Started falling right as his speech was beginning...

Exactly.

Sure, if you zoom in far enough on a chart, lots of moves seem dramatic. I don't think this is abnormal treasury yield volatility on a day where the Fed chair is reporting data.

Like I said, this is a net "good" trend for mortgage rates (at the expense of overall economic weakness), but I don't think many people are looking at a 5 day treasury trend when deciding on a 15-30 year mortgage. Or at least, I don't think they should be.

Payroll numbers came in worse than expected. The market is now pricing in roughly 125 bps of target rate cuts by December (I don't see how this is possible), and the 10 year treasury yield is currently down about 15 bps this morning (dropped ~20 bps immediately after payroll numbers were released). Incredible.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y

The Austin info is interesting. The property we're buying had been on the market for 200 days when we made our offer. We ended up getting it for about 16% below the original asking and it appraised for 8% more than we're paying.

Is it reasonable to assume there will be some softening that brings the value down in the fairly near term?

Where did you end up buying? Each neighborhood is going to be different. I helped an Ag out with his Circle C home this past May and we got $50k over asking. I also had another listing in Western Oaks go for $30k over asking in April. A couple I helped out in Belterra though were able to buy their home for 97% of asking price.

16% off asking is definitely a win. That's the reason I was asking where did you end up buying. These next couple of months will definitely say something about the Austin area.

Red Pear Felipe said:

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Where did you end up buying? Each neighborhood is going to be different. I helped an Ag out with his Circle C home this past May and we got $50k over asking. I also had another listing in Western Oaks go for $30k over asking in April. A couple I helped out in Belterra though were able to buy their home for 97% of asking price.

16% off asking is definitely a win. That's the reason I was asking where did you end up buying. These next couple of months will definitely say something about the Austin area.

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Blackland 78722

Leaving the tine?

Sea Speed said:

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Leaving the tine?

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Nope. Buying a condo in Austin because we're going to be spending more time there. It's a better investment than hotels lighting money on fire.

Ryan the Temp said:

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Sea Speed said:

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Leaving the tine?

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Nope. Buying a condo in Austin because we're going to be spending more time there. It's a better investment than hotels lighting money on fire.

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Flip to the sips confirmed

Heineken-Ashi said:

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Ryan the Temp said:

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Sea Speed said:

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Leaving the tine?

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Nope. Buying a condo in Austin because we're going to be spending more time there. It's a better investment than hotels lighting money on fire.

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Flip to the sips confirmed

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Well, I am, in fact, considering a Ph.D. program there.

Diggity said:

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Sea Speed said:

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Relevant Twitter thread

Sales down

Prices turning down

Inventory rising FAST

This is how price corrections begin https://t.co/pg08yhiGsY

— Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) July 20, 2024

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interesting data but Amy Nixon is a doom and gloomer. It's her engagement schtick.

Is inventory growing in the Metroplex? Sure...but it needed to.

Jumping from 2.5 to 3.8 months of inventory (while prices contract slightly) does not scream correction to me.

The "balanced" market inventory has always been quoted at six months. I would argue that's a bit high, but four months is not a glut by any means.

This article talks a bit more about the recent market trends. It's behind a paywall on my desktop, but I could read it fine on my phone for some reason

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/real-estate/2024/06/17/north-texas-housing-inventory-hits-12-year-high-what-happens-next/

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Revisiting this because I have now been on the lookout for this lady and youre absolutely correct, 100% doomer, but it is pretty crazy some of the stuff she posts about Dallas area.