62strat said:
Scriffer said:
I don't think we've hit the saturation point yet, but the market definitely is shifting. We're getting to a point where it's not good enough simply to be a small local brewer. Consumers are really starting to pick and choose what they drink, and that's probably a result of 1) more options, both locally-grown and new availability from OOS breweries, and 2) just a more educated consumer base as the craft beer scene matures. Look at what's happened to Rahr in the last 5 years. I can think of maybe one of their beers I'd actually drink at this point.
I tend to disagree wth a lot of this.
First, there is a long line of people behind you that will follow your progression of having their first craft beer, then second, then they find Rahr and drink that for a while before moving on. It's a cycle. You've gone through it, but 90% of Texans haven't.. yet.
Along with that, I think a small local brewer sill has his place and can be successful. My little town has 3 of them. So many suburb towns in Denver have multiple of them. Again, probably a large % of these towns have barely scratched the craft surface if at all. The brewers still have a large market to capture. In downtown Denver or Austin, maybe it's a different story. Your percentage of beer geeks is way higher, so a lineup of a boring lager, brown, porter, stout and amber ale won't cut it.
All in all, a huge percentage of beer drinkers haven't even got into craft yet. And as new generations become of age, they are more likely to get into craft first, because it's trendy. So there is still so much untapped market, and it never goes away. Every year a few million people become of age.
This 100%.
As part of my sales job with Karbach, I sample beer on Friday and twice Saturday, plus pop-up demos here and there in my territory on the west side-- so roughly 13-18 times a month easily, 3 hours per session. I do it in the suburbs, I do it in Montrose/Heights/West U, and out in Katy/Spring/Conroe/Pasadena/you name it. I'm generally set up in the beer aisle and am very observant of what people buy when not actively talking to someone.
I'd say around 85% of the time, people are there for Domestics/Mexican Imports/Low-Carb Lagers/Blue Moon-Shock Top-Leinenkugel's, and if you throw Shiner into the mix, you probably capture at least 90% if not more.
If I'm in Montrose, the Heights, Garden Oaks, certain HEB's in Spring/Katy/Sugar Land/Woodlands, this shifts
slightly more in favor of Shiner/Karbach/Saint Arnold and national craft brands. But let's call it 75-80% macro even in the craftiest stores.
Like Strat said, people are starting to delve deeper into craft options, but it's absolutely a process that takes time and most have not gotten past their initial favorite gateway beers. These are the ones that take up the most shelf space too, fully justified by years of steady sales at good margins-- Shiner/Saint Arnold/Karbach/Real Ale. Retailers like HEB and Specs do a good job of featuring new craft beer, but they can only do so much to change tastes. People are
very wary of buying a new six pack of something without trying it first. Also, the vast majority of people are NOT shopping in a Bunker Hill HEB, downtown Spec's, or Heights Kroger; most people get about 12-16 feet of "craft" options in the cold box. And you would be shocked how much craft beer is woefully out of date, even in the biggest and best craft sections.
I know people like to **** on the ABI High End video proclaiming wine and spirits to be the biggest enemy of craft beer, but go ask anyone in distribution about bar business in Houston, and they'll all tell you that beer is down thanks to craft cocktails and wine in all the biggest on-premise neighborhoods. Do a time-lapse of the last year or two of grocery store beer aisle resets and you'll see craft beer's area shrinking (stale national brands losing the most, thankfully) and the sparkling seltzer, hard root beer, hard cider, hard whatever section growing more than anything else. The wine and spirits industry is much older and much more highly developed, and is made of only a handful of international conglomerates with a buttload more money than the craft beer industry, whom they will out-spend on advertising for as long as there are alcoholic beverages.
As much as the informed beer drinker wants everyone else to be on the same page, it's still an extremely gradual process. The craft beer drinker goes out and buys one, maybe two 6pks of beer, or does a build-your-own so as not to risk too much on a whole $9-10 6er. The macro drinker goes and buys ONE OR TWO 18 PACKS that same trip to the store. And guess what, a lot of the craft drinkers ALSO buy an 18er of something macro because they have
that family member or
that friend to consider too.
As the older generations die off, craft will start taking a bigger piece of the pie. Unfortunately, we are still a long way off from it coming close to the majority. There is always going to be a market for economical fizz, and spirits companies will always spend big bucks on product development and advertising to churn out something in line with current tastes for a reasonable price.
tl;dr: It sucks, but less people than you think are drinking craft beer, and most of those are still drinking the biggest national/local brands. More than you'd prefer are drinking the gimmicky hard sodas or other alternatives.