HOUSTON

From HAR:

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November marked the first time in 19 months that single-family homes sales were in positive territory with sales rising 4.9 percent year-over-year. When compared to pre-pandemic November 2019, sales were down 3.2 percent and when stacked up against the sales volume in November 2018, five years ago, sales were statistically flat.

In addition to the increase in single-family sales volume, total property sales rose 3.7 percent and total dollar volume climbed 7.5 percent from $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion. Single-family pending sales rose 11.9 percent. Active listings, or the total number of available properties, were 13.5 percent ahead of the 2022 level.

Months of inventory expanded from a 2.8-months supply last November to 3.5 months, matching its October 2023 level. It is the greatest supply of homes since November 2019. Housing inventory nationally is at a 3.6-months supply, according to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). A 4.0- to 6.0-month supply is generally considered a "balanced market" in which neither buyer nor seller has an advantage.

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THE FACTS

• Months inventory fell month over month from 3.6 months to 3.5 months.
• As mentioned above, total sales increased for the first time in 19 months.
• Average pricing is up 1.0% YOY and median pricing is down 1.2% YOY.
• The 10 year US treasury continued its 2 month decline to about 4.166% today.
• CPI numbers released yesterday came in at: 3.1% YOY and basically flat (up 0.1%) from October.

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https://www.har.com/content/department/newsroom?pid=2017

MY TAKE

• Months inventory fell month over month from 3.6 months to 3.5 months. This is not a good sign for buyers, or the health of the market, in my opinion. November normally sees increasing inventory leading into December, not the other way around.
• Falling inventory, coupled with falling inflation (fueled by lower gas prices) and falling interest rates could make for a hot spring and summer 2024. "Here we go again" is the short version of my take today.
• The last two weeks or so have been busy for me, with a new listing under contract, signing a few leases, and several new listings. I've also had several future buyers reach out in the last two weeks, which I haven't had in a while.
• All in all, it feels like the market feels like we may have hit "bottom". If that's right, buckle up.

Bryan / College Station Area Statistics:

• Both Bryan & College Station saw their months of inventory dip, Bryan went from 3.9 months to 3.6 & College Station went from 2.8 months to 2.5 months.
• Bryan saw the median home price MoM increase from $262.5K to $275.7K. Probably attributable to a few larger properties ended up closing.
• Median Home Prices for the B/CS area have come down from September 2023's $318K to November's $300K even. That is a 6% decrease.

My Take and Transactions:

• It was a quiet month overall, only had 1 closing. But we were able to secure our client a large seller credit over $7,000 that was used in tandem with our rebate to buy their rate down to 5.99%. The home purchase was just over $300K, so it was some serious savings that our client benefited from with nothing out of their pocket!
• I am getting a lot more email blasts from home builders throughout the Brazos that is offering anywhere from 4-6% additional pricing reductions/concessions to agents if they can bring buyers to their new construction homes...
• Speaking of new construction - one of my wife's and I's favorite things to do is go tour new builds throughout the area. This has given me exposure to so many of the new communities throughout the area and provided some really eye-popping differences between all the builders and where they choose to spend the money on these new homes.

Bryan/College Station MSA:




Bryan:



College Station:

NORTH TEXAS

"High mortgage rates continue to decrease demand for homebuyers, leading to Texas' total home sales falling 3.7 percent to 26,164 sales in October. The "Big Four" metros were split with Austin and Dallas experiencing gains while Houston and San Antonio fell significantly. Austin had the highest monthly elevation with a 2.4 percent growth rate while San Antonio plummeted by 6.1 percent. The gap between Dallas and Houston grew as they moved in opposite directions. High mortgage rates continue to increase the entry barrier for buyers, leaving only the most committed buyers in the market."

However, as Jamie pointed out we just saw a meaningful decline in the 10-Year. If that trend continues we should see continued decline in mortgage rates which will likely spin up demand.




Otherwise things were pretty much status quo in November and on par to prior months. Median Price is flat with Sales Volume declining, however, Day on Market and Active Listings continuing to climb due to previously stated weak demand.

Dallas County & Rockwall County bucking the trend and posting meaningful price increases for the month.

If rates fall and demand bounces back, inventory is still low enough were it might get frothy quickly once again. However, I think we need sub 5 rates for that to happen metro wide, which would peg the 10-Year in the 3s.















Other North Texas counties available upon request

Home sales in Austin remain strong despite continued higher rates

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"Buyers in Central Texas now have a more abundant selection of homes to peruse than in previous years," Ashley Jackson, 2023 ABoR president, said. "The drop in median home prices indicates buyers can be a little more selective in the search for a home that checks all their boxes. For buyers actively shopping for a homeand those who have been sitting on the fence waiting for their time to strikenow is the time to contact your REALTOR and get serious about buying a home."

Clare Losey, Ph.D., housing economist for ABoR, noted that elevated mortgage rates are contributing to the decline in home prices and an increase in active listings as homes remain on the market for longer.

"A rise in mortgage rates reduces buyers' purchasing power, so the moderation in home prices helped to offset some of the decline in affordability. However, rates peaked in late October and early November, signaling a rise in buyers' purchasing power moving into 2024.

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Austin Facts

• Median sales prices fell again. Median sales prices are at $424,450 which is an 8% decrease YOY.
• Closed sales were up 0.2% YOY. People are still buying even with higher rates.
• Months inventory fell month over month from 4.0 months to 3.7 months. This is still 0.7 months higher YOY.
• I helped a couple purchase a new build home last month. They were able to use our rebate to get $4,200 in credit at closing.

Austin-Round Rock


Bastrop County


Caldwell County


City of Austin


Hays County


Travis County


Williamson County

Midland

Odessa

Beaumont

BCS Stats are up!

No fancy summary chart this month

Midland is the weirdest place in the state. For both good and bad reasons.