Sips on Orangebloods are convinced they are joining the SEC with OU

59,873 Views | 382 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by LOYAL AG
Bonfire1996
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3:42p, 7/24/15
AG
Oklahoma fans are thinking that because the SEC was interested in them before, that they will definitively be interested in them again. Before we even get into the logic of that line of thinking, can we discuss the merits of that original belief?

Was the SEC interested in Oklahoma only? Or were they interested in Oklahoma as a dance partner with A&M. Remember, A&M was never going to be the 13th member of the SEC with the SEC planning to operate a season with 13 teams. That type of talk was just for show. There was always going to be a 14th team. The SEC lucked out when OU said "No" and Mizzou jumped into consideration. The SEC is making millions more dollars annually because they have Mizzou and not OU.

But back to the original conundrum I posed. OU thinks that because they were asked 5 years ago, that they will be asked again. Let me ask another relevant question to that time frame. Does the same OU fan think that if ESPN offers the sips $15 Million gross revenue annually for their tier 3 licensing rights in 2015, does that OU fan think that is a good deal now? The answer is clearly not, it seemed like a great deal back them, but the reality of today has changed. But they will suspend their own reality and think that the same factors are at play in their situation, today.

OU was offered a spot in 2010 before we were getting $0.40 per subscriber to the SEC Network in out of network States. In order for OU to make sense, and make cents literally, in 2015, they have to be able to provide the conference, not overall revenue but the conference, an additional $32 Million in overall revenue as a school and State. And even that is a flimsy premise as we should really be looking at the present value of our future financial distributions as a conference. Unless OU can offer the conference an additional $50 Million in annual revenues, the SEC would logically pass as taking them at a lesser number would be costing the member schools money.

Does anyone honestly believe that Oklahoma as a State and a school can offer the SEC $50 Million in annual revenue? Oklahoma has 621,000 cable television households. Virginia and North Carolina have 2 Million each.
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goodAg80
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:47p, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
From EKU's link:

quote:
"There was a time when A&M thought they were going to the SEC and they very much wanted us to go with them," Boren said. "Oklahoma, in the whole thing, we were positioned in a way where virtually we could not have lost."
Really? That's rich.
He showed us, that wily *******.

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The Collective
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4:37p, 7/24/15
AG
Thus sayeth Bonfire.
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ABATTBQ11
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In reply to EKUAg • 5:04p, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
Ah yes, memories...


http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5319856
quote:
Boren said the Pac-10 offer was for five Big 12 schools -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech -- to join as a group. Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott visited the schools earlier this month to extend the invitations.

"The invitation was really to the group," Boren said. "It had to be, because you couldn't have our teams all flying to the Pacific coast every week to play games. There had to be an eastern division of schools."
Boren said the SEC extended offers only to Oklahoma and Texas A&M, both of which opted to stay in a slimmed-down Big 12 after Colorado left for the Pac-10 and Nebraska left for the Big Ten. Because the SEC offer didn't include two of the Sooners' key rivals, Oklahoma State and Texas, Boren said he didn't consider it a good option.
2 things that stand out here: The PAC will not take tu on its own, and the SEC Picked us over them.

The Pac really would need an eastern division if it took tu due to the time difference. The tv timing between markets and travel costs would make it fairly prohibitive to have one team with a two hour time difference from most of the rest of the conference.

Only we and Oklahoma were offered SEC invites. This was in 2010, in tu's heyday. They were never worth more than at the start of the 2009-2010 NCG. Even after, the 2010 season looked bright. Even then, the SEC preferred to have us instead of them. The sips who think they can just call up the SEC commissioner and get a spot in the conference are deluding themselves. They just need to face it: We got picked over them.
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aggiehawg
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5:09p, 7/24/15
AG
From landthieves:

quote:

    Keep in mind if what I heard is correct OU getting out before 2018 is not gonna happen. So that means we would most likely hear something official after this season or next summer. This info coming from a reliable inner OU circle leads me to believe There will be a leak of information sometime soon. What is curious to me is the fact that OU is not going to back any expansion of the BIg 12. My guess is they have the SEC deal we knew about weeks ago ironed out. And Boren has some big time money breathing down his neck to make something happen cuz these guys won't settle for adding Cincy and Memphis....
Hhmm. sounds like this "insider" doesn't know Boren is on the expansion committee.
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blacksmith21
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5:48p, 7/24/15
AG
@Bonfire 1996 -

How would the ROI look if we added a NC and Virginia team? If they only bring 4 million subscribers, would they bring in enough revenue to prevent dilution of per team payout?
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aggiehawg
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5:49p, 7/24/15
AG
Good Lord! Now landthieves has Iowa State going to the SEC:

quote:
Don't be sad Buttercup...I think you could end up on the SEC with OU.
why? Let's go through the list of candidates:
1) It works better to have 2 from the West to move Missouri west
2) UT is UT.....and for a ton of reasons I think they will be semi-independent in a new SWC.
3) KU is heading to the B1G presumably (not sure this is a given, as I think part of OU's interest in the SEC was a lack of urgency/interest from the B1G)
4) OU would like OSU in the SEC, while I think the SEC isn't totally opposed to that, it might not be the SEC's first wish
5) Deloss Dodds, former UT AD, mentioned in an email that they had "a Tech problem" when it came to switching conferences. Tech may have a UT problem.
6) TCU and Baylor are small private schools and not the smart kind like Northwestern, or Vanderbilt or Tulane.
7) SEC passed on West Virginia once. They are a small weird school in a small weird state. And it's east


  • That brings us to Iowa St. New state/TV market. Not too far up the road from Columbus. You're AAU so you have the academic chops that KSU or OSU don't have.
These people are definitely on meth.
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GAC06
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5:58p, 7/24/15
AG
Adding Oklahoma State may not be the SEC's first wish?

Cutting my own crank off with rusty garden shears may not be my first wish either.
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aggiehawg
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6:01p, 7/24/15
AG
Why is the SEC suddenly the lifeboat that everybody on board of the sinking Big XII thinks is waiting for them??
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permabull
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In reply to blacksmith21 • 6:01p, 7/24/15
AG
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permabull
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In reply to aggiehawg • 6:04p, 7/24/15
AG
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aggiehawg
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6:14p, 7/24/15
AG
But wait there's more. How's this for tortured logic:

quote:
First, would the SEC lose money? It's not clear that the SEC would actually lose money even if their networks couldn't cover the OU home games. After all, any funds the SEC would receive from showing the OU home games would be passed onto OU less a percentage going to the conference. That would reduce any losses to the SEC from not showing the OU home games to that percentage. Furthermore, any OU home game SEC match-ups could be replaced on the TV schedule with any SEC/SEC match-up so it's not clear that the SEC would lose any funds. It's conceivable that the SEC would not lose any money, they could lock-up OU, and enhance their schedule with OU's away games. Once the GOR expires, OU would be treated as any other SEC team from a broadcast standpoint.

The networks.

Convincing the networks providing coverage for SEC games might be an issue. While it is true that they would not have access to OU home games, they would have access to all OU away SEC games. So, in my hypothetical OU could be playing Auburn, Georgia, Florida, and Tennessee at their home fields. Would this be sufficiently attractive for the networks to go along with this? This might satisfy the networks.

OU would completely fulfill it's obligation to allow the networks covering the Big XII to show OU home games through the end of the GOR. It's not likely that any other member of the Big XII would have grounds to sue either.


  • I realize that the Big XII does not have a network. I've used the term "Big XII network" to refer to whatever network has the right to a specific game.
Soo, if the SEC isn't "losing money" , that means they aren't paying Oklahoma diddly squat until the Big XII GOR expires. OU is on-board with that?? Don't think so. The main reason Boren spoke out is because he's losing donor support and can't get his stadium renovation done.
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GrapevineAg
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In reply to blacksmith21 • 6:25p, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
@Bonfire 1996 -

How would the ROI look if we added a NC and Virginia team? If they only bring 4 million subscribers, would they bring in enough revenue to prevent dilution of per team payout?

Using Bonfire 1996's numbers... 4 million cable subscribers (NC + VA) at $0.40 per subscriber per month = $1.6 million/mo, or $19.2 million/yr. Each team would only be bringing in $9.6 million/yr - that would dilute the pool.
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Señor Chang
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In reply to GrapevineAg • 6:30p, 7/24/15
AG
The 0.40 per month is the out of state rate. The in-state rate is something like 1.25 per month.
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GrapevineAg
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6:32p, 7/24/15
AG
Reading fail on my part. So Using $1.25 instead of $0.40, that would be $60 million (instead of $19.2) total, or $30 million each. That's close, but maybe still not enough? And that assumes that no $ is coming in from out-of-state subscriptions currently. If we assume everybody in VA and NC already gets the SECN, then it's $40.8 million ($20.4 million each) additional.
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Señor Chang
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In reply to GrapevineAg • 6:36p, 7/24/15
AG
Also, that's only SECN money. I think adding a VA and NC school would trigger a look in on our Tier 1 and 2 tv contracts. I'm no expert in this though, I'm sure Bonfire or someone else could explain it.
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GrapevineAg
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6:37p, 7/24/15
AG
Yeah, I'm no expert either... just trying to do some rough math.
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aggiehawg
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6:49p, 7/24/15
AG
I'm not seeing how the Big XII doesn't expand or implode within 5 years. And getting a play-off spot a few times during that time span won't cure what ails them. Their business model sucks and will continue to suck. And there are not enough life boats in the other conferences for everybody.

The Titanic lives again...with the same ending.
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The Notorious A.G.G.I.E.
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:30p, 7/24/15
AG
I agree.

The next BDF media deal isn't for another decade. The BIG and SEC renegotiation of media rights is in the next couple of years. Look for sip and sooner fans to go ballistic when there's a $10 million difference each year. It's a matter of time before the money lost in an old media deal will outweigh the punitive measures of the GOR.
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Hood
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In reply to Señor Chang • 8:20p, 7/24/15
AG
Yep. The SEC would be adding almost 2 dozen more games to broadcast. Good games to boot.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to aggiehawg • 9:24p, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
Good Lord! Now landthieves has Iowa State going to the SEC:

quote:
Don't be sad Buttercup...I think you could end up on the SEC with OU.
why? Let's go through the list of candidates:
1) It works better to have 2 from the West to move Missouri west
2) UT is UT.....and for a ton of reasons I think they will be semi-independent in a new SWC.
3) KU is heading to the B1G presumably (not sure this is a given, as I think part of OU's interest in the SEC was a lack of urgency/interest from the B1G)
4) OU would like OSU in the SEC, while I think the SEC isn't totally opposed to that, it might not be the SEC's first wish
5) Deloss Dodds, former UT AD, mentioned in an email that they had "a Tech problem" when it came to switching conferences. Tech may have a UT problem.
6) TCU and Baylor are small private schools and not the smart kind like Northwestern, or Vanderbilt or Tulane.
7) SEC passed on West Virginia once. They are a small weird school in a small weird state. And it's east


  • That brings us to Iowa St. New state/TV market. Not too far up the road from Columbus. You're AAU so you have the academic chops that KSU or OSU don't have.
These people are definitely on meth.


I see Jorts has moved on from OB and is trolling land thieves.com now.
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aggiehawg
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9:58p, 7/24/15
AG
LOL. Landthieves again. They sure do think more of themselves than anybody else.


quote:

    I do think the B1G and OU talk. I don't think they are available to each other in the capacity each other prefers at the moment. Meanwhile the SEC senses it is a good time to strike while the iron is hot and are striking now. This is the last chance for OU to be up for grabs. It's now or never for the SEC.
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mulch
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10:10p, 7/24/15
AG
We choose never
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Jaxson11
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10:28p, 7/24/15
AG
OU can't stand alone. They need to tag along with tu.
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GAC06
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10:43p, 7/24/15
AG
Now or never. OU isn't going to the Big10. OU already tried to go to the PAC. OU isn't going to the ACC. OU is locked into a grand of rights for another decade. No one else wants them and they are anchored to a corpse. Now or never, SEC! That's how you bargain.
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StephenvilleAg77
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In reply to GAC06 • 10:46p, 7/24/15
quote:
Adding Oklahoma State may not be the SEC's first wish?
Yep. It would be hilarious to see a photo of the 130-lb tatted-up meth-tweakin' mullet-adorned trailer-dwelling okie einstein who posted that one. Joe Dirt, only 10x dumber.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Jaxson11 • 10:47p, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
OU can't stand alone. They need to tag along with tu.
OU doesn't bring any TV sets. Maryland and Rutgers aren't exactly athletics juggernauts but they bring the DCand Jersey/NY markets. That's why B1G grabbed them. If you can't supply enough TV sets to pay your own way and increase the size of the existing pie you ain't worth spit. There isn't anyone in the BDF that meets the criteria and as a result they are absolutely worthless in any realignment with the SEC. The real plums are in the ACC. The Virginia/DC area and the NC area are the real prizes for the SEC or the B1G whereas Texas (the state) is the prize for the Pac12.
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ccatag
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11:04p, 7/24/15
AG
Expansion is their only option. Boren knows this and that's why he is pushing it now. A Conference Network is important too, but there is that little tv channel to the south.
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DifferenceMaker Ag
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In reply to ccatag • 11:18p, 7/24/15
quote:
quote:
quote:

The thing about our "$#@!ty" ten team conference is that all but ISU have had very high level success in football at some point in the last decade, and with ISU, they are at least competitive most years and their fans show up. Only KU is looking like a long term football dog despite their Orange Bowl run a few years ago, but they can get away with it because of their basketball blueblood status. Adding two mid-majors will dilute that competitiveness. SEC can boast all they want, but they have a lot of crappy football every year in their conference. The Big XII doesn't have much disparity in talent from top to bottom. What the Big XII needs is someone to break through and win an MNC, even if its not OU or Texas. The SEC will always get preference regardless of how unfair it is, but they still have to take the field and one of us needs to win it all to shut them up, even if just temporarily.


They can't be serious right now.

There it is ... it's back. The bdf is a Power Bottom league.
So they just need a team to go 14-0.


Ya think????
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WestAustinAg
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11:19p, 7/24/15
AG
Why do any of you assume OU was actually offered an SEC invitation? Likely they had a conversation with the SEC to be a possible entry partner but Missouri and others in the east were also considered. No, there is no reason to believe thay things got that serious. Certainly Boren exaggerated sec interest in 2020 just as he exaggerated the PAC 12 interest in OU sans tu in 2011/2012.
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Madman
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In reply to WestAustinAg • 11:21p, 7/24/15
AG
Boren claims that OU had an offer for whatever that is worth.
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Mathguy64
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11:25p, 7/24/15
AG
If MethU had an offer and they didn't take it Boren should be put in jail for the rest of his natural life. But of course he didn't have an offer as that would have been TI and Slive has said the SEC wasn't making offers. Schools had to initiate the contact and ask.
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MSU/SECALUM
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11:30p, 7/24/15
When the next round of realignment starts would it not be possible that the SEC & ACC talk and work together to keep the B1G & PAC from having options? For instance let the SEC take NC State & VT to free up spots for Texas(LHN becomes the ACCN), TTU, OU, OSU, KSU and WVU? Then ISU & KU go B1G because of not having any other choices? That pretty much locks out the PAC & keeps the B1G out of the South. Baylor & TCU stay in the Big 12 and then they back fill with Cincinnati, Memphis, ECU, USF, UCF, Tulane, Houston, SMU. CSU, Boise State & BYU and ESPN & Fox and the P4 throws them a bone for consideration in the CFB Playoff? That would give 8 Big 12 members the votes they need to dissolve the conference.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to WestAustinAg • 11:36p, 7/24/15
AG
quote:
Why do any of you assume OU was actually offered an SEC invitation? Likely they had a conversation with the SEC to be a possible entry partner but Missouri and others in the east were also considered. No, there is no reason to believe thay things got that serious. Certainly Boren exaggerated sec interest in 2020 just as he exaggerated the PAC 12 interest in OU sans tu in 2011/2012.
OU was offered with A&M in 2010. They rejected Slive because they were going to the PAC with OSU and the rest of the gang.

The next year, after A&M was going to the SEC, OU wanted to go the PAC and take OSU and tu with them. According to Deloss Dodds, he and Powers scuttled that move by gaining an offer to the ACC like Notre Dame was discussing and Scott backed off.

LINK

19:45 mark
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DifferenceMaker Ag
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In reply to ABATTBQ11 • 11:59p, 7/24/15
quote:
quote:
Ah yes, memories...


http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5319856
quote:
Boren said the Pac-10 offer was for five Big 12 schools -- Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech -- to join as a group. Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott visited the schools earlier this month to extend the invitations.

"The invitation was really to the group," Boren said. "It had to be, because you couldn't have our teams all flying to the Pacific coast every week to play games. There had to be an eastern division of schools."
Boren said the SEC extended offers only to Oklahoma and Texas A&M, both of which opted to stay in a slimmed-down Big 12 after Colorado left for the Pac-10 and Nebraska left for the Big Ten. Because the SEC offer didn't include two of the Sooners' key rivals, Oklahoma State and Texas, Boren said he didn't consider it a good option.
2 things that stand out here: The PAC will not take tu on its own, and the SEC Picked us over them.

The Pac really would need an eastern division if it took tu due to the time difference. The tv timing between markets and travel costs would make it fairly prohibitive to have one team with a two hour time difference from most of the rest of the conference.

Only we and Oklahoma were offered SEC invites. This was in 2010, in tu's heyday. They were never worth more than at the start of the 2009-2010 NCG. Even after, the 2010 season looked bright. Even then, the SEC preferred to have us instead of them. The sips who think they can just call up the SEC commissioner and get a spot in the conference are deluding themselves. They just need to face it: We got picked over them.
Didn't Loftin reach out to Slive first? It's an important distinction that is often overlooked. Either way, the delusion is frightening.
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