found myself actually interested in a debate over on BA, curious as to the opinions here... the thread is titled "the craft beer boom has gone flat" so the content is pretty self explanatory. all questionable data being thrown around aside, im not sure we've reached that point yet (though it is inevitable).
its a bit misleading to point to the number of closures imo. the "texas big beer"s of the world didn't survive the increasing competition, but even a totally incompetent operation like that had a very real chance. correct me if im wrong but my perception is they closed due to tripping over their own dick moreso than the market not being able to withstand another brewery. I feel like the market wants to embrace new breweries still, but maybe now more than ever the complete clown show operations (not to be confused with clown shoes) will be weeded out. between increasing options and awareness/knowledge of the avg craft drinker, you gotta bring something to the table. so i suppose that's one thing that has changed, at least here in tx, brewers aren't getting the same blind loyalty they once received just for being local.
that being said, i tend to agree with those arguing the market is changing rather than going flat, and that established craft drinkers are shifting to more local craft options than ever before, replacing their once out of state craft purchases. a big reason for that is all the newfound quality options available in markets like houston- for the first time ever, when i want an excellent ipa, I have legitimate local options like yellow rose or one of the brash offerings- and while they might not be rated quite up there with pliny or heady and the like, we finally have something close enough to that level of quality that factored with freshness and cost, is a much more desirable purchase for every day drinking. same story for many popular styles across the board. I still buy some national brands like sierra Nevada regularly, but many others just arent good buys anymore next to what i can buy locally. in my case its stuff like firestone, odell, oskar blues, and even stone to a lesser extent (cant totally quit stone) that im shifting away from. and it's not blind loyalty to local spots, in most cases these brewers are earning it with the local drinkers.
you've also got the established brewers like St Arnold's stepping their game up amongst competition- the bishops barrel series has honestly turned into something great imo, id love to see some of the recent bb's in a blind tasting against highly rated national brews of similar style. not saying they'd take them all down, but i think there would be some surprises, especially considering the rate at which bb are released. i do wish st a would take some of the better ones and perfect them into something they could release annually at least. I thought 14, 18, and 10 specifically were pretty special with several others not far behind. anyway, the point is you can sustain beer snobbery locally like never before.
its an interesting topic, and ive got nothing better to concern myself with at nearly 3am as i alternate between growlers of knutsens farm (possibly the most refreshing beer ever) and abide. feel free to offer your opinion