AW 1880 said:
Don't normally join in the TexbrAgs, but according to those simulations, I'm on track to retire at 55, maintain current spending/salary, and have several multiples of my retirement at age 95. Also 0% failure in all cycles. I seriously had no idea I was in that kind of shape.
I think that is part of the failure (or perhaps a feature?) of the retirement industry today. There is so much focus on save/invest but not a ton on advice (well plenty of bad advice) for planning your actual retirement. Most groups have a very vested interest in you continuing to invest and grow and not to start drawing down.
Figuring out your retirement early is important. Too many don't have any actual plans and just continue working because that is what they think the expectation is. Figure out what you want to do, budget around it and plan.
How much of those future retirement ideas could be done now? Probably more than you think, especially if you're out there busting your butt right now. There is a certain point that your compounding does more work than your current investments and just need times to get there. When you reach that point, you have a few more options.
The SP500 has a historic rate around 10% - that doesn't mean the future will continue, but its a good baseline that you can then bump down to be as conservative as you want. Account for 3% inflation in your calculations one way or another which give the 7% return numbers you see referenced in so many places
Assuming 4% returns and 3% inflation is insanity though. You can beat that today in cash with a HYSA. Market returns should certainly be better.
I run my calcs to band my retirement years. I run an optimistic (based on my account returns) , Historic (sp500) and conservative values and that give me a range of years with the latest running to about age 55 for me.