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I'll try to speak accordingly from that viewpoint. I trust based on your conversations you don't find Austrian economics at all interesting and trust Keynes's views?
I'm a chicago guy though I love hayek and austrian economics. I've never been a particular fan of keynes though he doesn't deserve the hate he gets. Generally what people think of with keynes is govt spending money in a downturn but they forget he said they should cut back and save when things are good.
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I am a retailer, and the majority of the appliances being sold today come from a pretty small selection of brands owned by a smaller subset of manufacturers, the longevity are all the least of any generation prior.
The lack of competition in this space due to regulatory capture, lobbying and unproductive reductive strategies implemented by the largest entities encouraging consolidation is a major reason we are here, imo.
50 yr pre-nixon appliances still work, but I'm pulling 2-10 year appliances regularly out of people's homes. The economics/game theory of bitcoin trend toward low time preference at personal and business levels. If unfamiliar with low or high time preference, I'd recommend the due diligence on the topics, relates with mental health pretty heavily.
There is heavy competition in appliances though fewer players than yesteryear due to it being a global economy. Consumers preferences have changed and their disposable income has changed where we do not value something working a long time and prefer something we think is better and use it for a short time. BTC will have absolutely zero effect on this.
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what about mental health, divorce, small business failure are you familiar with? Have you tried to read much on the topic or engage in discourse with experts? I'd expect someone who's never pondered on the topic to respond this way.
I feel pretty well read on mental health and deeply sympathetic to it though I have not personally had issues with it. I have not personally been divorced but my wife was previously married and I am deeply sympathetic to it. I have 3 businesses. This is an annoying train of thought because you claim no special knowledge of these subjects but frame it in a position that assumes I have no knowledge of these things. I do not know what your knowledge base is on these things or anything we have talked about but I am not approaching everything like I am the smarty pants and you are the dummy head.
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1. Money problems are one of the top reasons for divorce.
Resolution bitcoin encourage low time preference, meaning monetary alignment on low time preference goods and services and foods and activities. Eschewing the overconsumption promoted on TV and ads and pharma and social networks, of everything.
"Low time preference is a term generally used in economics or evolutionary psychology to describe an individual that places emphasis on long-term gains, is able to delay gratification, make sacrifices, and live in a future oriented fashion."
The only connection between BTC and low time preference is that it may be worth more if you can buy it and hold it for some time like an investment. There is a whole industry for investing. BTC isn't a unique solution in this regard and just like index funds it is irrelevant if you are living paycheck to paycheck and don't have the ability to put money aside.
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2. Mental health: financial stress is a tremendous precursor to a breakdown or loss of home, Abusive substance disorders, depression etc.
Empirical Studies show that depressed individuals have an increased/heightened time preference, meaning less value placed on the future in lieu of the present. There's a great reason why Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (among others) is so productive for many depressed people.
Similarly a Game Theory that increases a preferences towards future goals increases agency and reduces depression and other negative mental health problems. I think bitcoin is perfectly aligned here, but maybe I'm too naive.
This is just a rehash of the previous. There are a million investment options to provide future benefits. BTC isn't unique. These all require actually having extra money to invest in that future.
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3. Small biz failure, see #1&2 above as primary small business failure points. Reductions of either increases the potential success rate of SMBs.
There are a million options to invest in. BTC isn't a unique solution and like all the others it requires actually having extra money to put into it.
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fair critique. The nature of bitcoin is rules without rulers. It's building a parallel economy all it's own that's global interconnected and fungible instantly everywhere. If you remove the monetary policy burden from governments there is far less to regulate and far less control over those regulations. The regulatory problems correct themselves through sheer inefficiency.
Every crypto has this ability. There is no significant parallel economy for any crypto and certainly not any that wouldn't be crushed if the govt decided to crack down on btc eth or anything else. BTC doesn't remove any monetary policy from govts and doesn't limit any regulation or control.
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BTC won't stop inflation or replace fiat.
never claimed it would, but bitcoins inflation is regulated for 140 years, it's not debased every 4 years with a new administration. Consistency in the game is paramount and underappreciated by you. Imo.
Fiat is far more consistent in the US with pretty normal inflation over decades. The target is 2%. BTC is all over the place. There is no consistency.
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This line of thinking always implies people are working their whole lives and stuffing money under there mattress and it is suddenly worth less.
I see the fear in people's eyes everyday when their 30 year old appliance fails and now they're stuck buying new ones every 5-10 years or less. Inflation is just one aspect of the problem
BTC does absolutely nothing to solve this.
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Nobody should be sticking their money under the mattress. why would anyone be incentivized to stick debased money under a mattress? That serves nothing except distrust in banks unlesd youre completely unbankable
They aren't and they don't. If they have extra money they invest it. BTC maxis pretend people stuff money in their mattress and pull it out years later having lost money. BTC is just another option for those with money to stuff it but there is a trillion dollar industry already addressing this problem.
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We already have investment solutions for this and for those who never had money to spare and invest BTC doesn't help. everyone can afford .000000001 BTC, whether investing their time/energy or money.
Not everyone can but anybody with extra money could put it in BTC or the stock market or many investments.
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I don't know what institutions you are referring to but BTC isn't replacing any institutions. TBD
No industries are disappearing because of BTC. TBD (watch western union)
Regulation will still exist and big businesses whether they be banks or amazon. and the parallel economy will continue to be built simultaneously and one will eventually supercede the other
I do think crypto can be great for cross border transfers but any crypto can do that. BTC isn't unique about that. Still western union and moneygram exist. There is no parallel economy in any meaningful way right now for any crypto.
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cannabis has been considered a massive snake oil campaign as well. Those studied in its actual research and anecdotal evidence have seen tremendous benefits in such a large swath of areas its a huge mystery why it does what it does.
Recent research proves an endocannabinoid system exists that regulates homeostasis of all the organs.
Now we are testing different chemicals (some plant based, some lab made) to work on these specific receptors.
Imagine telling someone 20-50 years ago that a cannabinoid called CBD which is grown in weed stops people from having seizures. That for thousands and thousands of years pre-dating christianity cannabis has been used for jewish mysticism and ancient chinese/Tibetan medicines, let alone to manage pain, sleep, stress, etc.
I think culturally we have done cannabis a disservice and I hate that. I want it to be legal and to be used in every practical way. I am not informed about all your claims here and all your claims here don't make your insane claims about btc true.
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Nothing remains unchanged, including the USD. We are either adopting a cashless CBDC or headed towards a bitcoin standard. Possibly both simultaneously. I know which I'd rather because I know who is untrustworthy, and what trustless means.
The bitcoin standard is an absolute fantasy. Nobody in economics takes deflationary currency seriously. It has no basis in reality.
