Ag_in_Moscow said:
I took a look at Sam's stats vs. the field for the Houston tournament, wanting to see where he might need to improve. I'll admit up front, strokes gained for a single tournament tell more about where a golfer succeeded and failed at that moment in time, but don't necessarily indicate permanently weak areas. Based on my own experience, you need at least 10 rounds before the ordinary round-to-round volatility disappears in the numbers and you can make some serious judgements. That being said...
Category / Strokes gained / Rank / comments
Total / -2.95 / T72
Driving / +0.195 / 49 / This is pretty damn good, considering he was dead last in driving distance (#83 out of those making the cut), and SG values distance over accuracy. He came in tied for #6 in accuracy, hitting 67% of his fairways. If he could find 10-15 more yards, it would help him a lot, and on other courses accuracy may not help him as much to offset the lack of distance.
Putting / +1.1 / 37 / His strongest suit in this tournament. The flat stick can make up for a lot of woes tee-to-green, but can it show up every week?
Around the green / +0.88 / 39 / Second-strongest category, and we all knew Sam scrambles well. Unfortunately, the next category shows why he has to...
Approach to green / -5.1 / 82 / By far his worst category. Finished pretty much dead last. I haven't gone through the tournament (and I can't watch it from where I am), so I don't know if this was a consistent problem, or due to 2 or 3 bad decisions and/or bad luck (two water balls in the course of 4 days can tack on 4 of those 5 strokes).
This is his only PGA Tour tournament so far this year, and Korn Ferry doesn't have Shot Link data, so it makes no sense to analyze his season numbers. However, Sam played a number of tournaments last year on the strength of his US Am. championship, so later I may go back and look at that broader set of data, or perhaps his performance in the majors where he made the cut.
Ever since Sam had his run at Augusta last year I've tracked him pretty dang closely. I'll usually have his shot tracker up for tourneys and watch him when he comes up. I was enamored by his story and am rooting for him to get to the big stage.
Here are my broad take aways without getting into the great data you shared.
Driving Accuracy: ELITE... He is a fairway finder and when he does miss it's not bad. Usually first cut. I've rarely seen him send one right into the trees or water. If ever.
Driving Distance: POOR... Usually 15-30 yards behind his group. Could use some speed/weight training in off-season.
Long Irons/woods: GOOD... For lacking distance he hits his long irons well and puts himself in good spots
Wedges: OKAY... Nothing crazy. Will occasionally stick it right next to hole but lands too far away on wedges too often for tour level.
Short game: GOOD... Pretty good at getting up and down. We all know this is a strength of his.
Puttin: POOR..OR...GOOD.. Wildly inconsistent. Will 3 putt a 20 footer and then next hole make a long bomb. He tends to struggle tourney to tourney with the 8-15 footers for birdie that tour pros make at a high level. But when he is hot he can drain them at will. Just isn't the norm for him.
Numbers may say otherwise but that's my 7 handicap view of his play.
I think he will win on tour. Will need to add more distance like Aberg to flirt with a major again.
