Possibly the wrong forum, but for how much we gnash about business, saving money, and retirement on this thread, I figure there's enough crossover here.

So, now that we're halfway through the year, how are everyone's saving/spending/retirement accounts doing? How has the current political climate helped/hurt you? Did your positions bear fruit or blow up in your face? As prognosticators continue to predict a recession that has yet to happen, what do you think will happen in the 2H24?

Some of the big winners and losers of 1H24:

As economists debate whether we've officially entered the Semiconductor Revolution or another dot-com-style bubble, if you have your portfolio in these, you're likely 5-10 years closer to retirement than when you started the year...

NVIDIA +149.47%
Arm Holdings 117.74%
Taiwan Semiconductor +67.13%
Cred Tech +64.05%
Broadcomm +43.83%
Super Micron +54.13%
Qualcomm +37.72%
ASML 35.12%

Traditional Growth stocks have also crushed:

Eli Lilly +55.32%
Meta +42.45%
Google +30.15%
Wal Mart +28.85%
Amazon +27.19%
JP Morgan +18.91%
Microsoft +18.87%
Apple +9.4%

Other popular players have raged, some from the abyss:

Abercrombie & Fitch +95.51%
Spotify +66.99%
Applied Materials +45.61%
Chipotle +39.53%
General Motors +29.94%
Suncor +18.91%
ExxonMobil +15.14%

But there have to be losers. Here are some of the biggest, including major losses for EV companies:

Rivian -42.80%
Lotus -38.59%
Papa Johns -38.37%
Intel -38.37%
Nike - 30.58%
Boeing -30.17%
CVS -25.20%
Dollar Tree -24.84%
Tesla -20.36%
Starbucks -18.91%
Shopify -15.21%
McDonald's -14.05%
Comcast -10.70%

Logos Stick said:

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Abercrombie & Fitch?! What the heck?

Schiller PE is second highest on record. A major correction is imminent.

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Semiconductor Revolution? More like cargo shorts revolution, amiright?

Trajan88 said:

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What do you think...?
-No raise
-Bonus 1/2 of what was expected
-inflation rages

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Yikes!

Investments good...
Inflation bad....
Politics normal.....

About sums it up.

Left unchecked, the purchasing power of the gains will be less than today.

"if you have your portfolio in these, you're likely 5-10 years closer to retirement than when you started the year..."

If you sell and take some gains or believe they will hold the same value forever.

Aggie71013 said:

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"if you have your portfolio in these, you're likely 5-10 years closer to retirement than when you started the year..."

If you sell and take some gains or believe they will hold the same value forever.

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Isn't that the big question these days? Are we entering the next industrial revolution in which these companies are only scratching the surface, or are we in a bubble, with AI doomed to fail and be a case study years from now?

No doubt, NVIDIA's stock has oscillated wildly in recent weeks as investors take gains after a rip-roaring first half. Analysts still expect plenty of run for them to the end of 2024, with price targets anywhere from $140-$250 as the Blackwell hits the market, and August earnings are expected to be astronomical. The bigger question goes beyond that. In 12-18 months, will we see companies start to balk at the price of GPUs if they don't see the kind of returns they're looking for? Can these chips and power be scaled to the broader market beyond the mega-cap buyers?

Can competitors catch up? Moore's Law means it'll likely be years before any catches NVIDIA. Does TSMC's rapid growth and the advent of the Second Cold War with China drive their gains even higher, or will investors wary of Chinese invasion eventually pull back? Can Intel stop its freefall?

Are the Broadcoms and Qualcomms of the world uniquely positioned to capitalize on the massive growth that's expected over the next decade?

Are we going to see companies go from $3T to $6T in a matter of months? Is that sustainable? If this is the revolution tech people think it is, do we have to redefine "sustainable"?

I don't think anyone really knows for sure. One thing is for certain: fortunes have already been made, middle managers are being pushed into FI/RE territory, bigger fortunes are yet to come, and someone is going to lose big.

Endlessly fascinating stuff, and I'm stoked to see where it all goes.

I think the key reason AI is so popular despite not producing revenue yet(other than chip makers) is the current phase is thr training phase for AI.

Next phase will be revenue producing software. Maybe we hit a wall at that phase. I suspect we get some toys like we already have in chatGPT or whatever apple eventually releases that keeps the excitement about the potential around for a while

jamey said:

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I think the key reason AI is so popular despite not producing revenue yet(other than chip makers) is the current phase is thr training phase for AI.

Next phase will be revenue producing software. Maybe we hot a wall at that phase. I suspect we got some toys like we already have in chatGPT or whatever apple eventually releases that keeps the excitement about potential around for a while

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I know a programmer who works in engineering data for a company that's growing rapidly. He says the NVIDIA GPUs they use basically allow them to do 10x the work in 1/10th the time. Says it's been an absolute game changer and worth every penny. I have no idea how it all works, but this seems to be the word coming out of the computer engineering cubby holes.

jja79 said:

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I retired yesterday so the 2nd half is goig to be great.

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Rock on. Totes jelly.

Plan is to be retired in ~6 years... that's if the uninvited- to-the-employment-party boogie man doesn't get me first.

TTUArmy said:

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Bear take here...

I don't understand how AI can be so popular when it really isn't making any money yet. A company can just whisper the word "AI" in a brief statement and the charts go up and to the right. That sort of thing bears all the indicators of a mania. Enjoy it while it lasts! Have a clear exit strategy in place.

Anecdotal...

My neighbors are either retired boomers or small business people. Boomers are frugal, but doing alright. The small business neighbors are barely keeping their head above water and they have been in business for decades. Definitely not their first rodeo with economic downturns. And, several of them with multiple businesses struggling. It's not looking too rosey on main street America.

Naturally, always happy when others are doing well. Personally, I've made money this year, but I'm not willfully blind or anything to the distress in the overall economy. It looks like it's getting tougher and tougher on the lower end of the labor spectrum to make the ends meet. Market sentiment is just way too much bull for me.

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Can't help but compare this somewhat to the dot-com bubble.

Up 41% YTD. Expect that number to dissipate though.

YouBet said:

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TTUArmy said:

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Bear take here...

I don't understand how AI can be so popular when it really isn't making any money yet. A company can just whisper the word "AI" in a brief statement and the charts go up and to the right. That sort of thing bears all the indicators of a mania. Enjoy it while it lasts! Have a clear exit strategy in place.

Anecdotal...

My neighbors are either retired boomers or small business people. Boomers are frugal, but doing alright. The small business neighbors are barely keeping their head above water and they have been in business for decades. Definitely not their first rodeo with economic downturns. And, several of them with multiple businesses struggling. It's not looking too rosey on main street America.

Naturally, always happy when others are doing well. Personally, I've made money this year, but I'm not willfully blind or anything to the distress in the overall economy. It looks like it's getting tougher and tougher on the lower end of the labor spectrum to make the ends meet. Market sentiment is just way too much bull for me.

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Can't help but compare this somewhat to the dot-com bubble.

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Definite comparisons, although there are some veeery important differences.

(1) Dot-com companies were flooded with funds without showing a profit or even having a business plan, whereas AI/semiconductor companies and their customers are already making money hand over fist, and most of these companies have been around for decades.

(2) PE ratios for the dot-com companies were also magnitudes higher. Cisco, the poster child for the dot-com bubble, had a PE ratio of 201 at the time of its crash. NVIDIA's ratio, while still high, is just 1/3 of that, and its earnings are expected to continue growing by multiples for at least the next year.

(3) Cisco actually had declining revenues and margins while its stock soared, which is why it's hard to fathom what people saw. This isn't a problem for semiconductor companies whose revenue is growing faster than their supply can keep up.

(4) EVERYTHING uses semiconductors. It's not an industry that will decline. It simply can't for society to exist in the 21st century. AI applications could definitely slow, but it would only be a temporary setback from Moore's Law.

I had one AI engineer explain to me, paraphrased, that the AI freakout is a bit of a misnomer. AI has been around in some form for decades. It's just that GPUs have created that next step in the growth process, the first that can now be readily applied to an infinite number of industries.

Basically, none of this is "new". It's just that people are paying attention to it. He likens it to when steam power was transitioned into an engine and believes it will 100% change the way everything is done, but likely in ways we don't expect. Progress is unlikely linear but rather a stop-and-start gaggle encompassing decades. He said people always think about the Industrial Revolution as a monolith, but it went in in a herky-jerky motion that took sixty years to fully materialize.

Should have bought spy on Jan 1 and lost my password.

Hey, at least I have hundreds of transactions to show for my sub-par performance.

El Chupacabra said:

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Hey, at least I have hundreds of transactions to show for my sub-par performance.

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Sounds familiar. I have a bunch of small winners offset by a blocked punt in my own end zone.

BassCowboy33 said:

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YouBet said:

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TTUArmy said:

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Bear take here...

I don't understand how AI can be so popular when it really isn't making any money yet. A company can just whisper the word "AI" in a brief statement and the charts go up and to the right. That sort of thing bears all the indicators of a mania. Enjoy it while it lasts! Have a clear exit strategy in place.

Anecdotal...

My neighbors are either retired boomers or small business people. Boomers are frugal, but doing alright. The small business neighbors are barely keeping their head above water and they have been in business for decades. Definitely not their first rodeo with economic downturns. And, several of them with multiple businesses struggling. It's not looking too rosey on main street America.

Naturally, always happy when others are doing well. Personally, I've made money this year, but I'm not willfully blind or anything to the distress in the overall economy. It looks like it's getting tougher and tougher on the lower end of the labor spectrum to make the ends meet. Market sentiment is just way too much bull for me.

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Can't help but compare this somewhat to the dot-com bubble.

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Definite comparisons, although there are some veeery important differences.

(1) Dot-com companies were flooded with funds without showing a profit or even having a business plan, whereas AI/semiconductor companies and their customers are already making money hand over fist, and most of these companies have been around for decades.

(2) PE ratios for the dot-com companies were also magnitudes higher. Cisco, the poster child for the dot-com bubble, had a PE ratio of 201 at the time of its crash. NVIDIA's ratio, while still high, is just 1/3 of that, and its earnings are expected to continue growing by multiples for at least the next year.

(3) Cisco actually had declining revenues and margins while its stock soared, which is why it's hard to fathom what people saw. This isn't a problem for semiconductor companies whose revenue is growing faster than their supply can keep up.

(4) EVERYTHING uses semiconductors. It's not an industry that will decline. It simply can't for society to exist in the 21st century. AI applications could definitely slow, but it would only be a temporary setback from Moore's Law.

I had one AI engineer explain to me, paraphrased, that the AI freakout is a bit of a misnomer. AI has been around in some form for decades. It's just that GPUs have created that next step in the growth process, the first that can now be readily applied to an infinite number of industries.

Basically, none of this is "new". It's just that people are paying attention to it. He likens it to when steam power was transitioned into an engine and believes it will 100% change the way everything is done, but likely in ways we don't expect. Progress is unlikely linear but rather a stop-and-start gaggle encompassing decades. He said people always think about the Industrial Revolution as a monolith, but it went in in a herky-jerky motion that took sixty years to fully materialize.

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Best I can remember, Cisco got caught trying to keep up with demand for new equipment, then got caught holding the bag when the bubble popped. Customers rescinded their orders as contracts for network expansion projects evaporated overnight. That left Cisco with a lot of network devices in their inventory that later sold at deeply discounted prices. I also remember watching Cisco's stock plummet. It took awhile to recover. The only reason I remember this is due to being one of the guys working at a major telecom who had to rescind those pre-orders.

I see the same thing happening with NVDA GPUs, and to a degree, semiconductors as well. Thanks for your point of view. I guess we'll have to see how it all plays out.

TTUArmy said:

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BassCowboy33 said:

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YouBet said:

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TTUArmy said:

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Bear take here...

I don't understand how AI can be so popular when it really isn't making any money yet. A company can just whisper the word "AI" in a brief statement and the charts go up and to the right. That sort of thing bears all the indicators of a mania. Enjoy it while it lasts! Have a clear exit strategy in place.

Anecdotal...

My neighbors are either retired boomers or small business people. Boomers are frugal, but doing alright. The small business neighbors are barely keeping their head above water and they have been in business for decades. Definitely not their first rodeo with economic downturns. And, several of them with multiple businesses struggling. It's not looking too rosey on main street America.

Naturally, always happy when others are doing well. Personally, I've made money this year, but I'm not willfully blind or anything to the distress in the overall economy. It looks like it's getting tougher and tougher on the lower end of the labor spectrum to make the ends meet. Market sentiment is just way too much bull for me.

---

Can't help but compare this somewhat to the dot-com bubble.

---

Definite comparisons, although there are some veeery important differences.

(1) Dot-com companies were flooded with funds without showing a profit or even having a business plan, whereas AI/semiconductor companies and their customers are already making money hand over fist, and most of these companies have been around for decades.

(2) PE ratios for the dot-com companies were also magnitudes higher. Cisco, the poster child for the dot-com bubble, had a PE ratio of 201 at the time of its crash. NVIDIA's ratio, while still high, is just 1/3 of that, and its earnings are expected to continue growing by multiples for at least the next year.

(3) Cisco actually had declining revenues and margins while its stock soared, which is why it's hard to fathom what people saw. This isn't a problem for semiconductor companies whose revenue is growing faster than their supply can keep up.

(4) EVERYTHING uses semiconductors. It's not an industry that will decline. It simply can't for society to exist in the 21st century. AI applications could definitely slow, but it would only be a temporary setback from Moore's Law.

I had one AI engineer explain to me, paraphrased, that the AI freakout is a bit of a misnomer. AI has been around in some form for decades. It's just that GPUs have created that next step in the growth process, the first that can now be readily applied to an infinite number of industries.

Basically, none of this is "new". It's just that people are paying attention to it. He likens it to when steam power was transitioned into an engine and believes it will 100% change the way everything is done, but likely in ways we don't expect. Progress is unlikely linear but rather a stop-and-start gaggle encompassing decades. He said people always think about the Industrial Revolution as a monolith, but it went in in a herky-jerky motion that took sixty years to fully materialize.

---

Best I can remember, Cisco got caught trying to keep up with demand for new equipment, then got caught holding the bag when the bubble popped. Customers rescinded their orders as contracts for network expansion projects evaporated overnight. That left Cisco with a lot of network devices in their inventory that later sold at deeply discounted prices. I also remember watching Cisco's stock plummet. It took awhile to recover. The only reason I remember this is due to being one of the guys working at a major telecom who had to rescind those pre-orders.

I see the same thing happening with NVDA GPUs, and to a degree, semiconductors as well. Thanks for your point of view. I guess we'll have to see how it all plays out.

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I can totally see NVIDIA get caught holding the bag in the near-term. But I still believe we're at least a year away from that. Long-term, I think they'll be fine. Their software business is growing nearly as fast as their GPU side, so they're diversified for the long haul.

Semiconductors are here to stay, and if there is a WWIII in our future, this is likely what it will be fought over. You can't start a car, make a phone call, turn on a light, launch a missile, run the A/C, power up a computer, post on a messageboard, or make a cup of coffee without semiconductors. Their demand is stupidly high and will only get stupidly higher as tech in all industries continues to progress. (I had an engineer tell me recently, "'Tech industry' is a silly term. Everything these days is tech.'"

American car companies briefly, and foolishly, canceled their chip orders during COVID, and it launched the American auto industry into a tailspin that took over a year to recover from. Any actual delay or pause in semiconductor manufacturing would kill the economy in frightfully short order. That calamity is what got the Fed's attention that led to the CHIPS Act.

That legislation is why America is spending so much to build out its semiconductor manufacturing facilities as it races against China. Allied crackdown on China's semiconductor supply chain is a huge reason they've struggled mightily over the past few years.

Edit: That's not to say the demand for semiconductors will always be high in the short term. If the mysterious recession that's been called for for over a year hits this fall, could orders be canceled? Yes, in a way. So, there might be a play there as well.

EliteZags said:

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already exceeded annual income in gains, with 6 figures coming from both indexes/ETF's and individual stocks(mostly PLTR)

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Rich.

IGM up around 27% this year.

EliteZags said:

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already exceeded annual income in gains, with 6 figures coming from both indexes/ETF's and individual stocks(mostly PLTR)

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I think putting a chunk in an S&P 500 ETF is a great long-haul move.

portfolio is prob close to 40-50% VOO/VTSAX, and another 20% more concentrated ETF's (mostly VUG/SMH)

not touching PLTR gains til triple digits several years down

My stocks make more money than I do.

I want to quit my job, but don't want to pay for my health insurance. Kind of strange that I am willing to trade my time on earth and agree to stare at a computer screen for 8 hours a day, in order to extend my time on earth via health insurance.

My goal is working 10 more years and retire when I am 58. My kids are set up with degrees that allow them to earn a living (nursing). I feel like my work is done. Just want a quiet life. The Vanity Fair has little that interests me anymore.

Tumble Weed said:

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My stocks make more money than I do.

I want to quit my job, but don't want to pay for my health insurance. Kind of strange that I am willing to trade my time on earth and agree to stare at a computer screen for 8 hours a day, in order to extend my time on earth via health insurance.

My goal is working 10 more years and retire when I am 58. My kids are set up with degrees that allow them to earn a living (nursing). I feel like my work is done. Just want a quiet life. The Vanity Fair has little that interests me anymore.

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Conan, what is a good life?

the bold is in my portfolio:

NVIDIA +149.47%
Arm Holdings 117.74%
Taiwan Semiconductor +67.13%
Cred Tech +64.05%
Broadcomm +43.83%
Super Micron +54.13%
Qualcomm +37.72%
ASML 35.12%

Traditional Growth stocks have also crushed:

Eli Lilly +55.32%
Meta +42.45%
Google +30.15%
WalMart +28.85%
Amazon +27.19%
JP Morgan +18.91%
Microsoft +18.87%
Apple +9.4%

Other popular players have raged, some from the abyss:

Abercrombie & Fitch +95.51%
Spotify +66.99%
Applied Materials +45.61%
Chipotle +39.53%
General Motors +29.94%
Suncor +18.91%
ExxonMobil +15.14%