10%? First timers 3-5% and repeat 15-20%

I've been waiting more than a decade for this. I want to see housing prices in Austin collapse so I can pick up a nice town lake condo cheap. Never waste a good pandemic.

Fedup said:

---

I've been waiting more than a decade for this. I want to see housing prices in Austin collapse so I can pick up a nice town lake condo cheap. Never waste a good pandemic.

---

If you don't want to waste the pandemic, why not buy investment property on the cheap as well, so that you can continue to take advantage of the pandemic and not just have a one off.

Locked in at 2.99%

Bad news for the pending housing bust. See WSJ article below.

Also, DR just had a nice earnings call. They are seeing lots of internet traffic for their Florida properties, particularly and predictably for those looking to leave the Northeast. There was a comment that Florida may more than make up for oil impact on Texas.

May be some buying opportunities in particular markets such as Houston and West Texas, but the concept of overall crashing residential real estate prices does not appear to be materializing.

From WSJ, "Why Homes Prices are Rising":
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-home-prices-are-rising-during-the-pandemic-11588671002?mod=hp_lead_pos6

Behind a paywall, so here is an excerpt.

"But that hasn't been the case so far. The median home price rose 8% year-over-year to $280,600 in March, according to the National Association of Realtors. While buyer demand has softened and sales fell 8.5% that month from the prior month, the supply of homes on the market is contracting even faster, recent preliminary data shows.

"Demand absolutely just got a kick in the gut, but at the same exact time, so did supply," said Skylar Olsen, senior principal economist at Zillow Group Inc."

You won't see the effects of O&G/Covid materialize in Houston overnight, but I would imagine in 6-9 months, there are some good buying opportunities.

Diggity said:

---

You won't see the effects of O&G/Covid materialize in Houston overnight, but I would imagine in 6-9 months, there are some good buying opportunities.

---

Much of the buying opportunity in 2008/2009 resulted from foreclosures and an oversupply in the housing market in general. Consensus in the last several years is that the builders never recovered to meet supply, particularly in Texas.

Where you may see some bigger buying opportunities will be in the second home market where people may be unloading those properties they can no longer afford or demand drops significantly enough due to same reason.

I think COVID has little downward impact to housing overall other than to cause a pause in buying / selling and also stagnate pricing a bit. The hardest hit part of the workforce are not typically homeowners.

Uncertainty is bad for a real estate market. There is a ton of that right now in Houston. To think that won't have an effect on the market is pretty optimistic.

Those stats are from March before the full extent of closures was upon us. I have to believe we're in for some grief in the Houston market and as Diggity says we won't really know until summer to fall what that may be.

2008-09 recession was different but the latest data we have. We had value loss but it was more gradual movement down then back up. Hard to tell when we are at bottom though. Most folks if they could just rode it out. Some were not able though. Foreclosures are a b**th to purchase so keep that in mind.

I hope you're right. I doubt many who own a retail store, restaurant, bar, salon, fuel distribution company, small manufacturing company, auto shop, commercial lease space or a great many other types of businesses are looking to make a move that maybe 3 - 6 months ago they thought was imminent. Demand. Covid-19 is having a significant effect on liquidity in the mortgage markets. The available loan products are many fewer than before Covid-19 so fewer potential buyers will qualify.

I agree that O&G will have a negative impact locally as well.

Shooter McGavin said:

---

Trying to help my Aggie son buy a house in East Dallas. We are battling others in multiple offer situations.

Real estate is local.

---

Tell him to wait 6 months until the potential fall out of covid happens. He may get some good deals by waiting. Worst case, he is in the same situation he's in right now. Best case (for him), well, you refuse to acknowledge the potential for best case, so I won't try to convince you.

You know the current listings and pricing is not an accurate reflection of what's going on in the world today. There is a delay. Everyone with a brain knows that.

Shooter McGavin said:

---

WoMD said:

---

Shooter McGavin said:

---

Trying to help my Aggie son buy a house in East Dallas. We are battling others in multiple offer situations.

Real estate is local.

---

Tell him to wait 6 months until the potential fall out of covid happens. He may get some good deals by waiting. Worst case, he is in the same situation he's in right now. Best case (for him), well, you refuse to acknowledge the potential for best case, so I won't try to convince you.

You know the current listings and pricing is not an accurate reflection of what's going on in the world today. There is a delay. Everyone with a brain knows that.

---

I forgot to check in with you. I mean, you know our real estate market area and local economy so much better than anyone else. How silly of me.

I'll let him know you said to wait it out.

Hey son, the condescending a-hole from San Francisco on the internet says everyone with a brain knows that you shouldn't buy a house right now in Dallas.

---

Glad you took a break from being the only one who can have an opinion on real estate to give me that opportunity. I appreciate it.

It must be tiring knowing more than everyone else. You should rest a bit.

WoMD said:

---

Shooter McGavin said:

---

WoMD said:

---

Shooter McGavin said:

---

Trying to help my Aggie son buy a house in East Dallas. We are battling others in multiple offer situations.

Real estate is local.

---

Tell him to wait 6 months until the potential fall out of covid happens. He may get some good deals by waiting. Worst case, he is in the same situation he's in right now. Best case (for him), well, you refuse to acknowledge the potential for best case, so I won't try to convince you.

You know the current listings and pricing is not an accurate reflection of what's going on in the world today. There is a delay. Everyone with a brain knows that.

---

I forgot to check in with you. I mean, you know our real estate market area and local economy so much better than anyone else. How silly of me.

I'll let him know you said to wait it out.

Hey son, the condescending a-hole from San Francisco on the internet says everyone with a brain knows that you shouldn't buy a house right now in Dallas.

---

Glad you took a break from being the only one who can have an opinion on real estate to give me that opportunity. I appreciate it.

It must be tiring knowing more than everyone else. You should rest a bit.

---

You're welcome.

Resting easy knowing that you're going to guide us. I mean, you weigh in on every thread so I'll just sit back and follow your vast knowledge.

Shooter McGavin said:

---

Trying to help my Aggie son buy a house in East Dallas. We are battling others in multiple offer situations.

Real estate is local.

---

Three of our four offers last week in Houston were multiple offer situations. The fourth, the seller refused to negotiate from asking price. Pretty crazy week, but listings are WAY down. This has some good info about supply and folks migrating from large cities to less dense areas:

Won't builders be the ones hurting? With market values way below rebuild costs, won't significant numbers of the "eewww, I could never live in a used home" crowd have to cave and buy a used home instead of a mcmansion 60 miles from town in a floodway?

I got three new build data points last week. One buyer looking at a $300k new build, one looking at a $400k new build, and someone told me about their buyer making an offer on a roughly $250k new build.

The $300k developer offered $20k in new/additional incentives. The $400k developer was offering $25k, and the $250k builder would not budge at all off original asking price. These were in Houston ($300k and $400k) and College Station ($250k).

agneck said:

---

When oil gets cheap in Texas you have people lose their jobs and lose their houses. Lenders will repossess then after a while they'll sell them cheap. Sometimes auctions have occurred. Save your money it's coming. They'll be lots of commercial properties get repoed too. Way over lended on that. N

---

Didn't read the thread, just the first post. Whatever. Unless this virus knocks the SE asian population down by 20% oil will be back shortly. What I am seeing is a lot more people better prepared and less leveraged than before.

There are so many damn programs in place now to prevent foreclosure that it is avoidable.

Prices are not dropping. There is a decreased supply. Just my .02 cents from Washington State to Maine along the West, Gulf, and East Coast where I am licensed.

Deats99 said:

---

agneck said:

---

When oil gets cheap in Texas you have people lose their jobs and lose their houses. Lenders will repossess then after a while they'll sell them cheap. Sometimes auctions have occurred. Save your money it's coming. They'll be lots of commercial properties get repoed too. Way over lended on that. N

---

Didn't read the thread, just the first post. Whatever. Unless this virus knocks the SE asian population down by 20% oil will be back shortly. What I am seeing is a lot more people better prepared and less leveraged than before.

There are so many damn programs in place now to prevent foreclosure that it is avoidable.

Prices are not dropping. There is a decreased supply. Just my .02 cents from Washington State to Maine along the West, Gulf, and East Coast where I am licensed.

---

OP has started threads similar to this one no less than 3 times, basically every time the price of oil drops, going back to 2016. Several more posts buried in other threads. He may be right (or not) on this occasion but he's batting .000 with his previous calls.

I feel like he goes back all the way to 2009 or before with these posts and never comes back after the OP. When I saw the post originally I was like oh here we go with this again.

Inventory is very tight and research from several markets across the country actually show values increasing.

I'm in the Dallas area. Neighbors down the street just sold their home in days to a buyer moving in from VA. Their realtor just contacted me and asked if I know of anyone else in this neighborhood looking to sell because she has another family moving from MN that wants to be in this neighborhood.

Hardly seems like a real estate market in distress.

In laws listed their house in Tyler yesterday. Accepted full price cash offer today.

Remember residential RE is an extremely lagging indicator. Think about it. You will pay the mortgage as long as you can. Months after losing your job. Then it's months more for a lender to foreclose.

SteveBott said:

---

Remember residential RE is an extremely lagging indicator. Think about it. You will pay the mortgage as long as you can. Months after losing your job. Then it's months more for a lender to foreclose.

---

We should just pause this thread until when real estate could actually be impacted. Maybe let it die and then bump in 4-6 months. Nothing seen in the real estate market right now should change yet, so observations currently seen as some sort of relevant evidence that there will be no impact is just silly. If these observations are seen in 6 months, then it will actually mean something. Right now, there is literally no reason to expect any sort of change, so using the current data as a projection for the actual impacts due to covid (if things persist longer without a complete reversal to our economic damage) is inherently flawed and completely useless. I would actually be shocked and skeptical if anyone claimed that prices are already going down, since there's no good reason for that to be occurring yet.

SteveBott said:

---

It's a discussion forum. But if you want to be a predictor you need those data sets now. Per Red Pear thread there was a 20% drop in sales in the first month of the virus. That is significant. Inflation has dropped dramatically. And of course unemployment.

So instead of looking a laggard indicator we should watch leading ones instead.

---

Interesting. Link for that red pear thread? Genuinely curious.

And I apologize for the smarminess. Just the whole back and forth of "everything is going to go down eventually because of this" vs "nuhuh, because in my individual case there is no change, so obviously there's no effect and I just proved it" seems a bit silly.

https://texags.com/forums/59/topics/3111842

Interesting data, gotta read through that carefully. My initial thoughts are that the current inventory situation will play out a lot differently than down the road once the economic hit actually impacts the housing market more directly. Once people have to sell out of distress financial situations (or foreclose) the inventory will shoot up, and catch up to the demand (which may or may not decrease). If it plays out this way then sales prices will (or should) drop.


Edited original post since read the info too fast.

My prediction is that May transactions will be way up YOY. Mid to late March my transactions going under contract went WAY down, which is that 20% number you see linked in the other thread. But what's important is pricing didn't slip. Sellers didn't panic. Fast forward to May, and listings are still WAY down, but the buyer pool is still there. I did three deals last week on the buy and sale side. Of those three, one went for full ask, and two went above ask with multiple offers.

Red your data was good. Hope you update the other metros you have access to. But plenty of miscellaneous data right now. For example the most job losses are lower paid jobs. They don't buy. But they do rent. I could guess investment property might see a predictor but more of the multi family stock.