Bonfire1996 said:Man I don't know. I haven't given it that much thought.YouBet said:Do you think blue areas within Texas (Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso) are outliers to this though? Honest question.Bonfire1996 said:Seven Costanza said:
One of the fundamental long-term issues is the shortage of homes. We have basically lost a decade of new home construction, something that seems nearly impossible to catch up to.
The chart is for new homes completed.Seven Costanza said:
One of the fundamental long-term issues is the shortage of homes. We have basically lost a decade of new home construction, something that seems nearly impossible to catch up to.
The chart is for new homes completed.
From 2007-2017 I was in homebuilding supply. Coming out of the crash, this chart was my lifeblood.
Did you know: it takes 1.5 million units of housing built annually just to make demand equilibrium. Tear downs, urban sprawl, immigration, education growth, age growth, wealth creation, printed money all factor into an equilibrium of 1.5 million units needing to be built annually.
So you nailed it with your question. How do we catch up to demand with that lost decade from 2010-2020? The answer is with supply. That's the only answer. It's why I answered on page 1 that the only areas who will experience a real estate correction are politically blue areas where people will flee.
In Texas, you won't have price corrections. You may have price stagnation, but when rates return to historical lows in 2023-2024, say hello to California housing prices and a metric shlt ton of Multifamily construction.
Austin is already falling from its peak based on other articles I've read but they were also an extreme outlier, nationally. Dallas seems to still be a hot market although we are seeing homes around us cutting prices. I would argue they put first prices out there that were simply stupid but they are still selling very highly. I'm talking about homes in the $750K+ though.
I think Texas blues won't feel the pain like all others simply because all the jobs are moving here. Will see price drops but shouldn't drop as much as everywhere else.
Our house right now is sitting at almost $1M on realtor.com which is absolutely insane to me, but comp houses around us are still going for $850 to 1M.
Just so crazy I still don't believe we could remotely get that but who the hell knows.