We purchased in Texas around Oct of 2022, at the peak due to a relocation. I was able to obtain a 7/1 ARM on a Jumbo loan with a 4.125% rate. I have until 2029 so not panicking yet, but when do I think about locking in a 30 year fixed in the future?

I would think rates should trend down during 2025 but not sure we will ever get back to the low 4's.

Thoughts on timing to limit risk exposure?

Don't really see any reason to get in a huge hurry. My gut says sub 5% in the next 12-18 months. And id take that when it happens.

Maybe your current lender would be open to a low cost refi as a hedge?

You got a 4 to 5 year window to sit where you are at now. Enjoy the 4% loan. 30's are mid 6's right now.

A LOT can happen in 5 years. New job, new kids, new wife (hopefully kidding) so no way to know even if you need to refinance. And remember ARMS can also go down based on market. I'd find what market index you are tide to and follow that to see the trends. LIBOR is a common one. See what it was when you took the note.

Stand pat. Glad you got the ARM when you did. Good rate.