkitaggie said:

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The more I've watched him play this season, he's gained more and more confidence. If he had stayed in the 15-20 range, I think Kennedy could convince him to come back and work on his jump shot. He's been creeping up to the 6-10 draft range now. (Projection from 4 days ago had him #9 to New Orleans, which would be pretty neat for him and his family). If you factor in his family's situation, it's not very likely he's coming back at this point.

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As bad as the mood is on this board right now, I am mildly surprised that no one is blaming the staff for Robert Williams' draft rise. You would think they could have figured out ways to make him look more inept on the court, screwing up his confidence or strength and conditioning enough to avoid him continuing to creep up the mock draft boards, but they can't even get that right.

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I know your comment is tongue and cheek but the development of Robert Williams this season during the season should be a feather in the cap of this staff. I can't believe how far he has come during this season.

I know we don't like to reward any credit to this staff but Robert Williams development has made this season at least somewhat fun to follow despite the horribly inconsistent play.

First of all, I think he's gone.

But what is his "family situation" thy makes it more likely he goes?

cwood15 said:

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But what is his "family situation" thy makes it more likely he goes?

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Although I'm having difficulty finding the story now, I read an article or post, (might have been from Hop, but I'm not sure), detailing his high school time and that he grew up in a fairly poor household. If I'm mistaken, I apologize. It's worth noting that Vivian, LA is a fairly poor town with an average household median income of $25,113.

How has Robert Williams developed outside of BK realizing he needs to play him more? They were talking about him as a sleeper lotto pick as soon as the UCLA game. He's about the same player.

GE said:

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ClassOf17 said:

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Why come back to this for another year when you can make millions?

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College life is much more enjoyable than NBA D-league life, which is where he will be for a season of two if he leaves after this year.

If A&M is as good next year as we are projected to be, he will have even more recognition nationally on a great team and work his way higher in the draft through that.

There is pretty big separation in salary even within the first half if the first round. This is a deep dract class and next year's may not be as deep. Could work his way up the board and potentially start out on an actual roster instead of D-leaguem.

Parents may want him to stay another year in college to mature.

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So...wait till next year?

One huge change I've noticed is that he knows where he needs to be on the floor more now. At the UCLA game you're mentioning, he was fairly stagnant on the floor, sometimes unsure whether to dribble and drive, pass, or jack up a three. He's more decisive, is the way to phrase it, I guess.

I said it on the game thread from Saturday... He's going this year, and he's going to go higher than 14.